US President Donald Trump, it seems, is badly caught in a strategicquagmire mainly owing to his intense hatred for Iran. By militarilyattacking Iran on February 28, 2026, without any provocation, hisadministration came out with a congenitally defective policy, bound toprove harmful for the US as well as the rest of the world. The policysuited Israel, the American ally in West Asia, but not the US,struggling to save its status as the sole surviving power. The USmilitarily coming down heavily on Iran with Israel in tow led toIsrael suffering massive military and economic losses it had neverexpected at the hands of Iran. But the US suffered more than Israel.Chances are that the US standing in the comity of nations may never bethe same again. The very super power status of the US has come to bequestioned.
Besides this, the course the US took on that fateful February day hasshaken the world’s most powerful military alliance, NATO, by its very foundations. The Trumpadministration’s poorly thought-out military adventure has damagedWashington’s image among its Arab allies beyond repair. The Arabcountries, having American military bases, turned out to be sittingducks when Iran made retaliatory attacks on them with the US unable tocome to their rescue effectively. The birth of the NATO-style Makkahmilitary alliance involving Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan was notwithout reason.
Washington’s primary twin-objectives of regime change andincapacitating Iran to the extent that it could never be able to makethe ultimate weapon, the nuclear bomb, remain only wishful thinking.The killing of the top Iranian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hadlittle effect on the government in Teheran. It rather fought doggedlyto defeat the American designs with the same vigour it could havedisplayed under the late Ayatollah’s leadership.
So far as Iran’s nuclear programme is concerned, the global communityis not sure that it has been totally obliterated. There are clearindications that Iran’s nuclear facilities – meant for peacefulpurposes in accordance with Teheran’s declarations – are very muchintact and may start functioning again as these did earlier. That iswhy the Vienna-based global nuclear watchdog, the International AtomicEnergy Agency (IAEA), has approached the UN Security Council allegingIran’s non-compliance with the provisions of the NuclearNon-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) despite being one of its signatories.
It is a different matter that the IAEA move, aimed at imposing freshsanctions on Iran, will remain ineffective as Iran’s two powerfulallies, Russia and China, are permanent members of the SecurityCouncil having the veto power. They were absentees at the IAEA boardof governors’ meeting at Vienna held for the purpose.
Reports suggest that the Trump administration is greatly unnervedowing to the predictions that the Iran war factor may impact theperformance of the Republican Party in the November mid-term House ofRepresentatives elections so much so that the Grand Old Party may beunable to retain its majority in the US Congress (parliament).
President Trump’s popularity rating has gone down considerably as USvoters are yet to get convinced about the reason why America alloweditself to be caught in a quagmire from where it would not be able tocome out unharmed. The situation is very pitiable for theConservatives so far as the November elections are concerned becauseof President Trump, being in a state of virtual hallucination,insisting on the crucial battle of the ballot to be treated as areferendum on his performance whereas most of his party candidateswant the polls to be fought on the basis of their own record.
In any case, if the situation remains as it is today, the GOP willneither have a majority in the House of Representatives nor in the USSenate. Which means the Trump administration may not remain as mucheffective for the rest of its term (two years) as it has been so far.
In view of all this, President Trump’s close advisers are reportedlybusy devising a strategy to ensure that America appears to be a clearwinner in the war against Iran, at least in the estimation of the USvoters. The strategy involves crippling the Iranian economy andisolating the Islamic Republic in West Asia. They are working overtimethese days to revive the Abraham Accords, dumped in the dustbin ofhistory following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, with aview to establishing diplomatic relations between the Jewish state andits Muslim Arab neighbours. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan hadalready signed the accords with US mediation. Egypt has beenmaintaining diplomatic relations with Israel since both signed a PeaceTreaty on March 26, 1979, following the Camp David Accords ofSeptember 17, 1978. Saudi Arabia was about to be roped in to accordits approval to the Abraham Accords, but the move was scuttled by theHamas-Israel military hostilities. The latest stand of the Saudis isthat the kingdom will move ahead in this regard only if the AbrahamAccords lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
Connected with this Trump idea is the Gaza Peace Plan, which came intobeing with the beginning of the implementation of the Hamas-Israelceasefire agreement on October 10, 2025. The Gaza Peace Plan’simplementation may be speeded up under the Board of Peace set up forthe purpose. The idea is to completely isolate Iran in West Asia as itwill have nothing to do with the planned change in the reality in theregion.
However, the US strategy is unlikely to metamorphose the situation inthe region as the far-right parties aligned with the BenjaminNetanyahu government in Israel are deadly opposed to any idea for anindependent Palestinian homeland. In the absence of a clear commitmentand plan to establish a Palestinian state, Saudi Arabia may never
become a part of the Abraham Accords as it has stated.
The second part of the Trumpian strategy – the economic squeezing ofIran – too, is unlikely to succeed under the prevailingcircumstances. The US sanctions on Iran’s oil and gas exports have notbeen as much effective as Washington had calculated these to be owingto the maximum (between 80 per cent and 90 per cent) oil exports fromIran going to China under a barter system, introduced for the purpose.
Iran gets credits for its exports to China and uses these credits tobuy military equipment, medicines, vehicles, etc. This secret tradingarrangement with China serves as the economic lifeline for Iran,bypassing the banking channel. The China-Iran barter system makes theUS economic sanctions almost ineffective. What can be the Trumpadministration’s next move in its drive against Iran will beinteresting to watch for.
[The writer, a former Dy Editor of The Tribune, is a New Delhi-basedpolitical commentator.]