Islamic Finance to Reduce Fiscal Deficit in India

At a time when economic recovery needs more stimuli by the Government of India (GoI), there is also an urgent need to safeguard the economy from the debt trap because the GDP growth rate fell to 6.7% in 2008-09 against 9% in 2007-08; the debt servicing reached 58.83% of the total expenditure for the year 2008-09. It means maximum receipts are now spent for debt servicing which accounted to 15.87% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while the debt receipts were 9.78% of the GDP in 2008-09. Even the interest payments were 21.39% of the total expenditures by GoI and 5.77% of the GDP in 2008-09. Notably the revenue deficit in 2008-09 is already 30% due to high debt serving ratio to total revenue expenditure.

In an attempt to find the actual reasons behind high fiscal deficit, it is observed that the increased debt receipts by GoI to finance revenue expenditures (especially high debt servicing); increased subsidies on food, fuel and fertilizer; and rural development through schemes like NREGS, farmer’s loan waiving scheme and Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan are the three most important factors of high fiscal deficit. Since there is need of more stimuli to counter recession in the economy, it is expected that the plan expenditures may further increase whereas due to recession, the revenue receipts may decline. This decrease in revenue receipts and increase in plan expenditure may increase the fiscal deficit to an unwanted level high. Working upon different options to reduce the fiscal deficit, it is found that Islamic finance can reduce the fiscal deficit even though revenue receipts decline and plan expenditures increase.

Islamic financial products has a great role to play in reducing the fiscal deficit in emerging economies by replacing the debt based investments for infrastructure with funds mobilised through equity based Government Securities for infrastructure projects. Let’s see how Islamic finance may help us reduce our present fiscal deficit.

Revised Estimates as presented in Interim Budget for 2009-10

* Excludes expenditure matched by receipts (Details in Annex-2 to Expenditure Budget, Volume-1, 2009-2010)

** Excludes discharge of 91 days, 182 days & 14 days intermediate Treasury bills, discharge of Ways & Means  Advances including overdraft, income and expenditure of National Small Savings Fund (NSSF), investments of NSSF, Reserve Funds and Deposits not bearing interest and suspense transactions. Discharge under MSS met from the sequestered cash balances is not included.

Data source: http://indiabudget.nic.in/

Notably the total revenue expenditure is 142.92% of total revenue receipts reflecting 30.03% revenue deficits. Major cause of this high revenue deficit is high debt service ratio to total revenue expenditures. For a developing economy like India, in the proposed plan we project increasing capital expenditures, but in revised estimates of 2008-09 budget, the revenue expenditure is 89% and capital expenditure is just 11% of total expenditure; all due to high debt servicing ratio (66%) to total revenue expenditure. Notably the interest payment alone is 24% of total revenue expenditures. So, with capital expenditure being as low as just 11% of total expenditure and debt serving being as high as 59% of total expenditure, how can we go planning for foster inclusive growth?

Debt Finances crossed the Planned Estimates:

The debt based finances for investments under 11^th five year plan document was proposed to be 48.42% of total receipts for 2008-09, whereas the revised budget estimates reveals that the debt receipts were 96.38% of total capital receipts in 2008-09. This reflects our inability to mobilise targeted amount of non debt receipts, causing high fiscal deficit due to interest payments over borrowed debt receipts.

Source-wise Projected Investment for 11^th Plan

(Rs crore at 2006–07 prices)

Data Source: http://planningcommission.nic.in/

According to 11^th plan documents, projected investments in 2008-09 should be of Rs. 321,579 crore while total plan capital expenditure in revised budget observed as just Rs. 41,301 crore. So the plan capital expenditure is just 12.84% of targeted investment in 2008-09. This shows our inefficiency to make budget development pro to ensure foster and inclusive growth. So, it is better that GoI reduce debt borrowings which ultimately increases revenue deficits; and shift the focus on infrastructure investments to stimulate the economy at a time when GDP growth rates and employment growth rates are falling.

