In the recently concluded assembly elections, Muslims have proved that by tactical voting they can easily help their choice candidates to win from minority concentration constituencies despite all odds. In Delhi they preferred this time to vote for Muslim candidates of Congress in Muslim concentration constituencies and in some constituencies AAP candidates as well. AAP failed to convince Muslims with greater clarity, otherwise all the Muslim votes could have fallen in the kitty of AAP. Nevertheless, AAP remained a second choice because of their transparency and equality which is the need of the hour for a country like India, which is still short of gaining the status of a developed country on the basis of human development index.
The verdict of the assembly polls has broaden the political ramifications, and horizons and many believe that foundation of political reform has been laid; but how far it will get translated across the political chessboard is yet to be seen and explored. It is by this very effect that the BJP even after getting 32 seats refused to form government in Delhi. The functional and practising democracy is where the government and the opposition are equally strong and decisive and holds the nerves of the people. Such an arrangement leaves little scope to play with peoples’ issues and aspirations as well as their constitutional and democratic rights.
Assembly elections in Delhi is the best example of how politicians out of greed or vent field Muslim candidates either to divide Muslim votes or to cut down a party’s votes so that Muslim votes do not get consolidated for any political party. Sometimes Muslims get trapped in that gameplan and sometimes they do tactical voting. In Delhi alone there were 108 Muslim candidates out of 810 in fray. In Okhla constituency there were 13 Muslim candidates out of total 18 contesting candidates. Notably, out of 108 Muslim candidates for 70 constituencies in Delhi only 5 candidates won, 4 from Congress and one from JD-U. Muslims are 11.2 per cent of Delhi’s 11.5 million voters. In view of the proportional representation at least 11 Muslim candidates should have won. In 2008 assembly elections in Delhi out of total 92 Muslim candidates in fray only 5 candidates had won. This time a sizeable number of Muslims in Delhi voted for AAP. This becomes evident from the fact that in the Okhla constituency the sitting MLA Mohammad Asif, who has won, got 50,004 votes and the runner up candidate Irfannullah Khan of AAP got 20,000 votes.
In Rajasthan, the percentage of Muslims is around 8.47 and in view of proportional representation they should get 30 seats but last year only 11 Muslim candidates had won. In 2013, Congress fielded 16 Muslim candidates as against 14 candidates in 2008. BJP gave 4 tickets to Muslim candidates in the last assembly elections and also in 2013. As a whole, in Rajasthan, there are 66 seats where the Muslim votes are in between 30,000 to 1,70,000. If we calculate on this basis then 66 Muslim candidates can easily win or Muslims can play a decisive role in these constituencies. Surprisingly, out of 16 candidates fielded by the Congress none of them won. BJP fielded four Muslim candidates and two of them won. Notably, out of 199 candidates only 2 Muslim candidates have won from Rajasthan. In the last assembly election, 9 Muslim candidates had won from Congress while two from the BJP. The possible reasons could well come out in the days to come as to what exactly led to such dismal performance of the Congress and those of Muslim candidates. Rajasthan is known for changing government after every five years but even though there are enough reasons for the Congress to introspect the fault lines and its approach towards Muslims and its other support base.
The assembly election in Madhya Pradesh was much on the predicted lines and it was almost a walk over by the Congress. Here, Muslims are more than 6 per cent and that too unevenly distributed and have nothing much to explore and experiment. In Madhya Pradesh, out of 230 seats only one Muslim candidate won. BJP gave one ticket to a Muslim candidate while Congress gave 5 tickets to Muslim candidates and out which one candidate won.
In Chhattisgarh, Muslims have got very thin presence and their percentage is 1.99 per cent. Here, Congress fielded two Muslim candidates and none of them could win while BJP gave no ticket to Muslim candidate. Out of 90 seats no Muslim candidate emerged victorious.
Of the total 6 candidates fielded by BJP in these assembly elections in five states only two of them won and that too from Rajasthan while Congress fielded 29 Muslim candidates and among them only 5 of them won, four from Delhi and one from Madhya Pradesh.
Compared to the 35 Muslim candidates put up by Congress and BJP in these assembly elections, there were 32 in 2008, 27 from the Congress and five from the BJP.
In Mizoram, Muslims are 1.1 per cent of the state population but neither Congress nor BJP fielded any Muslim candidate in 2008 and in 2013 assembly elections. The verdict of Mizoram was a face saver for Congress as the party won 33 seats out of 40 which gave them the opportunity to put a brave face that there is no anti-Congress wave in the entire country.
Delhi verdict has put all the parties to be upright on toes and adopt an altogether different kind of strategy, keeping in view the emergence of AAP on the political scene. The assembly results, particularly of Delhi have set the tone of the coming Lok Sabha polls. The jubilant and confident AAP leaders and supporters are now ready to explore and experiment their line of thought in the general elections. The verdict of assembly elections gives message for Congress in multiple ways and if the party failed to read it between the lines then general elections will be simply a walk over. Mani Shankar Aiyar in an interview has already expressed that the party needed time in opposition to reinvent itself.
Not only Congress but BJP too is worried after people’s verdict in Delhi. The BJP has now realised the damage that can be done to the party by AAP candidates in many constituencies. AAP is most likely to harm the BJP at least in metro cities and in urban areas. Youth and women are most likely to back APP candidates in these areas.
Maulana Syed Jalaluddin Omari, Ameer Jamaat-e-Islami Hind on the verdict of assembly elections has said that the dismal performance of Congress and other secular parties was because of non-performance and for taking minorities for granted. He has hailed the emergence of AAP as ‘a good sign’ for the country and a lesson for other political parties. Omari also expressed hope that in the three states where the BJP has won, the party would respect the Constitution in letter and spirit and safeguard the rights of the minorities as enshrined in the Constitution. Dr Waquar Anwar, secretary BIP told Radiance that the verdict in Delhi resembles that of a mature democracy.
The big question: Will the Lok Sabha polls be different for the Muslims as well? The political scenario is changing fast. In 1980 Lok Sabha polls 49 Muslim candidates won which is the highest ever. In 2009, the number of Muslim candidates won was 30.
In 42 parliamentary constituencies the percentage of Muslims is between 30 per cent and 95 per cent. In another 145 constituencies the percentage of Muslims is between 10 and 20 per cent. In 38 constituencies there are 20 to 30 per cent Muslims and there are 5 to 10 per cent Muslims in 183 constituencies. So if we analyses all these places with sizeable Muslim presence then there is no doubt that Muslims can play a decisive role which is more than enough to change the fate of a political party. But which party will get the most of it is yet to be seen.