Iran today is passing through a moment that will determine its future. It is making decisions while facing American-Israeli attacks and after losing several of its religious and political leaders. In such a situation, it would be wise to think calmly and listen to different voices.
Just as in the Arab world, Iranian attacks have become the main issue dominating public debate in Türkiye. While the Israeli attack on Iran, carried out with the support of the United States, was widely condemned, the situation changed suddenly when Iran launched a barrage of missiles toward countries across the region.
Türkiye, Qatar, and Oman had made significant efforts to prevent the outbreak of war, while Saudi Arabia was pressuring the United States not to carry out the attack. Yet Iran’s decision to fire missiles toward these countries created serious contradictions.
After two missiles fell within Turkish airspace, Turkish public opinion began recalling Iran’s actions in Syria and its intelligence activities inside Türkiye, leading to strong criticism.
Iran may have intended, by launching missiles toward Gulf countries and threatening oil and energy supplies, to pressure the United States in the short term. However, this decision will harm Iran in the long term. Public opinion in Muslim countries – as well as policymakers and opinion leaders – will not easily forget these retaliatory actions.Such targeting may also push many countries in the region to reconsider and rebuild their security strategies.
Although Türkiye’s president and its foreign and defence ministers have stated that the war was provoked by Israel and lacks legal justification, the Iranian missile launches sparked strong anger in Türkiye.
Iran, already isolated, should have tried to gain more support. Instead, it deepened its isolation by targeting neighbours such as Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Iraq.
In closed meetings, Turkish officials, including the president, the foreign and defence ministers, and intelligence chiefs, expressed anger toward Iran. They warned that retaliatory attacks against neighbouring countries, particularly Azerbaijan, could upset the balance of power in the region and called for them to stop.
Iran did not acknowledge launching missiles that targeted Türkiye and Azerbaijan, yet another missile was later fired toward Turkish territory.
Following these incidents, Turkish security institutions consulted with NATO, deployed additional alliance air-defence systems, and strengthened domestic air-defence capabilities.
Although there are calls for a limited response if new Iranian attacks occur, the prevailing view within Turkish state institutions currently favours responding through diplomatic channels. However, if further provocations happen, Türkiye’s reaction will largely depend on Iran’s behaviour in the coming period.
Iran is currently facing some of the most intense attacks in its history. While the world has widely condemned what many see as an illegal assault on Iran, and Tehran is responding with all available means to survive, it must also think about the consequences.
After the war ends, Iran will still have to coexist with neighbours with whom it shares long borders – Türkiye, Iraq, and Azerbaijan.
It will also continue sharing airspace and water resources with Gulf states and will need trade relations with these countries.How can Iran build trust with nations toward which it has launched missiles?
The United States and Israel have already begun promoting the idea that Iran “could strike you at any moment,” encouraging countries in the region to increase military spending and host more foreign bases.
This war will eventually end, the United States will withdraw, and the countries of the region will continue living side by side. Iran, which may believe it has achieved short-term gains, should not endanger its long-term relations with neighbouring states.From now on, it should stop launching retaliatory attacks against the territory of other countries.
[by Kemal Öztürk in Aljazeera]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque