The most terrifying nightmares about a full-scale regional war between Iran and Israel have come true. Israel began the war, as is customary in the Middle East, with a strategic surprise that targeted Iranian military leaders, nuclear scientists, and several prominent cities, along with their nuclear sites. A tremendous amount of warnings and threats have been issued by the Iranian leadership, starting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and all those who have followed him in the leadership ladder, and continue to do so.
The major dilemma in such a situation is why Iran was surprised, given that it knew the situation with Israel was so tense that the possibility of a full-scale attack was not unlikely. Moreover, (US) President (Donald) Trump repeatedly warned that Israel was about to attack, and that “an Israeli attack is possible.” Despite all of this, it is clear that Iran did not take sufficient precautions to protect its leaders and sites. Most importantly, it did not decide to launch the first strike.
Now, it can be declared that the Middle East will not remain as it is. The war is taking place between major powers armed with weapons, technology, and a firm religious determination that victory is guaranteed by divine power. Israel is thus declaring that its project in the Middle East and its shaping will continue. Iran, which has curtailed its project, will not miss the opportunity to return to its roots once again. Lebanese Hezbollah still exists, the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces have not lost their power, and the Houthis possess numerous missiles.
[by Dr. Abdel Moneim Saeed in Al-Ahram]
The main forces in the military and political conflict in the “new” Middle East are not Arab: Iran, Israel, and Türkiye. In the background, clearly, is American power. The title of the final chapter of the war is no longer Palestine, or Jerusalem, or even Gaza. Rather, it has other doors and joints, more dangerous than ever since the Islamic Republic entered the conflict and confrontation.
Netanyahu talks about the shape of the new Middle East as if it were an extension of his own farm, and Iran talks about Palestine as if the Arabs were foreign intruders. Türkiye is taking its geographic momentum seriously so as not to spoil what has happened so far. Added to the decade of volcanoes today is the spectre of terror that has lurked for decades: the nuclear factor! This alone increases the intensity, or coolness, of the confrontation, enough not only to spread fear in the gold and oil markets, but also in flour markets.
Israel has elevated the nature of its conflict with Iran to the highest levels of “final trigger,” and a war of missiles, drones, and anti-aircraft missiles has reached the heart of major cities in both countries. The Israelis deliberately targeted major symbols like Qom and the heart of Tehran, not to mention historic cities like Isfahan and Tabriz.
The atmosphere in Tel Aviv and Haifa on Saturday night resembled a fireworks display, but on the ground, it was an “existential” war, according to the Supreme Leader’s words, or in Israeli terms, and also based on the extent to which it has reached on the ground.
[by Sameer Atallah in Asharq Al-Awsat]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque