Manipur is gripped by violence again. This time the violence was triggered by the lynching of a Kuki-Zo community member who inadvertently entered a Meitei-dominated area. Five people died in a violent exchange between Kuki and Meitei groups in Jiribam district. One person was shot dead while sleeping, and four armed individuals were killed in the subsequent firefight.
On 8 September, police confronted a group of MeiraPaibis near the Raj Bhavan, using tear gas and smoke bombs to disperse them. Due to rising tensions, all educational institutions (government and private) were ordered closed on September 9 and 10. The violence between the Meitei and Kuki communities, which began in May 2023, has escalated with militants now using drones to drop bombs on targeted villages. This signals a serious intensification of the conflict, with the use of advanced weaponry taking the violence to a new level.
Left in the lurch
Manipur has been in turmoil for 16 months, with no clear direction from the state government in dealing with the situation. Imphal is fumbling, lacking a coherent response to the violence and unrest, raising the suspicion that some powerful forces may be orchestrating the crisis. There is a widespread feeling among the people that the Centre has distanced itself from the human tragedy unfolding in Manipur.
The Chief Minister’s earlier claim that the Prime Minister and Union Home Minister are personally monitoring the situation is questionable, given the unabated violence and lack of concrete interventions. Some analysts have commented that a dual policy of governance might be in play, with reference to the Union Home Minister’s 2023 instructions for the Chief Minister to “look after the valley” while the MHA looks after the hills.
Indian National Congress, President Mallikarjun Kharge criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s handling of Manipur, calling it an “abject failure” that is “unforgivable.” The Congress has demanded immediate dismissal of Biren Singh government and called for the Centre to take over the State’s security.
Kharge stated, “People of Manipur are asking, why doesn’t Modi ji want to end violence in the State. The Supreme Court mandated and monitored ‘Manipur Commission of Inquiry’ into ethnic violence must expedite its investigation. Modi Government must not misuse CBI, NIA and other agencies investigating the violence.”
Issues at hand
The large and spontaneous protests from women and students indicate deep frustration among the people. The wait for an effective response from the government to heal the wounds of Manipur continues endlessly. The demand for a separate administration (potentially a Union Territory or State) by the Kuki-Zo tribal community is a major issue in the prolonged conflict. This demand is gaining both popularity and momentum. There is also concern about the role of the Assam Rifles (a paramilitary force) and their perceived inaction in neutralizing the Kuki militants.
The Suspension of Operations (SoO) pact, which governs the ceasefire between the government and certain militant groups, is said to be in a state of limbo. Although the Chief Minister claimed the pact has not been extended, it appears to still be in force, causing confusion and complicating the efforts to resolve the conflict.
The government has framed the crisis as a mere law-and-order issue, avoiding the deeper ethnic tensions and demands, such as the Meitei community’s push for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status and the opposition from the Kukis. Manipur is becoming increasingly polarized along ethnic lines, and the fear is that the state could become a hotbed of militancy again. Armed groups, with support from political forces, are deepening social divisions, and with the government and politicians unable to resolve the crisis, there are calls for civil society to take the lead in trying to find a solution.
Bad governance
“Good governance” has been a buzzword of the Modi government. However, the ruling BJP’s “double-engine sarkar” (where the same party governs both the state and the centre) has failed to prevent or control the ethnic violence. Chief Minister Biren Singh’s leadership has been inept, with his handling of the conflict lacking sagacity and a clear vision.
Despite Singh’s poor performance, the BJP has continued to back him, even after the Congress won both seats in Manipur in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which should have prompted political change. The Manipur CM has requested for control of the Unified Command which coordinates security operations. He wants it to be handed over to state authorities, and the revocation of the suspension of operations agreement (SoO) with militant groups. Granting these demands could lead to retaliatory violence due to the intense ethnic polarization in Manipur.
The Meiteis say that the safety of their community is extremely fragile and that they have been “reduced to sitting ducks” in buffer zones. There are questions raised about the role of the 60,000 security personnel deployed, as the violence and attacks continue unchecked. The security forces have been caught off guard by the increasing sophistication of militant tactics, such as the use of drones. There is an urgent need for the security apparatus to recalibrate its strategy to deal with the evolving nature of the conflict.
Way Forward
Manipur must get its priorities straight, with a sincere approach to address the core issues rather than being bogged down by political manoeuvring. There must be a stronger intervention from New Delhi, which should go beyond mere monitoring and take effective action to address the conflict.
The central government needs to intervene more decisively to resolve the crisis after consulting all stakeholders. Calling for an all-party meet or trying to design something on the lines of Assam Accord should be on the solution-table. The PM must prioritize Manipur over Ukraine or Gaza and bring peace in his own country before venturing abroad. The Prime Minister is yet to visit the state despite so many requests and criticism.
The crisis in Manipur calls for a political solution. Peace cannot be achieved through military or security-focused measures alone. A political resolution involving the state’s civil society, despite its divisions, is necessary to bridge the trust deficit between warring communities. Rehabilitation efforts for affected people should be undertaken without bias, and divisive, regressive motives must be shunned to restore normalcy.