Another episode in the American–Iranian “series” concluded in the Omani capital, Muscat. With initial comments from both sides described as “positive,” speculation has intensified and expectations have diverged.
Some anticipate an imminent American military decision, pushed by Israel. This possibility cannot be ruled out, given the exceptionally close relationship between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as Netanyahu’s clear interest for spreading chaos and accelerating fragmentation across the Near East.
Others, however, do not exclude the possibility of a new “deal” between two capitals long accustomed to reducing political solutions to transactional bargains. It is worth recalling that the Iranian–American nuclear agreement itself emerged from a prior “deal,” reached in Muscat after secret negotiations conducted between 2013 and 2015 during the presidency of Barack Obama.
Much has changed since then. Most notably, Washington withdrew from that agreement following Donald Trump’s return to the White House, adopting a far more radical and confrontational approach toward Tehran.
The regional landscape has also shifted from the Israeli side. Netanyahu embraced the doctrine that “attack is the best form of defence,” while simultaneously defying corruption charges brought against him at home. According to his critics, he managed to silence the Israeli street, and even exploit its growing extremism, through a sequence of expansionist wars in the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and Syria. These wars reached a point of no return in Gaza, before extending into the West Bank and Lebanon, with Syria remaining a possible next arena.
Such wars would not have been possible without unconditional American support. There is also growing influence of racist and fascist right-wing movements in Europe and elsewhere. Arab solidarity has markedly declined amid a Western climate increasingly hostile to Arabs and Muslims, particularly the children of migrants. There is, at present, no coherent Arab strategy capable of confronting the escalating regional crises. Israeli dominance in the Near East has distorted Arab priorities and complicated their ability to respond effectively to the consequences of this hegemony.
The scale of influence exercised by supporters of Israel’s expansionist right within the fields of communication technology, cyber systems, and artificial intelligence has become fully apparent. Wars of data collection, storage, and exploitation are no longer theoretical. Israel appears to be the central player in this arena, whether directly or through American billionaires, their corporations, and their powerful platforms.
Within this context, Washington, backed by Tel Aviv, is once again resorting to intimidation through fear. And within this same context, others stand by as spectators, without leverage or strategy.
The Arab region, particularly the Near East and the Gulf, has suffered deeply over the past three decades. Since two thousand three, the Iranian leadership has operated under a sense of internationally tolerated “surplus power,” encouraging excessive ambition. Yet pragmatic figures within Tehran understand Washington well. They recognise the West’s unsentimental pragmatism and its indifference to emotional appeals or illusory friendships. They also practise a form of political restraint that sets limits which are not crossed, even amid loud slogans and rhetorical escalation.
This reality, evident since the invasion of Iraq, now defines a moment in which Israeli leadership seeks to control the contours of America’s confrontation with Iran. Partitioning Iran may not currently serve Washington’s interests, and even parts of the Arab public, including Iran’s opponents, may fear that the cost of managing Iranian collapse would be too high.
For Netanyahu and his regional project, however, war itself – even if it produces chaos and fragmentation – remains an acceptable and exportable model, intended to impose submission across the Arab world.
[by Eyad Abu Shakra in Asharq Al-Awsat]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque