MOHAMMAD NAUSHAD KHAN analyses the post-poll scenario with special reference to Congress debacle and division of Muslim votes, and discusses the roadmap Muslims might consider for the future.
In the midst of utter confusion there lies a way where a will to do is and for that all aspects have to be assessed and all ways and means explored because each and every problem has a solution too. What is required is sincere effort and firm faith in the Almighty. Like all other political parties, the Muslim community will also have to contemplate over its strengths and weaknesses in order to streamline future course of action to keep its political influence intact and help make it more pronouncing and effective.
Most of the secular parties were either not ready to face the political heat or they simply chose to walk over. Their governance was so ineffective that they even failed to get hold of their caste combination and social backing. The BJP, on the other hand, tried to wrap up all caste equations with the help of polarisation. There was a deep undercurrent polarisation fuelled by various methods by the BJP but this time the polarisation was a little different as compared to that at earlier times. As a result there was divergent polarisation of Muslim votes towards secular parties and consolidated or reverse polarisation in favour of the BJP. The secular parties that are blaming the Muslim community or organisations should honestly share the blame on their part for having failed to keep their caste loyalty intact.
The debate is on that the Muslim community despite their percentage could not exert their political influence this time is both yes and no. Yes, because the few Muslims elected are less as compared to those in the previous Lok Sabha as well as in proportion to their percentage of population and the party they had supported failed to make a significant mark on the political scene. No, because it was the power of the Muslim votes when moved away from Congress in significant numbers, the Congress Party got reduced to abysmally low, lowest since Independence. The influence of the votes is counted in both ways as to how it helped the party to win and how it became the cause of defeat of a political party. This time the Muslims voted for Congress but not en bloc as they used to do in the last four to five decades. The party lost badly because the non-Muslims who had voted earlier for the Congress switched side to the BJP not because of their Hindutva ideology but because of frustration and anger over price rise and a series of scams and ineffective governance.
The division of Muslim votes and its impact can best be analysed in Rampur constituency which has the highest Muslim concentration of 47.6 per cent and yet the BJP managed to win because all other parties like Congress, AAP, BSP, and SP had fielded Muslim candidates. Of the total 55 Muslim candidates out of 80 parliamentary seats in fray from different political parties in Uttar Pradesh not a single Muslim candidate won. If we go by statistics then this could be the first time since Independence that none of the Muslim candidates won. Communal polarisation apart from all other reasons sharply divided both Hindus and Muslims and its benefit was reaped only by the BJP. Before elections it was presumed by the political analysts that if there is polarisation it could help both the BJP and the SP. But the final figure shows that it was wishful thinking and certainly out of the box.
Of the 80 seats the BJP and its alliance won 73 seats and further came second in rest of the seven seats. Many believe that it might have become possible only because of polarisation and manipulation. In 1980, there were 19 Muslim MPs from UP alone and surprisingly not one in 2014 polls. In the last general elections there were seven Muslim candidates from Uttar Pradesh. But this time all Muslims candidates – 13 from SP, 19 from BSP and nine from the Congress – lost. The BJP fielded no Muslim candidate in UP.
Voting pattern as per the data released by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) reveals that around 9 per cent Muslims voted for the BJP and 43 per cent to Congress while the rest were divided for other secular political parties. The results of 10 Muslim concentration constituencies from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are more than enough to understand the voting pattern of the Muslims and what and how with some serious thinking could have helped the result otherwise particularly from where the Muslims are in sizeable numbers. In Bihar, Muslim votes were less divided as compared to Uttar Pradesh. ————-(-chart figures)
Muslims can still help the party of their choice win in the Muslim concentration constituencies with tacit understanding of the underlying current, candidates in fray and by overstepping themselves out to incorporate other minorities and weaker sections on the basis of grievances and on points in which there could be mutual understanding and belief. Muslims will have to unite first and then go for some kind of social engineering on issues that concern them the most and on issues they are neglecting the most. Along with Muslim issues the overall issues of minorities and weaker sections should be addressed for wider acceptance and influence. Nusrat Ali, Secretary General Jamaat-e-Islami Hind, while talking to Radiance, said that Muslims should remain alert and aware of their issues and those issues which can be solved by Muslims themselves should be done collectively. The issues which require the government’s attention must also be raised whenever required. He also added that there can be differences with one party or the government but whosoever in place issues will have to be raised and addressed accordingly.
The election results and the percentage vote share and seats won have once again raised the issue of proportional representation. Dr Zafarul Islam Khan, president All India Muslim Majlis-e-Mushawarat has rightly pointed out in his article in The Milli Gazette (1-15 June 2014) that the BJP won 282 seats whereas Congress won only 44 which is, factually speaking, a result of our defective electoral system. Under this system, even if 20 candidates secure 90 per cent votes, the 21st candidate will get elected even if he gets only 10 per cent or even less votes, and all the remaining votes will become worthless. Many countries have trashed this system and adopted the system of proportional representation (PR). Under PR, each party gets as many seats as its share in the total number of votes cast in its favour across the country. In other words, every vote matters in PR and is represented in the political system. Till recently, the BJP itself had been demanding PR because at that time it stood to lose under the existing system.
Now after the election there is flip-flop on the BJP side when compared to what was said during the election campaign and what approach the BJP has adopted after initial posturing of unity and coordination between SAARC countries. During the election campaign Narendra Modi, in one of his interviews, said he would be happy to see Muslim girls and boys having the Qur’ān in one hand and laptop in the other. In another interview Modi ruled out the possibilities of scrapping any existing constitutional and statutory mechanism but instead would work to make it more effective. But on the contrary, his minister or some affiliates are doing the opposite by raising issues like Article 370, reservation, etc. Even more surprisingly, in South a group having close links with the BJP has demanded ban on the morning Adhan. Is this the model of the promise made of good governance? Are all these ministers jumping the gun or are they following the line of the government? Is it all fair to raise such issues when it is required by the government to put everything back on the track for development and good governance?
Or, in other words, the BJP after assuming power is trying to do what Praful Bidwai has mentioned in his article “Hindutva-capitalism takes power” (The Hindustan Times, 27 May) that with the BJP achieving an absolute majority, it will be pressed to revive the core-Hindutva agenda, including the Ram temple, Article 370, and a Uniform Civil Code. The temple is seemingly the least contentious. But if the BJP builds a raucous anti-Muslim agitation around it, it will generate serious strife. Article 370 will be internationally controversial, and risk militarising the Kashmir crisis further. If a Uniform Civil Code is promoted, not as a universal gender-justice agenda, but imposed on Muslims, it could lead to bloodshed. The Parivar will soon begin its destructive “Long March” through India’s already-weak democratic institutions. It will try to subvert the judiciary, and educational and cultural institutions. It will also manipulate the media. It understands the media’s importance and its vulnerability to pressure from corporations, which increasingly drive its agenda.