Perhaps never in the last so many decades the Dalit politics has been in such a disarray as now. In two days, two important Dalit parties of north India, Lok Janshakti Party in Bihar and Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh, faced serious crisis.
All these developments have taken place when Punjab and Uttar Pradesh go to poll seven months later. The names of these two states are significant in this regard as Punjab, with 31.9 has the highest percentage of Scheduled Castes votes while in Uttar Pradesh, where 21.3 per cent of the population is Dalit, numerically their concentration is strongest in India.
If on June 14, five of the six MPs of Lok Janshakti Party rebelled against the party chief Chirag Paswan, a day later nine expelled MLAs of the Bahujan Samaj Party called on the Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Singh Yadav.
Though not all these MPs and MLAs are from Scheduled Castes, BSP and LJP were certainly formed in the name of Dalit politics.
These developments can be read in the backdrop of recently held Assembly election in West Bengal in which Matuas, a Scheduled Caste, ended up overwhelmingly voting for the BJP, though the saffron party got sound thrashing.
Besides, the development in LJP has much to do with the likely expansion of the Narendra Modi cabinet. A pliable Pashupati Kumar Paras suits both the Bharatiya Janata Party and Janata Dal-United, as nephew Chirag Paswan had considerably damaged the poll prospect of both these parties during the last year’s Assembly election in Bihar. It needs to be mentioned that the lone LJP minister in the Union cabinet, Ram Vilas Paswan, had died on October 8 just before the Assembly poll.
The problem with Dalit leadership is that their outfits are not as equipped and empowered to launch agitational politics and have to rely on electoral politics. As their voters generally hail from socially, economically and educationally weaker sections of the society, they lack the wherewithal and resources to take part in any prolong battle. So be it Mayawati or Ram Vilas Paswan or anyone else, they would hardly take to streets to lead their supporters to protest against the atrocities, harassment or even killings of Dalits. They know that if some of them are booked or thrown into jail, they would not be able to even get bail easily. Why talk about taking part in any agitation, in post-prohibition Bihar thousands of Dalits are rotting in jails while other caste-men involved in illegal liquor business are, one way or the other, managing to get bail.
Even the Dalits who formed the rank and file of Naxal movements, which was generally led by non-Dalit leaders, had to suffer much more than other caste men.
So, both Mayawati and Ram Vilas or even Ramdas Athawale, the Union minister and Republican Party leader, who hails from Maharashtra, always prefer to go for politically correct alliance at the right time.
So, if BSP had recently joined hands with the Akali Dal in Punjab, Mayawati can no doubt go in alliance with the BJP in Uttar Pradesh in the coming election as she has never chosen the path of confrontational politics. After all she had last year preferred to support the BJP candidates over the Samajwadi Party’s in the Legislative Council election in UP. The only problem with her in UP is that what will she get in return if she joins hands with the BJP which will definitely go with Yogi as the CM face. This is so notwithstanding the fact that in 2019 Lok Sabha poll the BSP fought in alliance with the SP and they both won 10 and five seats respectively.
In Bihar, Pashupati Kumar Paras, inherently a low-profile meek personality, too adopted the same strategy of adjustment. And he may soon be rewarded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a ministerial berth.
That is why the Dalit parties are more known for changing loyalties than other parties – though it is true that the track record of the latter too is not very good.
Chirag tried to be somewhat enterprising but he ended up antagonising both the Janata Dal-United and BJP at the same time during Bihar Assembly poll. He could not succeed in his endeavour.
Though five of his MPs have deserted him, not everything is lost as his father’s legacy appears to be intact. His old uncle and the new president of one of the factions of LJP, Paras neither has the quality nor energy to revive the party. The new working president of the Paras faction of the LJP, Surajbhan Singh, a Bhumihar strongman, and his MP brother Chandan Singh cannot lead a party founded in the name of Dalits nor can Veena Singh, another MP, who comes from Rajput caste. The fourth MP of the party is Chaudhary Mehboob Ali Qaisar, former president of the Bihar Congress.
Incidentally, his son Yusuf, won the last year’s Assembly poll on RJD ticket. Qaisar deserted Congress on the eve of 2014 Lok Sabha poll and got the LJP ticket and was elected MP from Khagaria. But before the 2019 Lok Sabha poll he once again gave enough signal to return to the Congress fold. He was reportedly active in Congress when it’s the then president Rahul Gandhi visited Patna on February 3, 2019. But post-(Feb 14) Pulwama development suddenly he changed his mind once again and remained in the LJP which once again gave him ticket. He won again. As his late father Chaudhary Salahuddin was a senior Congress minister in Bihar and his brother too was in RJD his loyalty towards the LJP is still suspected.
So, the only other Dalit leader to lead the party is Prince Raj, the son of Ram Chandra Paswan, the youngest brother of Ram Vilas Paswan, who died after getting elected in 2019. Prince, a political greenhorn, won the by-poll.
In that way the future of the LJP appears to be more secure in the hands of Chirag, who in the last week of February 2014 compelled his father to jump off the sinking ship of UPA and climb on the Narendra Modi bandwagon. That appeared to be a politically correct decision for which not only Ram Vilas, but his two brothers were thankful to Chirag.
As Chirag tasted power for the first time without struggle, but by sheer tactical move, it is a testing time for him in the changed situation.
Whether he is ready to hit the roads and his hardcore supporters, especially Paswans or Dussadhs are ready for struggle or not, only time can tell.
On its part the BJP would like to keep the Dalit vote-bank confused and leaderless as well as rudderless. So, from West Bengal to Punjab one can say that the Dalits have no towering and experienced leader left. Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan of Bhim Army is trying to emerge in West UP but it would be too early to predict anything about him.