Patna, Jan. 31: The exit from INDIA and reinduction in NDA of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has baffled most of the state population, including the Muslims. He took the oath of office on January 28 for the ninth time since 2000. This is his sixth stint as NDA chief minister.
Nitish Kumar has been with the NDA for most of the time but maintained a distance from the BJP’s communal agenda for a while and many Muslims saw him as secular. But this time even the staunchest Muslim supporters of Nitish are finding it hard to explain his switch.
Nitish is credited with maintaining communal harmony in Bihar significantly barring the exceptions even while BJP was his ruling partner. He seems to be quite successful in containing the BJP in the state but his stand on several issues like the CAA, Triple Talaq and abrogation of Article 370 could not be sustained at the centre.
As CAA is expected to be implemented in the country, Nitish’s secular credentials would be again on test. Though Nitish opposed NRC, saying Kahe Ka NRC (What NRC!) but his party chose to support the Citizen Amendment Bill (CAB) which later became CAA.
Seemanchal or the bordering area of Bihar will be Nitish’s other test after joining hands with the BJP. BJP leaders have been very aggressively claiming that there is a wide-ranging infiltration of Bangladeshis in the Seemanchal area which consists of Kishanganj, Purnia, Araria and Katihar districts. The BJP leaders target the Bangla-speaking people in those areas as Bangladeshi. It could easily be realized what happens if CAA and NRC are implemented in the country and the Bangla-speaking Muslims are asked to prove their identity.
The other point of concern for the minorities in Bihar is what happens to the schemes of the minority welfare department. Nitish’s party had no Muslim MLA in the 2020 Assembly election. He had to induct Zaman Khan in JD(U) who had won as a Bahujan Samaj Party candidate from the Chaninpur seat in the Kaimur district. Zaman Khan was made the minister of the minority welfare department. No Muslim MLA was sworn in as minister in the first swearing-in ceremony when Nitish became the chief minister for the ninth time.
It may be mentioned that the BJP had two deputy chief ministers earlier in 2020 but they are changed now. The new deputy chief ministers – Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha – had been strong critics of Nitish and it is said that they would make his functioning very tough. It may affect Nitish’s minority policies also.
After joining hands with Bihar’s Grand Alliance consisting of Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and Left parties on 9th August 2022, Nitish promised to root out BJP from the centre, and by June 2023 he convened a meeting of all major opposition parties in Patna which later got converted to INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance).
After dumping BJP in 2022, Nitish famously said that he would like to die instead of joining hands with BJP again. That is why he was supposed to be a big force to strengthen secular politics in India. On the other hand, BJP leader and Central Home Minister Amit Shah also said the door of the BJP was permanently shut for Nitish Kumar.
Nitish’s party leaders always insisted that he be made convener of the opposition unity. They also said that Nitish deserved to be a Prime Ministerial candidate. Later, Nitish was offered the post of convener but he refused which was considered an indication that he would leave INDIA, which he did a few days later.
Now, the question being asked is what will be the electoral effect of Nitish’s exit from INDIA.It is clear now that the situation in Bihar for INDIA has become very difficult and easier for the BJP and NDA. NDA had won 39 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar in 2019 – BJP 17, JD(U) 16 and LJP 6 seats. It was considered that the BJP would find it difficult torepeat that performance as Nitish with his EBC votes was not with them.
Now, the tilt of EBC votes would be with the BJP as Nitish is with them. The vote base ofCongress is very weak. INDIA now heavily depends upon the vote base of Lalu Prasad’s RJD and itscharismatic young leader Tejashwi Yadav. Left parties are in INDIA and they had performed well inthe Assembly election 2020 but it’s not certain that they would be able to repeat that in the LokSabha elections too.
Nitish was sworn in as chief minister for the first time on 3rd March, 2000. He could not prove amajority and resigned on 10th March, 2000. At that time Bihar was united with Jharkhand and itsAssembly strength was 324 members.
Five years later, on 24th November, 2005 Nitish took the oath of Chief Minister for the second timewith a clear majority with the help of BJP. His third stint started on26th November 2010 and continued till 17th March 2014.
In 2014, Nitish developed differences and parted ways with BJP. But JD(U) could not perform well in the2014 parliamentary election. So, taking moral responsibility, he resigned from the Chief Minister postand handed the reign to his then party colleague Jitan Ram Manjhi, who later establishedhis own party – Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).
However, he did not allow Manjhi to continue as Chief Minister and took the reign again on22nd February 2015 and continued till 19th November 2015. This year Nitish’s JD(U) became thepart of Grand Alliance with RJD and Congress. He took the oath of Chief Minister for the fifth time on20th November, 2015.
Two years later in 2017, Nitish dumped the Grand Alliance on the excuse of alleged charges ofcorruption against Tejashwi Yadav. He resigned on 26th July and again took the oath of Chief Ministerby joining NDA.
In 2020 Nitish fought election with the BJP being NDA Chief Ministerial candidate. His partycould get only 43 seats, still he took the oath of Chief Minister for the seventh time on 16thNovember 2020.
He again dumped the NDA and joined Grand Alliance in 2022 and took the oath of Chief Minister for theeighth time on 22nd August.