Some opportunism, some altruism on the part of the Congress saves the day for secular outfits, but journey ahead has enough potholes, opines MAQBOOL AHMED SIRAJ
The elections in Karnataka were predicted to be a trendsetter. But the result did not prove so much of a trend-turner as did its aftermath i.e., the installation of a coalition Government with the larger partner sacrificing the chief ministerial chair to the smaller partner.
The Congress-JDS Government that swore in on May 23 with Mr. H. D. Kumaraswamy heading it, may be seen as a new phase in national politics. The significance of it lies in Congress coming down from the high pedestal and signalling its willingness to be part of a new front to take upon the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Lok Sabha elections slated for April-May 2019.
CONGRESS’ ALTRUISM
Prior to elections, Karnataka was one of the two large states (another being Punjab) that had a Congress Government. But despite good performance by the Government led by Mr. Siddaramaiah—who was the first CM during the last 40 years to complete a five-year tenure in the State—the Party failed to gain a majority in the State. The fact that despite having the largest percentage of votes (38%), the BJP emerged the largest party (104 seats, 36% popular votes) goes to prove that the mandate cannot be easily interpreted as favouring the latter. But some quick work which was also backed by some altruistic spirit, albeit by force of circumstances, tilted the advantage in favour of a non-BJP alliance Government. It was realpolitik at its best. Devegowda-Kumaraswamy could never have a more opportune time to savour power in the State.
Stressful Times Ahead
Mr. Yeddyurappa, now pushing 75, must be a disappointed man. He and his party have missed the throne in this important southern state by a whisker. Having failed to garner the majority in his two and half-day tenure, the BJP may have to sit in the opposition for considerable part of time in the State. Having won it the hard way, the Congress-JDS alliance may have stressful times, but unlikely to fall apart as 2019 elections will force them to sustain the unity and the alliance rather than weakening it, at least in near future.
Bitter Allies
Clearly, the mandate was not for a single party rule as none among the contestants had the requisite majority. The BJP with 108 members in the 2008 Assembly had to move mountains to turn it into a majority with the help of the infamous mining barons, Reddy brothers. Memories of Operation Lotus are still fresh. Similarly, all three parties had had a bitter experience of having been each other’s allies in governments earlier. Even a BJP-JDS Government would have been dubbed an opportunistic alliance as Kumaraswamy-Yeddyurappa had fallen foul of each other in an earlier tenure.
Sustaining an Alliance
That being the past, the Congress and the Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) would have to constantly watch their step and invent ways to avoid even the hint of walking on each other’s toes. The BJP would try all the tricks in its bag to make the two partners doing precisely this, be it on the floor of the Assembly, cabinet and administrative decisions, on the streets, in local bodies and in byelections. Unless there is a ready apparatus to resolve differences, the alliance would be vulnerable to outside machinations. Perhaps the two parties know it too well. The formation and dissolution of a coalition are easier than sustaining it in the present critical times when BJP is breathing down the neck of every regional party.
Two Byelections
The two parties would need enough elasticity to accommodate the pressure from the party cadre, leaders who would be left without positions and portfolios and poachers from the ranks of the BJP. Two byelections later this month (in Jayanagar and Rajarajeshwari Nagar constituencies falling within Bengaluru metropolitan area) are already staring into the eyes. The bonhomie is likely to survive this test as the Congress’ sacrifice of the chief ministerial chair for the smaller partner provides it enough glue. But they would need to take a long term view of their respective interests.
The friendship will also be tested on June 11 when elections for 11 seats of the Legislative Council will be held. Mutual accommodation will fetch better dividends in terms of seats in the 75-member upper house of the Karnataka Legislature.
Caste Base
The JDS is basically a party revolving around father-son duo and draws its essence from the Vokkaliga caste base. Devegowda is seen as the tallest leader of the community, what with him having been the prime minister of the country, although for just a year (1996-97). Kumaraswamy follows the father’s footsteps. The districts in Cauvery basin and a few areas in Malnad (Western Ghats) are its main hinterland where the major component of the community resides. With Cauvery waters witnessing a constant tussle, it may be easily tempted to take a hard stance on the issue which may spell trouble elsewhere for the Congress, a pan-Indian party.
