SOROOR AHMED comments on the recent developments in neighbouring Sri Lanka and Nepal, which had its impact on India at the height of electioneering.
When the election process started in India it was feared that terrorists from across our western border may try to disturb it. The shadow of 26/11 had been lurking all over the country. But more than that it was the development in neighbouring Sri Lanka and Nepal, which, one way or the other, had its impact on India at the height of electioneering. The offensive against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE) and the bid to remove the army chief of Nepal, General Rukmangad Katuwal, and subsequent resignation by the country’s Prime Minister, Parchanda, were the two developments which made the Indian policymakers sit up and ponder.
Though political parties in Tamil Nadu tried to cash in on the sympathy wave generated for their brethren in the island nation, the change of guard in Nepal came somewhat late to influence the voters as much. But one thing is clear; the happenings in south and north of India is a matter of great security concern as the Indian policymakers see a greater Chinese involvement in them.
There is no denying the fact that China wants to have influence in Nepal, but what largely remains unnoticed is its move to have strategic say in the Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is so keen to have a very good relationship with Sri Lanka.
The Indian Ocean is crucial as it is not only on way to the Middle East but to Africa where Chinese influence has, in the last several years, increased manifold. Be it oil exploration in Angola, purchase of huge chunk of farmland for agricultural purpose in Congo and Mozambique, supply of arms to other nations of that continent Chinese activities are being watched carefully in South Block.
Sri Lanka is almost half way between the coast of China and Africa. The Chinese also has an excellent relationship with Myanmar (Burma), the otherwise outcaste nation east to India. China uses the ports of Myanmar and Pakistan to cut short its distance to the Middle East and Africa. These ports are not only used for trade and commerce but also military and naval purposes.
Chinese naval ambition dates back to 15th century when Mahmud Shams (Chinese name Zheng Hi), arguably the greatest navigator of the world, took his huge fleet to the South-East Asia, South Asia, including the Indian coast, a round to Africa and then went on to discover America in 1421, that is, 71 years before Columbus. Those were the heydays of the Ming dynasty. China is just trying to imitate that policy.
But the development in Nepal suggests that China not only plans to control the seas and oceans south, east and west of India but also wants to have full sway over the lofty mountains on the north, east and west of our country. The Prachanda government’s move to integrate the former Maoist guerrillas – now living in the UN supervised camps – in the military was opposed by the army chief, General Rukmangad Katuwal. Prachanda sacked him, but the main allies in his government opposed the move. The President, Ram Baran Yadav, also stonewalled his move forcing him to quit. This development has thrown Nepal into political turmoil after its transition to democracy last May. The nascent republic is facing a new crisis of sorts. No new government can be formed without the support of Prachanda-led Maoists, who control over one-third of Parliament’s strength. It also needs to be mentioned that 22 of Nepal’s districts bordering India have a sizeable population of Madhesis, the people of the Indian origin. Apart from President, Ram Baran Yadav, the vice president, Parmanand Jha and foreign minister in the outgoing cabinet, Upendra Yadav, come from Madhesi community, who also have palpable presence in the Parliament.
What concerns India is that Prachanda’s move has the backing of China, which wants to play a much bigger role in the Himalayan republic. A friendly army south to China and on the border of strategic rival India will be a great boost to the rulers in Beijing. Kathmandu is directly linked by highway to the Chinese port of Shanghai and other cities.
What is ironic is that today Nepal is facing the crisis in integrating its own men in army when the truth is that this nation has been allowing India and Great Britain to recruit its youth in their respective armies for the last couple of centuries.
The crisis in Nepal is too complex to be ignored. With the indigenous Maoists quite active in a large part of India, especially during the election days, the development in that country is likely to have spill-over effect on this side of our porous border.