Soroor Ahmed studies the present volatile situation in Manipur in the light of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s outreach moves in Kerala ahead of the 2024 parliamentary elections.
If Manipur and three other north-eastern states, where majority Christian population have in the recentpast either joined hands with the BJP or voted for it, cannot be spared from communalism, it is reallydoubtful whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s outreach moves in Kerala would succeed.
Within days of Narendra Modi’s Kerala trip Manipur exploded. Though it was essentially Meitei versusKuki clashes over the Scheduled Tribes status for the former, the conflict acquired communal overtonebecause they belonged to different religion. While most Meiteis, who comprise over 50 per cent of thestate population, are Hindus, an overwhelming number of tribes (who form 40 % of population) areChristians. Of them 25 % are Kukis and 15% Nagas.
Though Kukis and Nagas are both Christians, they too had a history of tussle. Yet on May 3 they joinedhands to take out a rally under the banner of All Tribal Students Union Manipur. It was organised tooppose the ST status for Meiteis, who live in valley and dominate the political scene. On the otherhand, the tribal population are mostly spread over hills. The trouble started at that point of time.What is now being feared is that the fight may spill over to the neighbouring states where the twocommunities have substantial population.
MODI’S CHRISTIAN OUTREACH IN KERALA
The rioting started on May 3, that is just 24 days after Narendra Modi’s visit to Sacred HeartCathedral in Delhi on Easter Sunday (April 9) and nine days after his April 24 roadshow in Kochi inKerala, where he tried to win over the Christian community.
While some commentators called it a public relation exercise ahead of G-20 Summit to be held inIndia in September, some others are of the view that Modi is sincere in his approach to woo Christiansand even Pasmanda Muslims as he feels that the slogan of Hindutva has reached its saturation point andmay not ensure victory in 2024 parliamentary election.
Curiously, the start of violence in Manipur almost coincided with the sudden change in Modi’s strategy.Just over a week after the Kerala visit, he plunged into the same old hardline Hindutva stance inKarnataka. But he spoke nothing about the Manipur violence where 41.39 per cent Hindus, 41.29 per centChristians and 8.40 per cent Muslims live.
The state has never witnessed such a largescale Hindu-Christian riots. Instead of calling it a tribalversus non-tribal tussle, one is bound to give it communal colour because the places of worship,especially churches, were the primary target.
Curiously, while the churches of Kukis and even Christian Meiteis were targeted, those of Nagas werelargely spared. This was perhaps because of the political reason. The perpetrators wanted to exploitthe Kuki-Naga friction. At the same time, they did not want to jeopardise the government inneighbouring Christian-dominated Nagaland where the BJP is a partner in the ruling alliance.
If such scale of bloodbath can take place in a North-Eastern state where Christians have no problem inseeking support from the BJP or voting for it, what will happen in the states where the community is insmall minority. Christians elsewhere in India have not forgotten largescale riots at Kandhamal inOdisha in 2007-08 in which officially 39 of them were killed and at least 4,000 injured. Unofficialdeath toll was something between 100 and 500. About 70,000 Christians were uprooted from their homesand 395 churches destroyed. Besides, 40 women were sexually assaulted.
In contrast, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram have overwhelming Christian population yet the regionalparties there had no problem in joining hands with the saffron brigade. Even in the last year’sAssembly election in Manipur a prominent Kuki outfit openly asked the community members to vote for theBJP.
The Christians of Nagaland, Meghalaya and Mizoram did so simply because they face no security threatfrom any Hindutva organisation. There is nobody to oppose their eating and living habits. This is thesituation in Kerala too where the sanghparivar is still not so strong.
However, in Manipur the situation was different. Here the BJP was directly in power and the populationsof Hindus and Christians are almost equal in number. Though the tussle was apparently over the demandfor the tribal status for Meiteis, the spread of Christianity among the Kuki population was alsoexploited by a section of sanghparivar. Here the situation was somewhat similar to Odisha 15 yearsback.
The silence of Modi over Manipur incidents has made it amply clear that in fact the BJP as such is notsincere in improving its ties with Christians or even for that matter any section of Muslims.
IDENTICAL CHRISTIAN, MUSLIM VOTING PATTERN
Actually, the media has given extraordinary coverage to Modi’s recent exercise in Kerala. The groundreality suggests something different. Only two per cent Christians voted for the BJP in 2021 Assemblyelection against 10% in 2016. On the other hand, 39% Christians as well as Muslims voted for the Leftdemocratic Front. In the same way 57% Christians and 58% Muslims voted for the Congress-led UnitedDemocratic Front.
Similarly, in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll more than two-thirds Christians and Muslims threw their lotbehind the UDF, in which Indian Union Muslim League is also a constituent. These figures only confirmthat the voting pattern of both these communities in Kerala is identical. This is so notwithstandingthe fact that there are some differences between the two communities at the social level. The BJP istrying to create division between Christians and Muslims for its own political gain. There are 18.40%Christians and 26.50% Muslims in the state. The film, The Kerala Story, was extensively used during theelection campaign in Karnataka. The aim is not only to create polarisation between 54.70% Hindus andMuslims in the state but widen the communal divide all over India as 2024 Lok Sabha poll is only 12months from now.
The BJP is trying to exploit the situation created after the weakening of Kerala Congress, a regionalparty not to be confused with the Indian National Congress. It is considered a sort of party ofChristians of central Kerala. A couple of leaders of Kerala Congress had resigned and on April 22, thatis just two days before Modi’s roadshow, floated a new outfit called National Progressive Party.Though its leaders reject the perception that it is soft towards the BJP, independent politicalobservers are of the view that NPP may join the National Democratic Alliance.
It is because of this reason that some Church leaders said that they may support the party which takecare of the rubber-growing farmers of central Kerala.
But the sudden developments in Manipur poured cold water in all the efforts of Modi.