As the leaders of various political parties other than the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party are making tireless efforts to forge the Opposition unity before the Assembly elections in some States and Lok Sabha elections 2024,Soroor Ahmed studies its possibilities. However, he believes thatthe real picture may emerge only after mid-December 2023 Assembly elections are over in Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Though the effort for an opposition unity got a boost on April 12 after Bihar chiefminister Nitish Kumar and his deputy Tejashwi Prasad Yadav met Congress PresidentMallikarjun Kharge and his predecessor Rahul Gandhi and also the Aam Aadmi Party leader,Arvind Kejriwal, later the same evening, the real picture may emerge only after mid-December 2023 Assembly elections are over in Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh andRajasthan. On April 13 Nationalist Congress Party supremo Sharad Pawar too met the two topCongress leaders.
As there would be little scope left for friction within the Opposition rank after thestate polls in these three months period before the April-May Lok Sabha election, theoverall atmosphere for the cooperation would be more congenial. The regional satraps whoare at present sitting on the fence may come out openly in favour of the Opposition unity.If the formula of One Seat One Candidate, as practised in the 1977 parliamentary election,takes a shape in a majority of constituencies – if not all – it would be a big challenge forthe ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. Even in 1977 the Janata Party, a hurriedly formedconglomeration of five parties, contested in just over 400 parliamentary constituencies.
The newly merged Janata Party won 75 per cent of the seats it contested. All this hadhappened between the announcement of election by the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi onJanuary 19, 1977 and March 24, 1977, when the first non-Congress PM, Morarji Desai, tookoath. Indira did not get any idea to respond to such a fast pace of political development.
FENCE-SITTERS RESPONSE
Leaders like Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal and his AndhraPradesh counterpart Jagan Mohan Reddy of YSR Congress – who are at present showingneutrality – may also switch side at that moment. This is simply because at present they donot want to antagonise the Narendra Modi government which may unleash central agenciesagainst them. If they abandon the policy of equi-distance from both the BJP and Congressand drift towards the latter just a couple of months before the Lok Sabha poll, the saffronparty may not get enough time to target them. It may be caught by an element of surpriseas in the case of Indira Gandhi in 1977 and Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2004.
But Odisha and Andhra Pradesh have some problems because the Assembly election in thesetwo states are due before June 2024 – that is they may go to poll along with the Lok Sabhaelection. As in both the two states the BJP is fast emerging as a major challenger, Patnaikand Reddy may not side with the saffron party in case of hung Parliament scenario. Theymay not openly go to the Congress-led alliance but may certainly soften their standtowards the latter in the case of formation of government. This may be like in 2004 whenSamajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Left Front threw their weight towards the UnitedProgressive Alliance though they contested election separately.
But if the Congress-Telugu Desam Party-Left alliance comes up in Andhra Pradesh and poses abig challenge before Reddy, the situation may change.
So far OSOC is concerned, there may not be much problem in Bihar, Tamil Nadu JharkhandMaharashtra and even Uttar Pradesh. The Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee, Aam AadmiParty of Arvind Kejriwal and Bharatiya Rashtriya Samiti of K Chandrashekhar Rao have someissues as they want to expand their political base. They all nurse national ambition evenif they appear unachieveable.
West Bengal, Telangana, Delhi and Punjab have in total 79 seats. The TMC, AAP and BRS maycontest election separately in their respective states, but in the post-poll situationthey are not in a position to support the BJP. They are well awareof the fact as to how theBJP has marginalised the Janata Dal (United), Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal, the threeoldest allies.
LEFT FRONT’S STAND
The Left is likely to go in alliance with Congress in West Bengal and Tripura but not inKerala. But here the BJP is very weak and whosoever wins it would be advantage opposition.The BJP is worried as if the OSOC formula succeeds even partially, the saffron party may bein a big trouble. Not only in 1977 but in 2004 unexpected has happened and powerful PrimeMinisters Indira Gandhi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee have lost elections. And that too whenthe Opposition camp had no leader of the stature of Indira and Vajpayee.
In 2004 the BJP tried to take the Opposition by surprise when it on January 11 announcedto prepone the election by six months. But by May 13 Vajpayee was voted out of power whenthe UPA existed only in Bihar and Tamil Nadu where DMK and RJD were the main partners.The SP, BSP and Left parties came only after May 13. The result was so when TMC, TDP,Janata Dal (United), Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal, National Conference, etc. were with theBJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Sharad Pawar, along with Tariq Anwar and P.A. Sangmahad in May 1999 formed The Nationalist Congress Party asthey were opposed to Sonia Gandhibecoming President of the party because of her foreign origin.
Today the BJP is alone. It has antagonised all the political parties. Mind it on its ownthe saffron party got 37.36 per cent votes in 2019 and that too after massive electioncampaign.
However, the saffron parivar are still banking heavily on the party’s performance inGujarat, Uttar Pradesh and North East.