Actual Debt Receipts is 210% to the planned Estimates:

Since the revised estimates on debt receipts (Rs. 326,515 Crore) is already 210% of estimated requirements of debts (Rs. 1,55,704 Crore) by year 2008-09 as projected in 11^th five year plan documents, the GoI should seriously think about this increased debt receipts. The funds utilised for debt servicing (Rs. 530,010 Crore) is already 162% of debt receipts to finance fiscal deficit (Rs. 3.26.515 Crore), the GoI should revisit its budgeting. How good is it to increase the debt receipts at a time when Indian industries are looking for more affordable credits from banks to meet the challenges after the global meltdown?

Likely Sources of Debt as projected by the Planning Commission

(Rs crore at 2006–07 prices)

Data Source: http://planningcommission.nic.in/

In year 2008-09 the deficit budget cost an amount of Rs. 192,694 crore to GoI which was paid as interest over the debt receipts borrowed to finance the deficit budget. This may be called as loss to GoI because had there been equity based receipts against debt receipts, GoI would have saved this amount.

Financing Fiscal Deficit through subsidised bank loans is not good

In the 11^th five-year plan document it was projected that by year 2008-09, to meet the proposed investment needs around 50% debt receipts worth Rs. 63,207 crore would be mobilised as domestic banks credit. However the figures of revised budget estimates for 2008-09 states that market loans (amounting to Rs. 261,972 crore) are over 80% of total debt receipt by the GoI. The increased flow of subsidised bank loans to GoI for financing fiscal deficit is in fact creating problems for economic growth of the economy because it is creating hurdles for banks to increase the supply of cheaper credit to the private sector at a time when they need it to minimise their output cost and combat recession.  It is observed that besides fall in international demands, the availability of equity finance or cheaper credit sources have affected the business confidence. The equity financial sources are drying up after reversal of capital flows from stock markets due to global meltdown. External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) and Export Credits have also declined.  This all had affected the growth rate for industries.

Industry wise GDP growth trend during recent years

Source: CSO press release dated 29^th May 2009.

Besides evaluating fall in annual growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 9.0% in 2007-08 to 6.7% in 2008-09, it would also be important to analyse the growth trend for different industries during the last year. The Manufacturing Industry employing majority of non-agricultural workers observed deepest fall where annual growth rate fell to 2.4% in 2008-09 compared to 8.2% in 2007-08. Similarly the annual growth rate of agriculture, forestry and fishing fell to 1.6% in 2008-09 against 4.9% a year ago.

However the increase in annual growth rate for Community, Social and Personal services has remarkably increased to 13.1% in 2008-09 as compared to 6.8% in 2007-08 reflecting the impact of increased expenditures by the Government by financing schemes like NREGS.  But it would be important to notice that such expenses have not only increased the fiscal deficit beyond estimated budget for 2009-10, only 9% Indian workforce engaged in Community, Social, and Personal services expected to be benefited through it.

Thus the excess flow of subsidised bank credits to GoI for financing deficit budget is ultimately restraining the economic growth.

Fearing for even higher fiscal deficit?

To reduce the fiscal deficit, it is simple to either cut the expenses or increase the revenues. But under present conditions, it is not possible either to increase the revenue receipts or to cut the expenditures because any increase in taxation will be disastrous at a time when recession has hit the business community and are already demanding for more stimuli to recover. When there is mounting pressure to increase the stimuli, the expenditure is supposed to increase further. Moreover the political promises (to provide subsidised foods and increase flagship programme expenses) by the new Parliamentarians before the election would also increase the plan expenditures. It all increases the possibility of any further increase in the current fiscal deficit.

What the Government should do now?

Considering the constraints to increase the revenue receipts and cut the plan expenditures to control fiscal deficit, the GoI needs to innovate new products for public finance. As almost 60% of total expenditures are made for debt servicing, GoI needs to substitute the debt receipts with equity funds. Since SEBI failed to protect the stock markets and NBFCs dealing in MFs and VCs are not in a position to mobilise huge long term investment funds, GoI needs to innovate Sovereign equities to mobilise adequate amount of non debt receipts for consolidation of public finance.

Considering the available options of capital sources in international market, there are chances to get Islamic funds instead of mere equity funds from the Muslim countries. The equity funds are somehow different from Islamic Funds in the manner that when equity funds are mixed with debt funds, it doesn’t remain Islamic Funds. (to be continued)