Arshad Shaikh examines the Prime Minister’s speech on 15 August and hopes the prophesised Amrit Kaal will not turn into Achhe Din which have become a euphemism for India’s economic and political decline.
On 15 August 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a rousing speech from the ramparts of the historic Red Fort after unfurling the tricolour. It was the PM’s 8th Independence Day speech that lasted nearly an hour and a half.
The PM announced, “We should not limit the occasion of 75 years of Indian independence to just one ceremony. We must lay the groundwork for new resolutions and move forward with new resolutions. Starting from here, the entire journey of the next 25 years, when we celebrate the centenary of Indian independence, marks the Amrit period of creation of a new India. The fulfilment of our resolutions in this Amrit period will take us to the hundredth anniversary of Indian independence with pride”.
It means that from now on until the year 2047, India is poised to enter a golden era of development, peace and prosperity. Sketching the contours of his vision, PM Modi said, “The goal of ‘Amrit Kaal’ is to ascend to new heights of prosperity for India and the citizens of India. The goal of ‘Amrit Kaal’ is to create an India where the level of facilities is not dividing the village and the city. The goal of ‘Amrit Kaal’ is to build an India where the government does not interfere unnecessarily in the lives of citizens. The goal of ‘Amrit Kaal’ is to build an India where there is world’s every modern infrastructure.”
While this dream of a vibrant and affluent Bharat is laudable, we must also critically analyse whether this grandiose plan is ‘doable’ or mere rhetoric and another ‘jumla’ like the PM’s earlier slogan ‘Achhe Din Aane Wale Hain’ (the good days are coming). As the English say “the proof of the pudding is in the eating”.
THE ROADMAP TO ‘AMRIT KAAL’
The salient features of how we plan to achieve that golden era of abundance and prosperity were laid out briefly in the PM’s speech. The first indication of which was that this initiative will be people-driven. The formula is ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas’ but through ‘Sabka Prayas’. Naturally, the onus of success then lies on the shoulders of the people and not the government.
This is in line with the broad philosophy of this government namely ‘minimum government and maximum governance’. It implies that the government does not see a role in doing those things which are best left to the market forces and secondly the government systematically gets rid of all those laws and procedures which may burden the market with unnecessary controls and restrictions that impede the ‘Ease of Living’ and ‘Ease of Doing Business’.
To cite an example, the PM said, “Today dozens of labour laws have been subsumed into just four codes. Tax related arrangements have also been made easy and become faceless now. We will have to work together so that such reforms are not limited to the government only, but percolate down to gram panchayats, municipal corporations and municipalities. I am calling upon, making an earnest appeal to all the central and state departments to launch a campaign to review the existing rules and procedures. We have to get rid of every rule, every process which has become a hindrance and a burden for the people of the country. I know what has accumulated in 70-75 years will not go away in a day or in a year. But if we start working with a purpose, we will definitely be able to do this.”
NEED TO BUILD INFRASTRUCTURE AND PROVIDE RESOURCES
The PM acknowledged, “Our systems are insufficient compared to that of the rich countries of the world, we do not have what the rich countries have. Moreover, we also have a greater population compared to the other countries of the world.”
To bolster our economy and bring it on par with the topmost developed nations of the world, PM Modi unveiled some ambitious plans in his speech. The requirements were classified as, “New generation infrastructure; world class manufacturing; cutting edge innovations and new age technology.”
To aid the process of facilitating these objectives, the PM outlined, “In the near future, we are going to launch the National Master Plan of Prime Minister ‘Gati Shakti’ which will be a huge scheme and fulfil the dreams of crores of countrymen. This scheme of more than 100 lakh crores rupees will result in new employment opportunities for lakhs of youth. Gati Shakti will reduce the travel time for the common man and the productivity of our industry will also increase. Gati Shakti will also go a long way in making our local manufacturers globally competitive and this will also develop new possibilities for the creation of future economic zones. In this decade, the power of speed will form the basis of India’s transformation.”
The PM stressed on the need to “move towards saturation: 100 per cent villages should be connected through roads; 100 per cent families should have a bank account; 100 per cent beneficiaries should have Ayushmaan Bharat card; 100 per cent eligible persons should have Ujjwala Gas connection.”
REALITY CHECK
There can be no doubt that the PM has correctly articulated the hopes and aspirations of the people of India about their future. However, a cursory glance at the macroeconomic situation of India along with the policy framework adopted by the government may lead us to the conclusion that the journey towards ‘Amrit Kaal’ is quite arduous and its milestones difficult to cross.
For example, we have the following international rankings: life expectancy (134/195), infant mortality (113/223), global hunger index (94/107), human capital index (115/152), literacy rate (168/234), education index (145/191), world happiness report (139/156), human development index (129/189), global gender gap report (108/144), corruption perception index (86/179), press freedom index (142/180).
Our public health expenditure is around 1.28% of our GDP, our education budget is around 3.5% of GDP while our defence budget is close to 14% of GDP and India’s total debt burden now stands at 60% of GDP compared to 51.6% last year.
The number of people who pay income tax is just 1.46 crore with only 4.6 million people reporting income of over Rs 1 million. The direct tax to GDP ratio stands at a 14-year low of 5.1% while the total tax to GDP ratio is less than 10%. Experts point out that there is a strong possibility of India missing out in leveraging its demographic dividend and falling into the ‘middle income trap’. A Harvard Kennedy School research study concluded that India is stuck in a “capability trap” where we know the destination and the route needed to be taken but lack the ability to implement the strategy to do so.
Another critical aspect to remember for a nation aspiring to become “Vishwguru” is that “great nations” are not merely economically and militarily powerful but should also possess a strong moral fibre. The foundations of the nation should be built on equity, justice and freedom. Development that is built by trampling over the rights of the minorities, the marginalised and the have-nots is not sustainable and cannot be a model worthy of emulation. It is said, “A statesman is a politician who places himself at the service of the nation. A politician is a statesman who places the nation at his service”. ‘Amrit Kaal’ will require many statesmen who seem to have become a vanishing breed.