Bitter rivalries
The bitter rivalries of the electoral battle too would haunt the parties and their leaders. It is useful to remember that Mr. Siddaramaiah was defeated in his home constituency of Chamundeshwari (comprising parts of Mysuru city and adjoining area) by Mr. G. T. Devegowda, another formidable JDS leader who had even represented the BJP in the Lok Sabha after winning from the same area in the past. Even H. Vishwanath, a leading Janata Dal leader with impeccable secular credentials, who was forced to quit the Congress by Siddaramaiah, is now a JDA MLA in the new house. Vishwanath, a member of the Kuruba community, earned the former CM’s wrath merely because Siddaramaiah would not approve of another Kuruba growing taller in the party when he ruled the roost. Arrogance of this sort within Congress ranks had been responsible for the plight the Congress Party finds itself in now. Besides, at least three of the new Congress MLAs are the ones who had defected from the JDS to the Congress just a month before the elections. It remains to be seen if Kumaraswamy would take any of them into his cabinet.
Jockeying
Though the two partners do not have much of ideological contradictions, the geography and social composition of their votebase may pose issues in the way of smooth functioning. What suits the Congress on the national level may not necessarily be acceptable for the JDS. While poaching attempts on two parties by BJP would remain a constant threat, there may be jockeying to widen their votebase within the two allies. Indications are that the JDS is all likely to spread its wing in even northern districts of the State in hot pursuit of its dream of being a viable regional alternative to both, the Congress and the BJP. In the recent past, the Congress has been wary of the JDS cosying up to communities traditionally thought to be the cornerstone of Congress votebank. It was only two months ago that the Congress refused to lend support to Janata Dal Secular nominee Mr. B. M. Farooq in his bid to get elected to the Rajya Sabha. Farooq happens to be an industrialist from Mangalore and has twice been JDS nominee during the Rajya Sabha elections without success.
Municipal Alliance
Yet not all love is lost between the Congress and the JDS. The Congress has been ruling the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagar Palike (BBMP) with the support of the JDS for the last three years. The BJP had emerged as the largest party in the 2015 for the 198-ward municipal body. Yet the Congress has ensured its dominance with support from the JDS corporators all through the tenure so far and has been able to install three of its members as mayors in consecutive years. One is not sure if the JDS was arm-twisted into the arrangement or it stemmed from genuine bonding, but the fact of the matter is that the JDS has been constantly supporting the Congress in the management of the city.
Risks Ahead
All the above may be low-hanging fruits for the two parties to pluck. But the ultimate test of their alliance lies in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Twenty-eight seats of the Lok Sabha will be up for grabs in the State. If their joint votebank is any indication, the alliance (with BSP being on the side of the JDS) could ensure a majority of seats. Much of it will depend on sustaining the coalition in the saddle of governance and the alliance on the ground in robust health. Personality clashes, rifts, skirmishes in public may erode the popular appeal and lend an advantage to the BJP.
The 2018 mandate in Karnataka must trigger introspection within the Congress party ranks. Despite several populist schemes which benefitted a sizeable populace, the party could not match the door-to-door brainwashing campaign by the BJP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself addressed 21 rallies in the State. On most days of the campaign, all daily newspapers carried one or two advertisements asking votes for the BJP. On the last two days before the closure of the campaign, these covered the entire first page. Except Mr. Rahul Gandhi and her mother, the Congress heavyweights were conspicuous by their absence. However, the Congress could make some dent due to its energetic social media campaign which nailed several lies by Modi-Shah duo and its brigade. What is evident is that mere populist schemes will not fetch votes. The electoral arena has gone intensely competitive and warrants younger leaders and high octane canvassing. Women, youth and students need to be reached.
Congress must also reconcile itself to the fact that it can bounce back into the power race only through an overhaul of the organisation and meaningful alliance with regional forces. Days of hegemony are passé. It must work upon ideas that conceive a federal polity with regional aspirations and sub-regional identities being taken care of. Congress laxity in highlighting the Modi Govt’s abject failure on economic front had been its major deficiency.