The results of the assembly elections in the three tiny, tribal-concentrated north-eastern Indian states of Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland are being portrayed by a section of the media as a major victory for the BJP. But the reality is the opposite. Even though Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke at two election rallies and did a road show in the predominantly Christian state of Meghalaya, where the BJP ran alone, it only won two seats out of 60. Even the BJP brazenly joined the NPP government in Meghalaya, against which it had levelled serious corruption charges.
Parallel to this, BJP is the junior partner of the ruling Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) in Nagaland, another state with a major Christian population.
While in Tripura, BJP somehow managed to retain the power thanks to the division of votes between the opposition parties as well as by a combination of money and brute power.
MEGHALAYA
The election threw up a hung assembly where Chief Minister Conard Sangma’s National People’s Party (NPP) and the BJP were coalition partners but fought elections separately. According to the results on ECI website for 59 out of 60 seats, the NPP has won 26 seats in a hung assembly. Significantly, regional parties like UDP and VPP also came out with flying colours. The United Democratic Party (UDP) won 11 and the Voice of the People Party (VPP) four. Two other regional parties – the Hill State People’s Democratic Party (HSPDP) and PDF – picked up two seats each. The Trinamool Congress and the Congress have five MLAs each. While BJP won two seats.
The once-powerful Congress is currently fighting for its very existence, while the BJP continues to struggle with public acceptance. The Congress only managed to win five seats this time around compared to their 21-seat victory in 2018. Before the election most of the MLAs defected to TMC which also fought the election separately.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other top guns of the BJP, including Home Minister Amit Shah who had campaigned extensively in Meghalaya failed to create any magic for the party this time, too. The party failed to add to its 2018 tally of two seats with veterans Alexander LalooHek and SanborShullai retaining Pynthorumkhrah and South Shillong.
Unlike the past elections, the BJP fielded candidates in all 60 constituencies and claimed to have been better organised.
In spite of using its awesome resources, the BJP also failed to improve its vote share. In both the Legislative Assembly and the Lok Sabha general elections, the party received more than 9.5 percent of the vote, but won only two seats.
BJP is being dubbed anti-Christian party in the state and other parts of the northeast. All the regional parties attacked the BJP and called it anti-Christian ahead of the polls but they joined hands to form the government with the BJP.
“These parties were saying BJP is killing Christians and attacking churches but I am surprised to see that everybody here needs BJP to form the government,” said Congress MLA, Saleng Sangma while speaking with Radiance.
“The BJP has only two MLAs. Earlier they spoke against BJP but without it, nobody can form the government here. Why are people fooled this way?” he asked.
“When you don’t want the BJP, you should not form a government with it. If you need BJP, say directly to vote for it as they can bring more development in the state,” Sangma said sarcastically.
Less than a month ago, Prime Minister and Home Minister had called Meghalaya the most corrupt state in the country. It is said the NPP has written a letter to Amit Shah to help in forming the government in Meghalaya.
TMC leader Mukul Sangma accused the NPP of using “black money” to win the election. He argued that the people had not given clear mandate to any party. He repeatedly said that having fought the election on corruption issues, it was up to all “responsible” parties to come together to deny them access to power.
While addressing a press conference in New Delhi, Meghalaya Pradesh Congress Committee president and MP Vincent H. Pala attacked the NPP and BJP, saying they ‘betrayed’ the people and ‘usurped’ the mandate. He said the Prime Minister had come to Meghalaya, the Union Home Minister had come to Meghalaya and the BJP President had come to Meghalaya, all of them abused, accused the NPP, but, after the results, when the BJP got only two seats out of 60 seats then the next day they joined together.
So, this is what the BJP is, how they fool the people of India, and how they fool the people of Meghalaya, that’s why, I think, what they have given in their manifesto, what they have preached, or what they have done before the election during the campaign is all… they betrayed the people. These are false promises and today BJP is behind the NPP. They have given the threat to the regional party just so that all of them will come with them, Pala said.
TRIPURA
If votes had not been split among the opposition parties, the BJP and its ally IPFT would have suffered a heavy blow in Tripura, the second-most populous state in the northeast after Assam.
BJP’s tally came down from 44 to 32 in this election. BJP’s vote share and seat tally came down but the margin was still decisive – 32 seats in the 60-member assembly, down from 36 in 2018. CPM won 11 seats while its ally Congress three. The newly formed tribal outfit TipraMotha bagged 13 seats.
The former ruling party CPM, which fought election in alliance with Congress, said unwilling to accept that it won a wafer-thin majority losing over 10 per cent of its vote share and the coalition losing 11 of its sitting seats, the BJP has unleashed an orgy of violence in the state.
Even this small majority has been acquired after spending unprecedented amounts of money and other malpractices, said the CPM and greeted all those who have voted for the Left Front and opposition candidates by rejecting the BJP.
The Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (TIPRA) Motha, a regional party founded by erstwhile prince Pradyot Bikram ManikyaDebbarma after he defected from the Congress, made a good showing by capturing 13 seats in the assembly’s 60 members.
With a population of over four million, Tripura is the 2nd most populous state in the North Eastern Region. The social composition of the population of Tripura is diverse. Around one-third of the population belongs to the Scheduled Tribes. Once it was a tribal-dominated state.
In 1901 Tripura’s population was 1.73 lakh, with tribals making up nearly 52.89 percent of the whole. By 1941, the total population rose to 5.13 lakh with a barely 50.09 percent tribal majority. But by 1981, the tribal population dipped to 28.44 percent of a total population of 2.05 million because of several socio-politicaldevelopments. Today, Bengalis constitute 70% of the population in Tripura, outnumbering the tribals in the state.
The influx of Bengali speakers in Tripura during the 1970s has resulted in the marginalisation of the tribal population in politics, education, and the arts. As a result, the tribal community has grown resentful and uneasy and paved the way for the emergence of TIPRA Motha. The Left and supporters of the Congress have historically split the Bengali community. The working class and intellectuals are heavily influenced by the left-wing parties, particularly the CPI(M), whilst the Congress Party is primarily present in urban areas.
There was a four-corner contest in the state that paved the way for BJP’s victory. David Mursang, who was earlier BJP youth wing president, told Radiance that BJP and its ally got only 37 percent votes while 63 percent votes were divided between CPM-Congress alliance, TMC and TIPRA. Mursang, a tribal leader of TIPRA, said it emerged as a voice of the tribal in the state by bagging 13 seats.
NAGALAND
Nagaland is another Christian-dominated state where the population has been divided on tribal lines. There are 17 major tribe groups having their political affiliations according to their respective interests.
In the election, the ruling alliance between the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and the BJP has retained power by securing a majority on its own by bagging 37 seats in the House of 60.
The Congress, which dominated the state from several years up to 2003, ran candidates on 23 seats but once more came up empty-handed. The NDPP got 25 seats, eight more than in 2018, and the BJP won 12 seats, the same as in the previous election. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) secured seven seats. It was expected that the NCP would be the main Opposition party in the state. However, it extended support to the government, which means there will be no Opposition party in the Nagaland Assembly. The party’s decision did not receive much support from the opposition.
The way the outcomes of these assemblies have been promoted does not correspond to reality. Thus, there are only six Lok Sabha seats across these three states. But this serves as yet another reminder to the Opposition parties that they must work together to resist the divisive forces. Otherwise, it will be challenging to stop these forces from regaining power.