The Syrian-Lebanese border stretches over a long distance, passing through mountainous terrain and interwoven villages, making it historically conducive to smuggling and the uncontrolled movement of people, goods, and weapons. This has long posed a persistent security challenge for Syria, particularly during periods of political and military instability. Owing to the nature of Lebanon’s political system, the country has lacked a strong central government capable of extending state authority across its entire territory.
Regardless of the reasons that brought Lebanon to this state, it has historically been known as an open arena for regional and international conflicts. Given the geographical proximity, a range of political and security circumstances has, at various stages, turned Lebanon into a source of challenges that negatively affected Syria’s national security.
Any Syrian government must therefore seek tools and means that provide it with influence inside the Lebanese state, enabling it to protect its national security.
In this sense, no Syrian government, regardless of its political orientation, can distance itself from Lebanon or from what happens on Lebanese soil. Even if the activities of Syrian opposition groups are set aside, the presence of influential regional or international powers inside Lebanon is viewed, from the perspective of Syrian national security, as a source of pressure affecting Syria’s security, political, and even economic balance.
For this reason, any Syrian government must regard Lebanon’s stability as an integral part of Syria’s own strategic stability and view any external penetration of the Lebanese arena as a dangerous development whose effects could easily spill over into Syrian territory.
Accordingly, every Syrian government must seek instruments and mechanisms that grant it influence within Lebanon to safeguard its national security. But does influence come only through the use of military force or the threat of it?
Modern studies of international relations suggest that economic and technological influence, supported by soft power, is the most effective and sustainable form of influence. By contrast, influence based primarily on military force is considered costly, likely to provoke resistance and hostility, and often temporary. Military power compels others to obey, whereas economic, cultural, and logistical influence encourages them to see cooperation as serving their own interests.
For example, Syrian territory constitutes Lebanon’s only overland gateway to the rest of the region, and this alone represents a significant source of influence.
At the strategic level, the concepts of Syrian national security become even more complex. The risks posed to Syria from Lebanon, a country lacking a strong central government capable of honouring commitments to others, may appear relatively limited when compared with the threats emanating from the Zionist entity, which occupies part of Syrian territory and continues to engage in various forms of political and military aggression against the Syrian state.
Within this context, and from a pragmatic perspective that places the enduring conflict with the Zionist entity at the forefront, the new Syrian government may conclude that it is in its interest for Lebanon to remain largely as it is, albeit with certain modifications. In other words, Hezbollah would continue to retain its weapons and remain a source of threat and concern for the Zionist entity.
This was the conclusion reached by most research centres in the Zionist entity, which argued that any government succeeding the Assad regime would ultimately find itself compelled to align with Hezbollah because it provides regional influence and a means of pressure that enhances Syria’s sources of power, whether for war. The relationship between Damascus and Beirut is not merely one of neighbouring states. Rather, it is a geographical, security, and strategic interdependence that makes it difficult for any Syrian authority to ignore developments in Lebanon.
[by Mustafa Ibrahim Al-Mustafa in Syria TV]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque