Union Home Minister Amit Shah recently claimed that India’s Muslim population is growing uncontrollably and linked this rise to “infiltrators.” However, official data from the Census and National Family Health Survey (NFHS) shows a different reality. Over the past seven decades, the fertility rate among Indian Muslims has dropped sharply, reflecting one of the most consistent demographic shifts in the country.
India’s Muslim population rose from 3.54 crore in 1951 to 17.23 crore in 2011, but the growth rate fell from 32.77 per cent in 1950s to 24.67 per cent in 2011. NFHS data confirms the same trend. Muslim fertility rates declined from 3.59 in 1998-99 to 3.09 in 2005-06, 2.61 in 2015-16, and 2.36 in 2019-21. Experts say this decline places Muslims close to India’s replacement fertility level, contradicting political claims of a population surge.
Analysts attribute the decline to better healthcare, lower child mortality, and gradual improvements in female literacy, especially in states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Rising living costs and urban migration have also made large families less sustainable.
Some scholars point to deeper causes. They argue that growing social insecurity, anti-Muslim rhetoric, and limited inclusion in development policies have made Muslim families more cautious about expanding. The trend, they say, reflects adaptation to a challenging environment rather than unchecked population growth.