If the Iran-Saudi Arabia Accord succeeds, as is being expected, it is likely to change the scenario in the Middle East. The Arab League has already softened its stand against Syria, gathers Soroor Ahmed
It would be premature to state as to who had emerged winner after theIran-Saudi Arabia Accord brokered by China on March 10, but one thingcan be said with certainty: the loser is the United States and to someextent its western allies as well as Israel.
All this is happening when the West is already facing a grim challengein Ukraine. Notwithstanding its hard and soft powers and media control,the US-led NATO had to withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq and thus inthe process left an opportunity for Iran to increase its influence.
Needless to mention Iran lies between Iraq and Afghanistan and boththe military operations were carried against these two countries in2003 and 2001 to encircle the Islamic Republic.
Earlier, it was the West and the Gulf monarchies which provoked andfully backed the then Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein, to attack Iran onSeptember 22, 1980, that is just a year and a half after the IslamicRevolution there on February 11, 1979.
The idea was to counter Iran, which under the leadership of AyatollahKhomeini, overthrew the US-puppet Raza Shah, the last emperor of thecountry. The war lasted for eight long years leading to the death oflakhs of people. The West and its allies failed in their objective. Astrict sanction was imposed on Iran which continues till now.
A couple of years after the end of eight-year long war Iraq picked upa quarrel with good friend Kuwait and on August 2, 1990 occupied it.This led to the first NATO operation against Iraq and liberation ofKuwait in January-February 1991. But Saddam was not removed then as hewas still considered a buffer to the bigger enemy Iran. Now strictsanction was imposed on Iraq. This led to the death of lakhs, mostlychildren, who perished because of the non-supply of medicine and milkin the war devastated country.
However, on March 19, 2003 the West launched the Second Gulf Warleading to the killing of lakhs of, once again, innocent Iraqis. TheNATO expedition was carried out on the plea that the Saddam regime wasdeveloping nuclear bomb or weapon of mass destruction and harbouringAl-Qaida bigwigs, such as Osama bin Laden. This was a blatant liedeliberately spread to drum up support from the internationalcommunity.
This was more than a year after the similar operation in Afghanistanfollowing the suicide attack on Twin Towers and Pentagon on September11, 2001. What is ironical is that name of not a single Iraqi orAfghan figured in these attacks on the US soil. As per the informationgiven by the US, those who carried out the attack were Saudis andEgyptians. But these two countries were not targeted.
SAUDI’S ANTI-IRAN POSITION
Saudi Arabia was among the Gulf rulers who feared most the IranianRevolution which threw out monarchy. To consolidate its position amongthe masses the Saudi royal family started accusing Iran of exportingShiaism though it is a fact that Khomeini’s anti-US and anti-SovietUnion stand appealed to many Sunnis across the world.
It was from the naval and land bases in Saudi Arabia that the two GulfWars were launched against Iraq. But it was the same Saudi Arabia,along with several other Arab countries, which morally and materiallysupported Saddam in the eight-year long Iran-Iraq War (1980-88).
CIVIL WAR IN IRAQ, YEMEN
The Saudi and some small Sheikhdoms went to the extent of befriendingIsrael and opposed the revolution in Egypt in 2011. They played a keyrole in bringing military dictatorship back in that country.
On the other hand, Iraq plunged into the civil war, for which theAmericans are directly held responsible. Now, the general belief isthat it was none else but the United States which created ISIS to keepthe pot boiling in Iraq as well as neighbouring Syria.
Meanwhile, the Gulf rulers got embroiled in the Yemeni Civil War. Thewestern media dubbed it as a fight between Sunnis and Shias, when thefact is that in the past the Saudis had a very good relationship withthe Zaidi Shia rulers of Yemen.
Zaidis are quite different from Twelver Shias who form over 85 percent of population of the world Shias. They are spread in Iran, Iraq,Azerbaijan, and Lebanon, etc.
OVERBLOWN PROPAGANDA OF SUNNI-SHIA CONFLICT
So, Zaidis had little to do with Iran, but, thanks to the westernpropaganda, an image was created that it was a Sunni-Shia tussle. Thisis largely because Saudi and the United Arab Emirates played a crucialrole in the Yemeni civil war.
What is not mentioned is that Azerbaijan, the northern neighbour ofIran, is not only a Shia-dominated country but the rulers to belong tothat sect. Yet Iran had a very bad relationship with it. Iran had inthe past accused Azerbaijan of providing base to Israel for any futureattack on it.
Curiously, Sunni-dominated Türkiye fully supported Azerbaijan in itswar against Armenia in 2021.
SAUDI DISILLUSIONMENT
It is difficult to state as to why the Saudi rulers suddenly gotdisillusioned of the West. One argument is that the Crown PrinceMohammad bin Salman was upset over the role played by the Democratsduring the infamous Jamal Khashoggi episode. He was reportedly angeredby the stand then taken by Joe Biden, who later became the President.
But another more important reason is that after the failure of theUS in Iraq and later in Afghanistan, the West lost much of itsbargaining power in the entire region. The Russian invasion of Ukrainelast year further changed the equation. Perhaps several Arab leadershad always been under compulsion to side with the West – simply becauseof its might.
The war in Ukraine provided them with some breathing space. Now that Russiaand China have increased their influence, they are taking somewhatindependent decision.
China is the main buyer of Saudi and Iranian oil. Beijing hadexcellent relationship with both. The Belt and Road Initiative hasreached Iran and further expansion is on the card.
IMPACT ON ISRAEL
The recent political turmoil in Israel also provided the Arab Sheikhdom with some more room to act freely. Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu had gone to the extent of accusing the present USadministration of financing and fomenting trouble in the Jewish state.He is yet to visit Washington after becoming PM three months back.This is something very unusual. He was scheduled to visit UAE, butthat too did not materialise. In fact, the UAE recently sent three milliondollar of aid to the Palestinians whose homes were destroyed byIsraelis in the West Bank.
A couple of days after the Beijing Accord, Saudi Arabia blocked thevisit of Israeli foreign minister to the country to attend UN WorldTourism Organisation Conference. It had earlier approved of the visit.
A week after the Accord, King Salman sent an invitation to PresidentEbrahim Raisi to Riyadh. The Iranian leader welcomed it.
On the other hand, Jordanian parliament passed a resolution seekingthe expulsion of Israeli ambassador to Amman.
This swift change of course is likely to have impact on theenvironment created after the signing of Accord. The UAE,Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan had in the last couple of years establisheddiplomatic relationship with Israel.
I2U2 IN A FIX
The reconciliation between Riyadh and Tehran landed the new groupingcalled I2U2 in a fix. It came up late in 2021 and consists of Israel,India, the United States and the United Arab Emirates. The presentsituation in Israel is uncertain, while India took six days tocautiously respond to the March 10 Accord, most likely because Chinabrokered it. India has always been under pressure from the UnitedStates on its relationship with Iran.
The United States, on its part, is watching the developments closelybut it is running out of ideas. Washington, according to reports, isnow trying to provoke Azerbaijan against Iran.
If the Iran-Saudi Arabia Accord succeeds, as is being expected, it islikely to change the scenario in the Middle East. The Arab League hasalready softened its stand against Syria.