Soroor Ahmed looks at the political scenario developing in the post-Bharat Jodo Yatra days, and finds that more than the strong presence of the BJP, it is the regional outfits which are coming in the way of the effort of the Congress to revive itself.
More than the strong presence of the Bharatiya Janata Party, it is the regional outfits which arecoming in the way of the effort of the Congress to revive itself in the post-Bharat Jodo Yatra days.The result of the Assembly elections in Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland confirms this fact. This is whyin the resolution passed in the just concluded 85th Plenary Session held in Raipur (February 24-26), theparty made no mention of leading the opposition parties, rather than stressed on the need for all thelike-minded parties to come together.
A close study of the performance in the Assembly elections in the last nine years would reveal that theCongress had, even in the worst-case scenario, managed to defeat the BJP in more states than therelatively smaller well-entrenched parties in different regions of India.
CHALLENGE BEFORE CONGRESS
There is no doubt that Rahul Gandhi had emerged as a forceful alternative to Prime Minister NarendraModi, but his Congress Party is facing a totally different challenge. In this era of over-rating theachievement of the BJP, what many political pundits tend to overlook is that while the Congress hadsucceeded in thoroughly trouncing the saffron party in the heartland states of Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan,and Madhya Pradesh in December 2018 and Himachal Pradesh late in 2022, the Grand Old Party has in itselfnot snatched power from any regional outfits in the same period – Punjab may be possible exception in2017. In May 2018, the Congress helped the Janata Dal (Secular) to form a government in Karnataka. It isanother thing that the BJP later indulged in a unique type of horse-trading to bring the government down.
Even in Kerala, where otherwise the 137-year-old party, did very well in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll,the Left Democratic Front broke the tradition and returned to power once again in April-May 2021Assembly election. There is absolutely no question of the Congress emerging as a winning party in nearfuture in Odisha and West Bengal, from where it has been dislodged long back and Delhi which slippedout of its hand in 2013. Similar is the scenario in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, especially after thebifurcation of the state in 2014.
In smaller states like Goa, Puducherry as well as Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya which are goingthrough the election process, it is the regional parties which queered the pitch for the Congress. TheBJP had done well in these states just by default.
In the bigger states like Bihar, Tamil Nadu Jharkhand and Maharashtra, if the Congress had found itselfeither in power or is well-placed, it is largely because of its alliance with the regional parties. Inthe biggest state of Uttar Pradesh (in terms of the seats) no such formula worked. In neighbouringUttarakhand though the Congress lost the election last year, its war-machine is still somewhat intact.This is largely because there is no regional player there. In Haryana, it is the Indian National LokDal which is causing problem for it. And in Punjab, it is once again Aam Aadmi Party, and not the BJP,which crushed the Congress last year. Actually, the Congress had in 2017 defeated the ruling ShiromaniAkali Dal-BJP alliance to return to power.
BJP STILL NOT ON STRONG FOOTING
In the State Assembly elections to be held later this year in Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradeshand Rajasthan, the BJP can still be voted out of power by the Congress. But the latter is no way in therace in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, where too election is not far off.
Rather than over-awed by the larger-than-life profile of Narendra Modi sketched by a strong section ofthe media, the Congress will have to do something extra-ordinary to tackle the regional satraps.
Curiously, most of them like Mamata Banerjee of West Bengal, Sharad Pawar of Maharashtra, Jagan MohanReddy of Andhra Pradesh had played a long innings in the Congress. The respective parties led by themhave Congress as a part of the name. Barring Pawar, the other two are in no mood to yield any ground toCongress. This is notwithstanding the fact that Rahul Gandhi had campaigned only on one day in the 2021Assembly poll in West Bengal. It was a tactical move not to split non-BJP votes.
DECLINE OF CONGRESS
The ouster of the Congress from power after the November 1989 parliamentary election and subsequentMandalisation of politics paved the way for the rapid growth of regional leaders. The BJP then fullycapitalised the situation for its own political end and on the national level emerged as analternative. In the undivided north Indian state of Bihar and UP, which used to send 139 members to theLok Sabha, the Congress was virtually decimated and the forces of Mandal and Mandir spread theirtentacles in no time. Now the tussle is between them.
Broadly speaking, there are at least two types of regional leaders. Those who concede that the Congressis still a national alternative to the BJP and should be supported. The other satraps are in nomood to accept this fact and are too big for their boots. For example, the Telangana (now Bharatiya)Rashtriya Samiti, which may not win a single seat in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh or Maharashtra, (notto speak of elsewhere in the country) is now nursing a national ambition.
In the same way, had the Trinamool Congress expanded its base in the North-East, it would have beensomewhat understandable as the region had some social similarities with West Bengal, but it went allthe way to Goa and in the process jeopardised the poll prospect of the Congress. As if that was notenough, AAP too jumped into the fray.
RJD FIRST TO JOIN HANDS WITH CONGRESS
It is only Rashtriya Janata Dal leader, Lalu Prasad Yadav, who acknowledged the importance of theCongress at the national level way back in 1999. Later, in 2004 Lok Sabha poll, Samajwadi Party supremoMulayam Singh Yadav helped the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance come to power.
While Mulayam’s son Akhilesh may enter to some sort of understanding with the Congress in future,leaders like Mamata, Jagan Mohan Reddy,K Chandrashekar Rao, Arvind Kejriwal and even Naveen Patnaik arein no mood to give any concession to Congress even now, when they too are threatened by the expansionof the BJP. Needless to mention the Bahujan Samaj Party, which had in the recent years, virtuallylost its relevance even in UP and Punjab, which have 21.3 per cent and 32.9 per cent Dalit votes.
Interestingly, while the Left is number one rival of Congress in Kerala, where the BJP is aninsignificant player, in rest of the states, especially West Bengal and Tripura, the two parties hadno problem in contesting election together. In 2004 parliamentary poll too, the Left appeared somewhataccommodative.
The much-weakened Nitish Kumar of Bihar too, once again, recognised the importance of the Congress.When his Janata Dal (United) joined forces with the RJD and Congress in 2015 Assembly poll, the GrandAlliance bagged 178 out of 243 seats.
Thus, it is still relatively easy to overcome the challenge posed by the BJP, and somewhat difficult totake on these secular forces. The issue is not that these regional satraps are stalling the revival ofthe Congress in their respective states for their own political end, but they had by default helpedthe BJP to consolidate itself in states like West Bengal, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Punjab,Delhi, etc. They totally account for more than 120 Lok Sabha seats.