Political parties in Maharashtra are gearing up for a crucial political battle for the upcoming assembly elections. The Lok Sabha polls 2024 verdict is said to be a morale boosting experience for Maha Vikas Aghadi(MVA) comprising the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party(SP). Political experts believe INDIA Alliance has an edge in the assembly elections.
Will the issues, voting behavior and political sentiment that dominated the campaign trail during the Lok Sabha polls remain the same ahead of assembly elections or will the elections be fought on local issues? Will elections this time too is likely to be fought on divisive issues or will hate speeches overshadow the positivity of the campaign? Will national issues dominate campaign or will elections be fought on state issues?
Majeed Memon, former Rajya Sabha MP and noted criminal lawyer of India who joined Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in 2022, said, “Certainly Lok Sabha poll has given a jerk to anti-Muslim forces. The saffron forces are on the back foot and they believe that if Muslims unite and vote on one side undivided, probably they would lose power. In Maharashtra, the combination of MAHAYUTIalliance of BJP, AjitPawar and Shinde are trying to create some kind of divisive agenda against Muslims.”
Memon further said, “For the Muslims in Maharashtra the most burning issue is the Waqf Amendment Bill where we want the Chief Minister, Deputy CM of Maharashtra to clear their stand on the Waqf Act. The Muslims in Maharashtra can have effective bargaining with these forces if they want Muslims vote.”
“It is believed that the BJP may try to appease Muslims with some political lollypop. But Muslims have become politically conscious and more mature and they have demonstrated that they will become force if they come together,” addedMemon.
According to Mumbai-based senior Journalist Mohammed Wajihuddin, “In Maharashtra, the foremost issue facing Muslims is security. They are losing faith in administration when it comes to protecting them from hatemongers. Recently a Swami made a blasphemous statement against the holy Prophet. Despite several FIRs registered against him, he has not been arrested. A son of union minister Narayan Rane made an Islamophobic comment, but no action has been taken.”
Wajihuddin added, “Another issue is reservation. The previous Congress-NCP government gave 5% quota to Muslims in government jobs and education. When it was challenged in the High Court, the Court allowed 5% quota to Muslims in education, but the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde) government is dillydallying on it. The educational and economic condition of Muslims is worse than that of Dalits. Yet the government is almost doing nothing to better the condition of the community.”
Abdur Rahman, ex-IPS officer whose candidature from Maharashtra’s Dhule Lok Sabha seat was cancelled last time and who had resigned in 2019 in protest of the passing of the controversial CAA in the Rajya Sabha, told Radiance, “Certainly Muslims’ votes are significant in Maharashtra as they are almost 12 percent of population. Percentage-wise they may not be significant but in 35 to 40 assembly constituencies Muslims are the deciding factor. The issues likely to dominate ahead of elections are protection of Muslims, reservation, implementation of The Mahmoodur Rahman Committee Report and major recommendations of Sachar Committee Report.”
AbdurRahman added, “Another very important issue is Muslims’ representation in politics. In 2024 Lok Sabha polls, out of 48 parliamentary seats and as per the percentage of Muslim population in the state, Muslims deserve at least 4 to 5 tickets but not a single Muslim was given ticket from MVA, neither Congress nor NCP or not even Shiv Sena. Two Muslims were in Maharashtra Legislative Council but when their term ended, they were replaced by non-Muslim candidates and even the Legislative Council is Muslim-free. So, this time in the Legislative elections we hope MVA will give some good share in nominations.”
However, ahead of assembly elections, the Congress has conducted an internal survey for 150 assembly seats in Maharashtra. As per its findings, the Congress is likely to win 85 seats. In the 2019 assembly elections, the Congress had won 44 seats with nearly 16 percent votes.