As the 2024 general election enters its final phases, three significant trends are emerging. First, this election is not a clear-cut contest; secondly, the INDIA bloc is performing better than expected; and thirdly, Prime Minister Modi’s political standing has been notably weakened, even within his own party. Should he lose, internal party dissent could become apparent.
With votes cast in 379 of the 543 parliamentary constituencies, covering 23 states and Union territories, the electoral landscape is becoming clearer. The remaining 164 constituencies will vote on May 20, May 25, and June 1.
Political analysts increasingly believe that the ruling party faces a difficult battle to retain power. Modi’s increasingly outlandish statements during rallies – such as claiming a Congress government would “Babri lock” the Ram Mandir and contrasting “Ram Rajya” with “vote jihad” – suggest desperation. He also accused the Congress of religious favoritism in cricket team selection and labeled Muslims as “infiltrators” and a demographic threat. Amit Shah echoed this rhetoric, accusing West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee of shifting from promoting regional pride to appeasing Muslims.
Modi’s fear-mongering extends to warning that a Congress victory would favor Muslims over Gujarati dairy farmers. These tactics seem to distract from the Congress’s promises of a caste census, increased reservations, and wealth redistribution.
Veteran journalist P. Raman highlighted the stark contrast in Modi’s campaign compared to previous elections. He noted the absence of discussion on economic issues like price rises and unemployment, replaced by communal vitriol.
Incidents of voter suppression targeting Muslims and marginalized groups have been reported, including police violence in Muslim-majority areas in Uttar Pradesh. Malik Moatasim Khan of Jamaat-e-Islami Hind condemned these actions as undermining democracy. Allegations of bogus voting and voter intimidation further mar the electoral process.
Modi’s divisive rhetoric may backfire, as his communal comments potentially violate the Representation of the People’s Act, risking his disqualification. Lower voter turnout compared to 2019 suggests disillusionment with Modi’s campaign.
Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS observed a fierce contest between BJP and the INDIA bloc, with no clear winner. Yashwant Deshmukh of C-Voter and Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India similarly noted the competitive nature of the election, with regional dynamics playing a crucial role.
The BJP’s reliance on central leadership contrasts with the opposition’s regional strength. The omnipresence of Modi’s image and constant self-promotion may be alienating voters, coupled with economic dissatisfaction, including low household savings, high indebtedness, stagnant wages, and high unemployment.
Political commentators and YouTube analysts suggest that while Modi remains a leader, the enthusiasm for “brand Modi” has waned. Some believe that even international observers, like Elon Musk, anticipated political change in India.
Former BJP MP Swapan Dasgupta’s tweet about foreign media inquiries into BJP’s post-Modi plans underscores the uncertainty. Modi’s claims of an international conspiracy to replace him seem increasingly desperate.
In Karnataka, a clear gender and class divide is evident, with wealthier voters favoring the BJP, while women and lower socioeconomic groups lean towards Congress.
Overall, the lack of a pro-BJP wave and disillusionment among former supporters have bolstered the opposition alliance. Despite setbacks, the INDIA bloc’s united front poses a significant challenge to the BJP, amid rumors of internal dissent and strategic missteps.
As the election progresses, the outcome remains uncertain, but the possibility of Modi’s political decline looms larger than ever.