Normally, municipal election results of any country do not make international news. However, the recently concluded municipal elections in Türkiye made headlines globally as the results were interpreted as a historic loss of the AK Party led by Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The main opposition party of Türkiye – the Republican People’s Party (CHP) won 14 metropolitan cities, 36 of the 81 provinces, and 337 district councils. The CHP received 17.4 million votes, 4 million more than the 13.4 million votes it received in the last election. The opposition played out the local elections as if they carried a national resonance and should be seen as a national referendum against the President.
Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu of the CHP retained Istanbul. CHP’s Mayor Mansur Yavas also won in Türkiye’s capital Ankara. In contrast, the AK Party which had won 18.5 million votes in the previous parliamentary and presidential elections saw their vote share decline to 16.3 million votes in the recent local (municipal) elections.
The New Welfare Party (YRP) led by Muhammad Ali Fatih Erbakan, son of the late Turkish prime minister Necmettin Erbakan grabbed 2.8 million votes. It is reported that the number of invalid votes cast in these elections was exceptionally high, nearly 2.2 million. Some political analysts estimate that nearly 6 million AK Party voters did not cast their vote. Their absence was meant to send a message to the party leadership that they were not happy with the President’s performance.
What are the factors that led to the change in fortunes of the AK Party and the resurgence of the Opposition in Türkiye? Can President Erdoğan rise once again like the proverbial phoenix or will these results mark the beginning of the end for his more than two-decade-old rule of Türkiye.
Managing vote banks
In the recent election, 1.1 million young individuals exercised their right to vote for the first time, alongside 2.2 million newly retired citizens joining the electoral roll. Türkiye saw its elderly population surpass 10% of the total populace for the first time in 2023, marking a historic shift with the country’s average age reaching 35. This demographic trend is indicative of Türkiye’s swift trajectory toward an aging crisis akin to those faced by developed nations. Against this backdrop, pensioners emerged as the pivotal demographic in the electoral landscape.
Troubled by the economic downturn, retired voters anxiously awaited last-minute promises of additional pension increments. Despite a 45% increase in their pensions, following public outcry over an initial 39% raise earlier in the year, the adjustment proved woefully inadequate against an annual inflation rate nearing 70%. With the minimum monthly pension pegged at Turkish Lira (TL) 10,000 (approximately $310), retirees grappled with a significant erosion of purchasing power. Had the government announced further pension hikes just before the election, it could have significantly altered the electoral outcome. Surveys indicate that undecided retirees either abstained from voting or opted for smaller parties in protest. Analysts say that retirees will continue to wield considerable influence in Türkiye’s future elections with their numbers approaching 16.5 million, constituting 27% of the 61 million-strong voter population.
The economy
According to the most recent data released by the Confederation of Turkish Labor Unions, the threshold for hunger for a family of four (i.e. the monthly food expenditure to be able to eat healthy, balanced, and sufficient meals) reached approximately TL 55,000. This is in stark contrast and woefully more than the minimum wage of TL 17,000 and the minimum salary of TL 10,000. Türkiye’s annual inflation rate climbed to 68.5% in March dealing a big blow to AK Party’s election prospects, as the unprecedented inflation was seen as the President’s inability to manage the economy.
As reported by Reuters, Harun Armagan, an AKP central decision board member and vice chair of foreign relations accepted that the economy had a negative impact on the election results, saying, “We knew that this election was going to be harder than others because we are applying a very strict fiscal policy that may taste bitter today but we know that it will help in the future.”
Opposition unity and other factors
Turkish political analysts also say that the opposition has successfully solidified its support base. Voters from smaller parties, including those aligned with the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), an offshoot of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), the Good Party (IP), and the Victory Party (ZP), shifted their allegiance to the CHP.
The Opposition projected the municipal elections as a general election and ran a campaign built on political polarization and a vote of no-confidence in the President. Local allegiances also influenced the outcomes in some constituencies, where the AK Party nominated non-local politicians instead of local (son of the soil) candidates. This elicited public disapproval, resulting in the defeat of such “outsiders”.
Furthermore, the repercussions of the major earthquakes that struck Kahramanmaraş on Feb. 6, 2023, were perceptible in these elections. The notably low voter turnout in the earthquake-affected areas suggests a higher disapproval rating than anticipated. Additionally, in certain constituencies, parties aligned or in alliance with each other competed, allowing the opposition to capitalize on internal divisions within the ruling coalition.
Erdoğan vows to introspect and come back
Addressing his supporters in a speech at the party headquarters, Erdoğan accepted that the results were an electoral setback. The 70-year-old Turkish President said, “Unfortunately, we have not obtained the results that we wanted. We will of course respect the decision of the nation. We will avoid being stubborn, acting against the national will and questioning the power of the nation.”
Writing for the pro-government newspaper Daily Sabah, Bünyamin Esen predicts that Erdoğan “is a political engineer who reads the behavior and warnings of the voters very well and has a strong political intelligence for reading Turkish society. One can be sure that while Erdoğan is preparing a large-scale renewal and infusing “fresh blood” into his team, he will conduct extensive surveys and field studies to understand the demands of the citizens. Moreover, a continuation of strict policies to prevent the inflation crisis is also an almost sure thing.”
With four years to go before his current term ends, President Erdoğan has no other choice but to stabilize the economy and take it to greater heights. Bad economics may prove his undoing no matter how good a politician he might be.