June 6-9, 2024, was election week for the European Parliament. It was the first European Parliament election following Brexit and the ninth legislative election since the first direct elections in 1979. Approximately 51% of the 370 million voters in 27 EU member states cast their ballots, with the results favouring right-wing and extreme right parties at the expense of left and liberal-leaning parties. The far-right parties performed well in the Netherlands, France, Italy, and Austria. In Germany, they finished second. This steady swing to the right rang the alarm bells for European Muslims and those aspiring to migrate to EU countries in the near future.
The European Parliament
The European Parliament awards seats to each member country based on its population size (called degressive proportionality). Elections in each member state must also be held using a Proportional Representation system (in which political parties get seats based on their respective vote share). To create a new group in the European Parliament, at least 23 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from one-fourth of EU countries are needed.
There are currently seven groups in the Parliament: (1) European People’s Party (EPP), (2) Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), (3) Renew Europe, (4) Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA), (5) European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), (6) Identity and Democracy (ID), (7) The Left Group (GUE/NGL). Many Centre-right conservative parties, like Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), join the EPP.
The majority of center-left socialist parties, such as Spain’s Socialist Workers’ Party, align with the S&D group. Centrist liberal parties, including Macron’s Renaissance party, are affiliated with Renew Europe. Right-wing parties, such as Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, are part of the ECR and ID groups. No group has enjoyed a majority in the European Parliament in the recent past. The EPP and the Socialists have been the two main groups.
Each election makes the Parliament more divided, leading to coalitions based on specific issues. This year, the right and Far-right have grown while the Greens, Renew, and Socialists have lost some ground. However, pro-Europe groups like the EPP, S&D, Renew, and Greens still have over 60% of the seats.
Two far-right parties, Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Hungarian Fidesz, are not part of any group. Far-right parties are expected to get over 150 seats. Overall, the EPP is the clear winner, but far-right parties have also made significant gains. The following graph (courtesy Al Jazeera) depicts the contours of the EU Parliament after the current elections.
Immigrants will feel the heat
Far-right parties in Europe are known for their hardline anti-immigration stance. They often emphasize the perceived threats posed by immigration to their perceived notion of European national identity and European culture. This includes concerns about the impact of globalization, and the perceived threat from ethnic minorities and Islam. They advocate for stricter limits on those permitted to settle in Europe, and they often blame immigrants for various societal issues, including rising crime rates and welfare dependency.
Many far-right parties also have a Eurosceptic reputation, expressing opposition to the European Union and advocating for policies that prioritize national sovereignty over cosmopolitan governance. This sentiment often intersects with their anti-immigration stance. Mainstream parties across Europe have been forced to shift their positions on immigration in response to the rise of the Far-right. This has been seen as a strategy to counter the appeal of Far-right parties.
There is a two-way process of normalization, where the Center-right increasingly adopts Far-right talking points and opens itself up for deals, while smart Far-right parties moderate some of their more extreme views. This has led to a situation where much of Europe’s Center-right is as hardline on immigration as the Far-right. With the rise of the Far-right, immigrants are bound to feel the heat while those aspiring to enter Europe will encounter new obstacles and challenges.
Muslims are apprehensive
Far-right parties and their leaders are openly racist, xenophobic, and Islamophobic, and their vision of Europe is inherently hostile to all things – Muslim. This trend threatens the fabric of European democracy and societal cohesion. Muslims feel abandoned not just by EU politicians but also by the media. They feel that the EU leadership has failed to acknowledge or address the threat posed by the Far-right.
The anti-Muslim rhetoric has been exacerbated by recent events such as the Israel-Gaza conflict. There has been a clampdown on freedom of speech and the right to peaceful assembly by many EU governments, especially in the context of protests against the Israeli offensive in Gaza. Many times, EU officials have engaged with controversial figures, further alienating minority communities. Just as in India, the rise of the Hindutva saw a decline in Muslim representation in legislative bodies, the rise of the right in Europe has led to a stark underrepresentation of Muslims in the European Parliament and within EU institutions.
The European Union does not officially gather data on the race or religion of its parliamentarians. Nevertheless, in 2019, Euronews stated that Brexit would result in the removal of the three British Muslim Members of the European Parliament. Although there are over 20 million Muslims living within the European Union, it would appear that there is currently not a single Muslim MEP. This lack of representation erodes the legitimacy of the EU Parliament as it ignores the political aspirations of Europe’s diverse population. Despite these challenges, there is a sense of determination among young Muslims to participate in elections and be part of the political discourse.
Writing for the Guardian, Tariq Ramadan correctly analyzed the situation for the Muslim community in Europe saying, “Muslims are facing a new racism, and they have to strive for their rights, but they should do so alongside their fellow citizens and in many fields: domestic and foreign politics, education, media, and social activism. Europeans must stop being complacent in the belief that they are somehow protected from any resurgence of racism or betrayal of fundamental human rights. And European Muslims must stop acting (and reacting) to their problems in isolation.”