With the Assembly elections to five states done, all the parties have started gearing up for the grand finale in 2024. Preparations include plans for seat-sharing, campaign tactics, and fund-raising. The 28-party opposition INDIA bloc, which previously won 145 seats, will be hoping that its combined strength can present a threat to the ruling BJP, which won 303 seats on its own and 329 seats as a member of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 2019 elections.
The INDIA bloc’s leading party, Congress has not yet started seat-sharing talks; it has started raising money with its “Donate for Desh” crowd-funding campaign, launched on December 18. On the party’s 138th foundation day, December 28, Congress formally launched its poll campaign by holding a ‘Hain Taiyaar Hum’ (We’re Ready) mega rally in Nagpur.
The BJP falls back on its favorite theme of the Hindu-Muslim divide as the grand Ram Temple in Ayodhya is set to be inaugurated on January 22. This event has seemingly been orchestrated to lay the groundwork and set the stage for general elections. The temple is constructed at the site where the historic Babri Masjid stood for over four centuries before it was demolished in the full presence of security forces on December 6, 1992.
The outcomes of five assembly elections make it abundantly evident that the secular democratic forces must step up their efforts to protect the right to democratic rights, and the secular democratic nature of Indian Republic.
The outcome of parliamentary elections is not always predictable, despite the fact that state elections can provide insight into the political climate. The political parties can use these elections to gauge how they want to position themselves for the big fight. For example, following the terror attack in Pulwama, Kashmir, the BJP opted to focus on national security and ran a comprehensive campaign on this narrative for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections after losing the elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.
Following the same pattern, in 2009, the BJP became triumphant in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. However, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by Congress, emerged victorious in the Lok Sabha elections conducted shortly after. Therefore, INDIA grouping can take heart from these patterns.
Addressing the Nagpur rally, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said although there are several parties in NDA and INDIA alliances, the battle is essentially between two ideologies, between ideas and power. Coming down heavily on the BJP-led government at the Centre, Gandhi said the saffron party is trying to take the country back to the age of slavery, unlike Congress, where even a junior or newly-inducted worker has the liberty to question top leaders.
“Today, the BJP has control over all the educational institutions. All the vice Chancellors belong to the same organization. There are no longer merit-based appointments,” he said. He also targeted the BJP for unemployment. The Congress leader also said the party will conduct a caste census once elected to power at the Centre.
Speaking at the rally, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge said democracy will be completely ruined if the “Sangh government” is allowed to rule the country.
“During the last 10 years, the BJP and RSS have disturbed the country. If this Sangh government is not stopped, the country will be ruined. There are two ideologies in Nagpur. One ideology is progressive, which belongs to Babasaheb Ambedkar. On the other side is the RSS, which is destroying the nation,” Kharge said.
Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole said, “It will be a historic moment for the people of the country.” He said the party will convey a message of change to defeat the BJP at the center.
Taking a cue from the Bharat Jodo Yatra’s positive impact, Rahul Gandhi planned another foot-march billed as the Bharat Nyay Yatra. He will embark on the 6,200-kilometer Nyay Yatra from Manipur on January 14. It will cover 85 districts in 14 states and conclude in Mumbai on March 20.
Replying to a question about choosing Manipur as the starting point, AICC general secretary KC Venugopal said the state was an important part of the country, and the party also wanted to begin the process of healing the wounds of the people of Manipur.
However, political analysts say Congress’s peddling of soft Hinduism has become its nemesis. It has been seen in nearly every state election that the Congress has a strong beginning but ultimately loses the race by adopting the BJP’s Hindutva line. Congress leaders still fail to see why voters who support the Hindutva line ought to support the copy when they have access to the original, they pointed out.
It advocates a caste census but lacks a prominent OBC representative in the national leadership. The recent changes in the party organization and bringing upper-caste leaders at the helm will not help in states like UP and Bihar.
Another issue is about resources. Considering the magnitude of the general elections, raising adequate money will be essential to running a successful campaign. However, the Association for Democratic Reforms’ data on party financing from 2018–19 to 2021–22 shows that the BJP’s financial strength has been increasing manifold, making it difficult for the INDIA bloc to compete. Cash for votes has evolved into a pernicious aspect of all elections, from local to national. The enormous influence that money power has on election outcomes is demonstrated by the hundreds of crores of rupees that the Election Commission seizes in each election. Moreover, the growing number of crorepatis participating in elections validates the influence of money power.
Apart from this, concerns over electronic voting machines (EVMs) are not addressed. Congress leader Sam Pitroda warned that the BJP can win more than 400 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections if issues associated with EVMs are not “fixed.” Opposition leaders, including from Congress, have been repeatedly raising the issue of EVMs allegedly being open to manipulation.
In an interview with a news agency, Pitroda cited a report by NGO ‘The Citizens’ Commission on Elections’, chaired by former Supreme Court judge Madan B Lokur, and said that the main recommendations of the report were to modify the current design of the VVPAT system to make it truly “voter-verified”. On which the election commission adopted a deafening silence.
On EVMs, the alliance also passed a resolution in its fourth meeting held in New Delhion December 19. In the meeting, West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC chief Mamata Banerjee and her Delhi counterpart and AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal pitched for projecting Dalit faces for the bloc’s prime ministerial candidate.