Since returning to office for a third term in 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership has reached a critical juncture. The once-unquestioned authority he wielded is increasingly being questioned across India, with slogans like “Vote Chor, Gaddi Chhor” (Vote Thief, Vacate Chair) reverberating throughout the country. These slogans, fuelled by accusations of vote manipulation and growing political discontent, have left Modi and Shah duo grappling with mounting challenges.
A combination of internal rifts, controversial policies, international failures, and an increasingly powerful Opposition is slowly but surely weakening Modi’s grip on power. One of the most significant blows has come from the Vote Chori (vote theft) scandal, a controversy that has led to widespread mistrust in the electoral process. The Leader of the Opposition, Rahul Gandhi, has launched a sustained campaign highlighting the alleged manipulation, further intensifying the political heat surrounding Modi.
Yashwant Sinha’s Critique
Yashwant Sinha, a former BJP leader and Union Minister, has emerged as a vocal critic of Modi’s leadership. In a recent interview, Sinha argued that Modi’s influence is waning, citing internal conflicts within the government and bureaucracy. He pointed to reported tensions between key figures, such as External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, and rivalries between corporate-backed think tanks like the Observer Research Foundation (Ambani-supported) and Chintan Research Foundation (Adani-backed), as evidence of disarray.
Sinha contends that Modi’s inability to maintain the control he once exerted signals a decline in his authority, with ministers and bureaucrats displaying unprecedented defiance. He also highlighted remarks by the RSS chief, Mohan Bhagwat, suggesting that leaders over 75 years should retire – a pointed reference to Modi, who is approaching that age.
Sinha expresses alarm over the state of Indian democracy, comparing it to authoritarian regimes like North Korea. He cites the mysterious absence of the Vice President for over 30 days as an example of democratic norms “falling apart.”
He criticises the Election Commission for becoming increasingly “brazen” and accuses it of political bias, particularly in its handling of the Bihar elections. Sinha alleges that votes are being systematically deleted (20,000-25,000 per constituency) to favour the BJP-led NDA, undermining the electoral process.
The Vote Chori (vote theft) scandal, controversial policies, and rising opposition voices are making it increasingly difficult for Modi to maintain his previously unchallenged dominance. As a result, Sinha believes that the current political situation signals a major turning point for Modi, with his control over the party organisation and the country slipping away.
Discontent in BJP
The internal dissent within the BJP is more visible than ever.The result of Constitution Club election is a clear case in point. The election saw Modi-Shah’s nominee Sanjay Balyan bite the dust at the hands of Partap Singh Rudi, a party dissenter, due to cross-voting. There is widespread speculation that cross-voting may take place during the vice-president election slated on September 7.
Despite Modi’s firm grip on the party, factions within the BJP, particularly the RSS lobby, have begun to surface, fuelled by dissatisfaction with Amit Shah’s leadership, especially regarding the selection of the party president which is due since 2023. The RSS lobby feels betrayed by Modi and Shah, arguing that, despite their unwavering loyalty and commitment to the party, they have been sidelined while outsiders enjoy the spoils of power. Internally, the BJP is described as being in disarray, with no national executive meetings and a lack of internal democracy.
The RSS, the BJP’s ideological mentor, has expressed concerns about the government’s direction, particularly with regard to economic reforms and the caste-based census. Recently, the RSS chief subtly urged Modi to step back from public life once he reaches the age of 75, suggesting it’s time for leaders to relinquish their roles and make way for new leadership.
These internal fractures have left Modi vulnerable to political pressure from both within and outside his party.
On the national front, Modi’s earlier promises of economic prosperity have become a point of contention. His much-publicised economic reforms like demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST) have faced staunch opposition from critics, including Sinha, who argue that these policies did more harm than good. “The government’s economic missteps, such as demonetisation, have led to a crisis of confidence among the people. The promise of ‘Achhe Din’ (Good Days) remains unfulfilled for millions,” said Sinha.
