SANJAY KUMAR, former Director of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), is currently Co-Director of LOKNITI, a CSDS Research Programme. His published books and edited volumes include Elections in India, Women Voters in Indian Elections, Post Mandal Politics in Bihar, Indian Youth and Electoral Politics: An Emerging Engagement, Changing Electoral Politics in Delhi: From Caste to Class, Measuring Voting Behaviour in India (with Praveen Rai), Rise of the Plebeians? The Changing Face of Indian Legislative Assemblies (with Christophe Jaffrelot), and Indian Youth in a Transforming World: Attitudes and Perceptions (with Peter R de Souza and Sandeep Shastri). A renowned Psephologist and Political Commentator, he has also served as international election observer in many countries. In an interview with MOHD NAUSHAD KHAN, he said the Muslim vote bank will be used as a trump card if all other strategies would seem like failing. Excerpts:
In today’s context what is the meaning and significance of Muslim votes?
If we look at the demography of Muslim population, they are in the range of roughly 13 to 14 percent of India’s population. Historically, Muslims to some extent are seen as a sort of vote bank. They have been voting for the same party over a period of time, that is Congress. For Congress, the Muslim vote has been very important throughout its course as a political party and that is how this whole concept of the Muslim vote bank has emerged in India. Initially, if I look at the initial four-five decades post-independence, there was no commotion around the issue of Muslim votes because the political competition was very less and the Congress was the dominant party nationally as well as in many states. There was no debate or contestation on Muslim vote bank or Yadav vote bank and so on.
But things have taken a different path over the last two decades, especially after the implementation of the Mandal Commission Report. As a result, regional parties like RJD, JDU, SP, BSP, BJD, etc. especially in North India states have started playing a very important role in Indian politics. As the role of these parties gained importance in the state’s politics and some even in national politics, Muslim voters started looking forward to an alternative to Congress because they started realizing that even though they have been voting for the Congress and have stood behind the Congress over a period of time they have not been benefited accordingly. They never thought of voting for the BJP because of BJP’s Hindutva ideology.
So, Muslim votes started shifting towards regional parties in many states. This is when the whole concept of Muslim vote bank emerged and contestation around Muslim votes started happening. The Congress started realising, though a little too late that this was a crucial vote bank for them and it has moved away and started inclining towards regional parties.
This is when the BJP came to play an important role in national politics in the late 90s because in 1998 they came for the first time to power in alliance with other parties. So, they realised that this was one group around which one could play politics. I say politics, because they kept sending out messages that this is a vote bank and because of this vote bank the Congress has been in power for so many years and now it has shifted towards many regional parties, leaving Congress behind. The BJP then tried to create a perception that the Congress has given undue favour to the Muslims while Muslims remained loyal to the Congress.
This led to another message being sent out that among all parties, the BJP is the only party which is championing the cause of Hindutva. All other parties are playing the game of Muslim vote bank. This is how the concept of Muslim vote bank has emerged in India. During the 60’s, 70’s, 80’s and even early 90’s there was no discussion around the Muslim vote bank. The Congress now wants to win the Muslims back to their fold and the BJP still wants to send a signal that Muslims had always voted for the Congress and that is why they were given preference by the Congress which led to the Hindus being neglected. This is the reason why the BJP has gained so much in national politics by mobilising the Hindus.
The BJP has always charged the Congress and regional parties with appeasement politics but the Sachar Committee Report and all other indicators do not justify BJP’s claim. How would you like to respond to that?
Present day politics is all about narratives and nobody is looking at the evidence. If you talk about the performance of the present government, we can keep on mentioning several things such as how the narrative has become so important and how common voters are not even looking at the evidence and that applies to what you mentioned about the Muslims.
If you were to look at any data (the data is the evidence) whether it is Muslims’ participation in government jobs, their level of educational attainment or representation in assemblies and parliament, you cite any data, you won’t find Muslims doing very well or are well-off as compared to other communities in the country. But there is this narrative that has been created around the appeasement of Muslims. The narrative is that Muslims have not only been favoured but also helped at the cost of the Hindus. The narrative is that Congress and regional parties have always favoured Muslims.
What would be the value of Muslim votes in the upcoming assembly elections and 2024 Lok Sabha polls?
As you have used the phrase ‘the value of vote’, technically Ambani’s and any poor citizen’s vote carry the same value. But we are talking of Muslims as a vote bank. If you look at the states which go to polls in the next three to four months, there is very little talk of the Muslim vote. The states which go to polls are Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram. If you look at Rajasthan, Muslims are roughly 8 to 9 percent, in Madhya Pradesh it is almost the same and Chhattisgarh even less. So, mobilization or contestation around Muslim votes is going to be very less in the assembly elections. If we talk about Telangana, there are sizable numbers of Muslim voters. In Telangana, focus would be how to mobilise the Muslim votes by the ruling BRS. In Mizoram, there won’t be any discussion about Muslim vote only.
That is why we look at the strategy of all political parties. Look at how the Congress is strategizing in Madhya Pradesh. We don’t see any statements which would be favoring the Muslims. Look at all the initiatives taken by the Congress, which is being led by Kamalnath in Madhya Pradesh. It is all in the path of taking soft Hindutva lines while some even suggest aggressive Hindutva lines. So, in the coming assembly election neither the Congress will talk of the Muslim votes nor the BJP because BJP in these states will not gain anything by targeting appeasement politics. In these states Muslim votes do not matter. If it were Assam, West Bengal, Bihar and UP going to polls, they would have been contesting around Muslim votes. Click the link to read full interview: https://radiancenews.com/in-2024-bjp-will-play-muslim-card-only-when-they-realise-they-arent-winning-says-prof-sanjay-kumar/