As the second wave of Coronavirus slowly subsides from its peak, there is talk of a possible third wave. A variant known as the double-mutant found in our country is alleged to be one of the reasons behind the gigantic surge of cases during the second wave. Understandably, there is a lot of focus and understanding about the precautions to be taken against the virus and the medications to fight against it. However, basic information about virology, epidemiology and viral pathogenesis should also be given out to know more about the virus that infected about 165 million people and killed nearly 3.5 million according to the latest official figures.
VIRUS BASICS AND VARIANTS
A virus can be considered a small parasite. It cannot reproduce by itself. However, once it infects a host cell, it can start replicating. According to literature, the Coronavirus shape resembles a ball-like structure with its genetic material (RNA polymers) within its belly and surrounded by an outer envelope made of lipids (fats) with proteins inserted. Some of these project out in the shape of spikes and are instrumental in helping the virus latch onto the host (lung cells) and penetrate it. Once inside the host cells, they start multiplying their genomes (analogous to an old photocopier). However, many of these duplicates are not exact replicas. They are slightly different from the original.
Each of these imperfect copies is a variant. A variant of a virus is made of a collection of mutations. These imperfections or mutations do not alter the way the virus works or behaves. In fact, some replications are often less successful (in spreading and causing damage) than the original strain. However, some rare mutations acquire the capability to make the Coronavirus act in different ways and hence we have to keep an eye on them.
For example, they could become more infectious or stealthier (capable of avoiding the immune system). The more a virus is allowed to replicate unchecked, the more it gets an opportunity to accumulate these self-perpetuating rare mutations. This happens when viruses are allowed to spread quickly through a population or encounter a host that is weak and incapable of fighting it.
If a particular set of mutations makes a variant more successful, it may become more prominent than others. This is the time it becomes discernible and gets noticed. Epidemiologists may even decide to label it a ‘variant of concern’. It takes months of research for scientists to identify what has changed in these variants. Because every spreading variant does not necessarily mean it has an advantageous mutation. For example, a small number of people could move a variant from one place to another even though there may be no significant change to the biology of the virus. This is called the “Founder Effect”. The good news is that the Coronavirus is mutating very slowly compared to influenza and it seems that the vaccines developed so far will remain at least partly effective on the new variants.
DOUBLE MUTANT FOUND IN INDIA
In a report in the Indian Express by Anuradha Mascarenhas (21 May), “INSACOG is the leading national consortium of top scientific institutions in the country involved in genome sequencing of the virus. Over 20,000 samples of SARS-CoV-2 have been sequenced from across states, and the consortium has identified variants of concern in 8,000 samples with B.1.617 variant being the dominant one.” This B.1.167 has now been found in over 44 countries. WHO has officially classified it as a variant of concern.
The term double mutant is actually a misnomer. The reason being all variants, including the one discovered in India have one or more mutations. An interesting debate arose regarding the B.1.167 variant when the government of India came out with a statement saying: “Several media reports have covered the news of World Health Organisation (WHO) classifying B.1.617 as a variant of global concern. Some of these reports have termed the B.1.617 variant of the coronavirus as an “Indian Variant”. These media reports are without any basis, and unfounded. This is to clarify that WHO has not associated the term “Indian Variant” with the B.1.617 variant of the coronavirus in its 32-page document. In fact, the word “Indian” has not been used in its report on the matter.”
Many, on social media pointed out that our government has itself called different strains by their country of origin/detection. For example, in a press briefing on the actions taken, preparedness and updates on COVID-19, dated: 23.02.2021, a member of the Niti Aayog clearly talked about – “3500 samples which were subject to sequencing, 187 individuals had the presence of UK strains, 6 people had South African strain and one person had Brazilian strain.” Despite it being a case of the pot calling the kettle black, there is legitimacy in the concern of naming virus strains by the country of discovery (first traced).
THE THIRD WAVE
Addressing a press conference on 5 May, Principal Scientific Advisor K Vijay Raghavan said: “A phase 3 (Third Wave) is inevitable, given the high level of circulating virus. But it is not clear on what timescale this phase 3 will occur. Hopefully, incrementally we should prepare for new waves. Previous infections and vaccines will cause adaptive pressure on the virus on new kinds of changes to try and escape it. We should be prepared scientifically to take care of that. So B.1.117 and other variants like B.1.617 are accumulating changes on which vaccines show excellent efficacy. However, ongoing surveillance is needed. And new variants are inevitable.”
The number of daily new cases appears to be in a declining phase with the daily case count declining to about 2.5 lakh plus from the peak of 4 lakh plus. If the present trend persists, it is quite possible India would decline to the daily caseload that it had in February 2021. A fresh surge would thus be classified as a third wave if there are new cases in significantly high numbers and if that continues for weeks or months.
If we analyse our situation from a spiritual perspective, these waves upon waves demonstrate the tremendous power of Allah and are an expression of our helplessness and our vulnerability before the Might of the All-Mighty. It is the responsibility of the entire humanity to reflect on which attitude and behaviour are responsible for such a calamity to befall us.
Allah says: “For He, it is Who has appointed you vicegerent over the earth, and has exalted some of you over others in rank that He may try you in what He has bestowed is upon you. Indeed your Lord is swift in retribution, and He is certainly All-Forgiving, All-Compassionate.” (Al Quran 6:165)
We must understand that the entire life of man is in fact, a vast examination wherein man is being tested about the trust he has received from God: how sensitive he is to that trust, to what extent he lives up to it, and to what extent he proves to be competent with it. What position man will be able to attain in the Next Life depends on the result of this test.