Soroor Ahmed comments on the decision of all-party meeting of Opposition parties in Patna on June 23 to declare Rahul Gandhi as prime ministerial candidate of the joint front, and concludes that the coming together of so many parties under one umbrella is in itself a big achievement,and that the BJP cannot afford to be complacent.
The June 23 all-party meeting in Patna came to an end with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi virtually declared asthe prime ministerial face of the anti-Bharatiya Janata Party front. Barring Delhi chief minister andAam Aadmi Party convenor Arvind Kejriwal, the leaders of the rest 15 parties agreed to work togetherand unitedly fight the 2024 Lok Sabha poll against the present ruling establishment.
Actually, the name of Rahul was put forward by the Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad Yadav in hisinimitable style. Known for his witty one-liners, Lalu, while speaking last at the joint Pressconference, asked the former Congress president to get married as it is the long wish of his mummy. Headded that all of those present here are eager to attend this wedding. He also added that he is fit andis ready to fit Narendra Modi and that “Hanuman is now with our side.”
Lalu was in fact countering former Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad and a couple of other BJP leaderswho just before the start of the all-party meeting equated it with a barat without any bridegroom, thatis there is no leader to counter PM Modi. The RJD supremo waited for his opportunity to come. And whenit came, he rendered the BJP bigwigs speechless.
The irony is that many in the media failed to appreciate the subtle way in which Lalu turned the tableon Ravi Shankar Prasad and others. The media briefing ended with a peel of laughter.
It was Bihar chief minister, Nitish Kumar, the perfect host, who initially briefed mediapersons aboutwhat had happened in the four hours and a half long meeting. Others present on the occasion agreed withhim.
LITTLE HURDLE
With the leadership issue almost sorted out, there is hardly any obstacle on the path to oppositionunity. If any understanding on common candidate in every constituency against BJP is agreed at least inBihar, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP would be in trouble. Winning 100out of 147 seats in these states would not be an uphill task for the opposition alliance. Mark it, in2004 parliamentary election, the Congress went in alliance only in Bihar, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu. TheDMK-Congress combine bagged 35 out of 39 seats, the Congress-led alliance in Jharkhand won 13 out of 14seats and in Bihar the RJD-LJP-Congress walked away with 29 out of 40 seats. Thus, out of total 93seats the United Progressive Alliance won 77, and thus upset the apple cart of Atal Bihari Vajpayee-ledBJP.
In Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Himachal Pradesh, where the Congress is inpower at present, the Grand Old Party can now pose a stiff challenge to the BJP. There are 97 seats inthese states. And if there is no split in the non-BJP votes, the Congress can, if the present moodprevails, may bag half of them.
Though West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress president Mamata Banerjee had assured fullsupport to the opposition unity, even if no such understanding could be arrived in her state, there islittle for the BJP to cheer about. Whether she fights alone or in understanding with the opposition,she is not going to join hands with the BJP after the poll. Even in the worst-case scenario, the TMC isnot going to win less than 25 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats.
In Kerala, where the Congress won 19 out of 20 seats in 2019, there is absolutely no scope for the BJP.This is simply because the Left Democratic Front is not going to support the BJP.
If the DMK-Congress combine could win 38 out of 39 seats in the post-Balakot election in 2019, there isno reason for poor performance this time. The AIADMK is not a united house after thedeath of J. Jayalalithaa, its supremo. The BJP is not going to join hands with it.
AAP MAY THROW SPANNER
It is difficult to predict the way Aam Aadmi Party responds in the upcoming meeting to be held inShimla in July. This is simply because it is repeatedly asking the Congress to make its stand clearover the May 19 ordinance. Yet even if it announces to go alone in Delhi and Punjab and even for thatmatter in Haryana, it is not going to harm the opposition much. The three states have in total 30 seats.In Punjab, the BJP has grown further weak with the rise of AAP, which walked away with substantial Hindu votes. The community forms about 40 per cent of the state’s population.
Besides, it has no alliance with Shiromani Akali Dall now. The Congress can still do better in the LokSabha poll though it had lost the Assembly election in 2022. Needless to remind it won eight out of 13seats in the election held in 2019 just after the Pulwama terror attack and subsequent Balakot bombing.At present the AAP has only one out of the 30 seats in these three states. Its success is confined toAssembly elections in Delhi and Punjab.
It is to make up these losses that the BJP is trying to extend the hand of friendship towards theTelugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. But in the process the saffron party hasantagonised the ruling YSR Congress and Bharatiya Rashtriya Samiti. These two parties may not joinhands with the Congress in the state Assemblies yet after Lok Sabha poll they may end up supporting theUPA at the time of formation of the government. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana send 25 and 17 MPs respectively. TheBJP has no MLA or MP from Andhra Pradesh.
CHALLENGING TASK
It is in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 constituencies, that the Congress andSamajwadi Party will have to go in alliance. The Bahujan Samaj Party, which did not take part in Patnameet, will not go with the SP this time.
Anyway, notwithstanding the Congress-SP alliance, the BJP is not going to do badly here. Similarly, itis on strong wicket in Gujarat and Assam, which has 26 and 14 seats respectively. Thus, in these 120seats it would be a big challenge for the Congress-led front to perform. Even if it wins 20 of them, itwould be a big success.
The coming together of so many parties under one umbrella is in itself a big achievement. The BJP cannot afford to be complacent.