The Modi government has failed to deliver on its promises of job creation, and the nation continues to grapple with high unemployment and inflation. Sinha added, “The youth of this country, the backbone of our future, is increasingly disillusioned with the Modi government. They see no future in the promises that were made.”
International Failures
The fallout from Operation Sindoor has added to the list of Modi’s woes. What was initially presented as a victory for the Indian Army has turned into a major political debacle. The secrecy surrounding the operation, coupled with accusations of poor decision-making, has raised questions about Modi’s leadership. Akhilesh Yadav, the former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, and Samajwadi Party president criticised the operation’s lack of transparency, stating, “The secrecy surrounding Operation Sindoor undermines the very idea of democratic accountability.”
Meanwhile, the imposition of a 25% tariff penalty by the United States in retaliation for India’s purchase of oil from Russia has deepened economic troubles. Industries such as textiles and footwear in regions like Agra, Gujarat have been hit hard by the tariffs, further straining Modi’s economic narrative. In Gujarat, gem and diamonds and textile industries are reeling under the new US tariffs. “The Modi government has failed to anticipate the global economic shifts and protect the interests of Indian businesses,” said a leading economist. The rise in prices and shrinking job opportunities are fuelling public dissatisfaction, especially among the working class.
Adding to these troubles, former U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that he brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan during the 4-day war in May this year. These claims have left Modi’s foreign policy vulnerable to criticism, with questions about India’s role in handling regional conflicts and global diplomacy. Modi’s failure to challenge these claims has only fuelled perceptions of weakness on the international stage.
“The lack of response from the Indian government regarding Trump’s claims raises doubts about the assertiveness of India’s foreign policy,” noted a foreign relations expert. “Modi’s inability to contradict or clarify such significant statements from Donald Trump reflects a failure in foreign diplomacy.”
The Opposition Rising
In response to Modi’s faltering leadership, a united opposition has begun to take shape. Regional parties and leaders have overcome their differences to form a cohesive front against the BJP, including figures like Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, and Akhilesh Yadav. Under the banner of INDIA, this new alliance threatens to break Modi’s dominance in Indian politics.
“The increasing unity among Opposition leaders is the biggest challenge Modi faces now,” said a senior TMC leader. “If they can maintain a consolidated front, Modi may find it difficult to hold on to power.”
The Opposition has capitalised on the growing discontent within the country, framing themselves as a voice for the people against a government that they argue has become increasingly authoritarian. This new alliance threatens to break Modi’s dominance in Indian politics.
Turning Point
A key moment in this growing opposition wave is the Vote Adhikar Yatra (Vote Rights March) against SIR in Bihar, which has gained significant traction across India. Spearheaded by Rahul Gandhi, the march calls for the protection of voters’ rights and highlights the alleged manipulation of electoral processes by the ruling party. The Yatra has become a focal point for those disillusioned by Modi’s leadership and is seen as a direct response to the vote choriscandal. Gandhi has framed this as a battle for the integrity of Indian democracy, stating, “This is not just about elections; it’s about safeguarding the very soul of our nation, where every vote counts, and every voice is heard.”
The Yatra, which has gained massive support across Bihar, symbolises a growing demand for accountability and transparency in the political system. As Modi’s leadership faces increasing scrutiny, the march has become a powerful symbol of resistance.
The political landscape in India has shifted dramatically in recent years. What once appeared to be an unassailable power base for Narendra Modi is now cracking under pressure from within the party, across the nation, and even from international economic forces. The scandals, the rising opposition, and the growing discontent among voters have created a perfect storm for the Prime Minister.
The road ahead for Modi is uncertain. While his stronghold among a certain section of the electorate remains, the fractures in his party, his handling of the economy, and the challenges posed by a united opposition could determine his political future.
As the Vote Adhikar Yatra continues to draw millions into the streets, Modi must find a way to reclaim his narrative, address the rising tide of discontent, and restore his image as a decisive and transparent leader – or face a potential downfall that many feel has already begun.