The BJPs defeat in the Hindi heartland, in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, reminds us of the party’s abject failure in reciprocating the sentiments of the of the 2014 verdict because polarisation cannot always substitute for performance. The takeaway point for the Congress is that the party until yesterday struggling to maintain its political relevance has gained momentum and is now back in the game. But simple mahagathbandhan is not going to work unless it can provide an alternative political narrative along with Mahagathbandhan ahead of 2019.
Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, a journalist and expert on Right-Wing Hindu politics, on the election verdict told Radiance, “BJP is likely to pay a huge price in the coming 2019 general elections if it does not introspect and learn from the assembly verdict that defeat in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan was because of its politics and policies.”
Notably, even a BJP Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Kakade has said as per media reports and quoted by News agency ANI. He said, “I think it’s because we forgot the issue of development that Prime Minister Narendra Modi took up in 2014, and turned our focus to statues, name-changing and the Ram temple.”
From the verdict, it has become crystal clear that some serious soul searching and introspection is required by the BJP and the Congress if we take into account results of the five states. The BJP cannot take the voters for granted that at the end of the day they can be swayed by emotive issues by fanning religious sentiments and anti-minority rhetoric everywhere and all the time. The voters are now smarter and they want their leaders to connect with their issues on the ground instead of only rhetoric and illusionary promises. This is a good sign of mature democracy where people’s aspiration is supreme and parties are voted to power on the basis of performance.
Afroz Alam, Associate Professor and Head of Department of Political Science, Maulana Azad National Urdu University (MANUU), shared his point of view on election results with Radiance by saying, “The election result in the recently held Assembly elections is not at all surprising except in Chhattisgarh. Be that as it may, the results have many pointers to indicate: the Hindutva factor minus better governance will not be able to deliver favourable electoral results for BJP; the discontents of farmers, youth, Tribals, Dalits, Minorities and other marginalised groups cannot easily be discounted; the Hindi heartland, an exclusive domain of BJP, has become competitive and open for both BJP and non-BJP alternatives; and, the role of civil society including interest groups and pressure groups in influencing the electoral verdicts through their mobilisation has increased.
On the other possible reasons for the defeat of the BJP in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, Alam said, “First, Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Vasundhara Raje Scindia were emerging as challenge and alternative to Amit Shah and Narendra Modi due to their winning streak and rising popularity within BJP and RSS. In this particular sense, we can argue that BJP may have been defeated but Amit Shah and Narendra Modi emerged victorious as their rivals lost their face. Second, the idea of umbrella Hindutva is fast losing its durability in Hindi heartland. It can be seen in the vote share of Shiv Sena and Hindu Maha Sabha in many constituencies of Madhya Pradesh largely responsible for the defeat of BJP. Third, the result establishes the pattern emerging from late 1990s politics in India: in the regions where Congress in power, there is a high probability of BJP replacing it and vice versa. Conversely, where regional parties are strong, both BJP and Congress lose their electoral credibility.
“The recent election results have indicated that 2019 Lok Sabha election is open. It is no more an exclusive win for BJP. The non-Congress and non-BJP front will have an equal chance to do better in the respective zones of their dominance. More importantly, the 2019 election will be a contest of electoral strategies than ideologies.”
Now, if the present election results trend continues, the situation is alarming for both the BJP and Congress. In the last Lok Sabha election, the BJP had managed to win 62 seats from the total 65 seats in these three states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. But if the trend continues till Lok Sabha elections, it is likely that the BJP may lose 30 seats. It is also believed that the party that performs the assembly elections in these states also may do better in the Lok Sabha polls. But remember, in politics, even a week’s time is more than enough to change the rules of the game and turn the tide for or against.
The Congress, however, has to keep in mind that it has lost Mizoram which was its last bastion in the North Eastern states. There are around 225 seats altogether in the Hindi heartland and it will decide the fate of 2019 polls. With unconditional support by the BSP and SP even after they were not accommodated by the Congress during seat sharing is most likely to make UP election in 2019 interesting to watch and likely to influence the overall outcome.
In the Hindi heartland, the BJP has to think afresh on its age-old anti-minority bashing, divisive agenda and especially cow politics because even the first cow minister Otaram Dewasi has lost its Sirohi seat in Rajasthan which speaks volumes of BJP’s scheme of things. Many believe that issues like employment, law and order situation, divisive politics, handling of democratic institutions, agrarian distress and overall rural distress and the BJP’s handling of Dalits, minorities and other marginalised people’s issues, demonetisation and GST harmed the BJP and the party was unable to overshadow these with polarisation.
Nusrat Ali, Vice President Jamaat-e-Islami Hind, on the message of the assembly election verdict, said it has many messages to convey. People never stick to one party or personality which they have proved in the last 70 years. People have shown that simple sloganeering is not enough; the issues of the people have to be addressed. The policy of the BJP government has created a lot of problems for the people, including minorities. The notion that there is no alternative to BJP and Modi has been proved wrong. Performance and governance is the message not only to the BJP but also to all those who have won assembly elections, including Telangana because in the next elections they would also be judged on the basis of their performance. The Congress, which has now gained strength and more popularity, will have to play a responsible role and treat regional parties and allies in a flexible manner like that in Karnataka because the assembly election verdict has paved the way for Mahagathbandhan.
Now the big question: Did the agrarian crisis and rural distress hurt the BJP more in these three states where the percentage of the rural population is sizeable in numbers. In Rajasthan, the share of the rural population is 75 per cent of the total. In Madhya Pradesh, it is 72 per cent and in Chhattisgarh, it is 77 per cent. Many political analysts believe that rural distress apart from others harmed the BJP in these three states.
The Congress, after making an impressive comeback, will be judged by its performance and delivery of promises made to the electorates in these three states. The victory has given a kind of much-required momentum which the Congress needed badly after many defeats. The party president Rahul Gandhi has now emerged as an alternate and he will now be more acceptable to Congressmen and even the other regional parties which would eventually pave the way for the formation of mahagathbandhan ahead of 2019 polls. The Congress government in these three states will have to remain on toes to fulfil the promises made in their manifesto and keep the flock of experienced and young and energetic Congressmen together as they did before elections. The biggest challenge for the Congress now would be to live upon the expectations and aspiration of the people in these three states.
However, the verdict has pushed BJP into the dilemma particularly on the issue of Hindutva and development and many political analysts believe that the BJP may now gamble on Ram Mandir issue or go for some big populist measure like the loan waiver or even raise the pitch of cross-border hyperbole ahead of 2019 polls.