The US troops deployed in Iraq following its invasion on March 20, 2003, by the armed forces of the “Coalition of the Willing” (NATO was divided on the issue) have finally left for their homeland after over 23 years. Their complete withdrawal occurred on September 30, 2026. These soldiers and officers were ordered to leave Iraq after then American President Barack Obama took a policy decision in 2011 to leave Iraq to the Iraqis, but got recalled after the emergence of the Islamic State extremist movement, which captured large parts of Iraqi and Syrian territory. What came to be popularly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant or Syria (ISIS), initially headed by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (real name Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri), caused havoc in the two countries but became history soon owing to the efforts of international forces led by the US. The region heaved a sigh of relief, but it called for strict vigil and hence the need for US and other NATO forces staying put in the area. It is, therefore, natural for the US families concerned to celebrate the occasion of US troop withdrawal from Iraq. These American families had always been scared of losing their loved ones during these years full of uncertainties. The controversial war, Operation Iraqi Freedom, resulted in the death of at least 4,418 US troops and lakhs of Iraqis.
The US troop withdrawal is a welcome development also for Iran and a large number of private militias functioning in Iraq. Most of these militias have remained aligned with Iran as they are part of the Teheran-backed Axis of Resistance in West Asia. They had, in fact, been waiting for the development as it was learnt that the US was getting weary of keeping its forces in Iraq in a very hostile atmosphere. On May 16, 2026, the US managed to get installed its confidant Ali Al-Zaidi as the Prime Minister of Iraq. His major task has been to control these militias and get them disarmed for properly governing the country, too challenging to achieve success on this front. Since most of these private armies are under the influence of Iran, they are unlikely to agree to surrender their arms and ammunition. These powerful groups of fighters, numbering around 70, have been functioning under the officially set up Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). Yet certain pro-Iran armed groups hardly bother about the PMF system. The US wanted these militias to be fully controlled by the Zaidi government in Baghdad with a view to bringing about peace and stability in Iraq, but in vain. That is why it cannot be said with certainty what course the situation in Iraq may take in the absence of the US troops. The militias, it is believed, will remain a constant source of trouble for the Zaidi government. The Iran-aligned militant groups always look for instructions from Teheran, which may now try to control the levers of power in Iraq owing to the sectarian factor being in its favour. Unfortunately for that country, Iraqi society has remained torn by the powerful sectarian factor with Shias being around 60 per cent of the population. Deposed President Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, constituting around 40 per cent of the population, had turned the Iraqi society into a cohesive one by using force wherever necessary.
Looking at Iraq from this angle, besides the factor of Iran being at war with the US, it is not surprising that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has described the US troop withdrawal as a ‘historic victory’ for the Axis of Resistance, created by the Persian Gulf country to safeguard its interests in the region. In the IRGC’s opinion, the US decision is no favour to the people of Iraq nor has it come about as a result of talks in this regard. Iran has officially called it a ‘crushing’ defeat for US influence in the region, and the first major step towards achieving the objective of freeing the Middle-East from America’s influence.
However, the feeling of relief and joy expressed by various stakeholders in Iraq over the US troop withdrawal carries little meaning as Washington has created a system which will ensure that it has full control over Iraq’s politics, economics, energy exports, strategic affairs, etc. It will not be easy for the Iraq government to take any major decision without keeping in view the US factor so long as this powerful arrangement remains intact. Washington is likely to do all it can to ensure that this system of subjugation remains unaltered.
Under the US-created system, it is mandatory for Iraq to deposit its energy export revenues into the New York-based Federal Reserve Bank under the head called the Development Fund for Iraq. The system was created after the 2003 invasion of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. There is an arrangement for financial oversight too which means that the US Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank will operate a regulatory mechanism to control how Iraq accesses its resources, including the US dollar. There are other methods, too, the US can use to ensure its stranglehold over Iraq.
Going by the painful history of Iraq’s capture by the US and its allies, Washington cannot be expected to fully disconnect itself from this strategically significant country of West Asia. Iraq under Saddam Hussein was attacked by the US-led multinational forces in 2003 on the pretext of taking under their control its illusive weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). The military onslaught came about despite the world’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stating clearly that it had found no evidence of a nuclear or chemical weapon facility in Iraq, and the UN Security Council expressing its opposition to the use of force to deal with Baghdad. Then US President George W. Bush and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair together, however, bypassed the Security Council and IAEA viewpoint and insisted on their claim (which later on proved to be false) that they had definite information that Iraq did have nuclear bombs or was in a position to assemble such a weapon in a matter of days and possessed an active stockpile of biological and chemical weapons. Ultimately they went about their programme of destroying Iraq, leaving nothing to chance. It was strongly believed that the US had its eyes particularly fixed on the Iraqi oil reserves, etc. Can the US, therefore, free Iraq from its stranglehold so easily despite not having its troops there? It is a different matter that the case of Iraq is described as the 21st century’s biggest American policy failure as the US indirectly helped Iran, its archenemy, achieve its objective of eliminating the Saddam Hussein regime which Teheran could not do despite fighting a full-scale war for eight long years, from September 1980 to August 1988.
[The writer, former Dy Editor of The Tribune, is a New Delhi-based political commentator. Email: syed.nooruzzaman@gmail.com]