The globe is once again in the grip of a corona pandemic. For some countries, it is the third wave and for many, it is still the second. At the time of writing, some numbers related to the Covid 19 virus that are available in the public domain are jotted as under to get some perspective regarding Pune (City plus District) once again emerging as the Corona hotspot of India.
| INDIA | MAHARASHTRA | PUNE | |
| TOTAL CASES | 13.1 million | 3.2 million | 0.62 million |
| RECOVERED | 11.9 million | 2.65 million | 0.51 million |
| ACTIVE CASES | 9 lakhs | 5.2 lakhs | More than 1 lakh |
| DEATHS | 168 K | 57 K | 8.5 K |
It is indeed apparently quite perplexing as to why just one city and district – Pune is carrying almost 10% of the entire caseload of the entire country. This is a repetition of what happened in 2020 but this time far graver. Hospitals are overflowing, there is a shortage of ventilator beds, people are struggling to obtain plasma for their kith and kin and the various forms and iterations of lockdowns are disrupting normal life and keeping Pune on the edge.
WHY PUNE?
One thing to note is that Pune has been reporting between 20 to 25% of all cases reported in Maharashtra since September last year. Even today, it is having more cases than Mumbai even though its population is about a fourth of Mumbai. An important metric to gauge the spread of the virus is the ‘positivity rate’. To calculate, we divide the number of people who have tested positive by the number of people who were tested. According to the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC), the weekly positivity rate in Pune has been going up for the last six weeks. Between February and April 2021, it has surged from 9.2% to almost 25%. PMC says that almost 20,000 tests are being carried out daily. This means an approximate daily caseload of 5000 plus. However, the past few days have seen a big upsurge in the daily count with a consequent impact on those seeking medical care and hospitalisation. That spurt has sometimes exceeded 10,000 cases in 24 hours.
It is difficult to pinpoint why Pune. Some hypotheses are floating around. One – the weather. In February, it is understood that there was a fall in the minimum temperature by 5 to 7 degrees Celsius. This drop was more significant in Pune compared to other parts of Maharashtra. The cooler climate was supposed to have provided a favourable environment for the virus to thrive and spread quickly.
Another hypothesis doing the rounds to explain the extraordinary surge in Pune is the lack of social distancing. Although the authorities and police enforced the wearing of masks in public by way of fining the public for violations, the people developed strong fatigue and sometimes antagonism towards following the stated norms of physical distancing when there was no fear of being watched or penalised. A case in point was the recently conducted gram panchayat elections conducted in 14,000 villages across Maharashtra.
Throwing Covid-appropriate behaviour to the winds was also seen in umpteen marriages taking place in the last few months, which is a traditional marriage season. But all this still does not explain why only Pune, as these conditions and social behaviour was similar in almost all the cities and towns of India.
One explanation gathered from the research literature is that Pune “has a hot semi-arid or steppe climate with an average temperature between 20 to 28 degrees Celsius”. This peculiar climatic condition of Pune has made the population more susceptible to viruses. That is the reason; Pune has always been impacted more than other cities when it comes to Influenza A H1N1 pandemic and Swine flu.
THE CURIOUS CASE OF CORONA-FREE VILLAGES FROM PUNE
There is another twist to the Pune-Covid story. It has been reported in the media that 229 villages in Pune have not reported a single case of Covid-19 since its outbreak. According to Pune Zilla Parishad (ZP) chief executive officer (CEO) Ayush Prasad, “These villages do have people who travel to the city or town area for trade and work purposes. However, the containment measures are so successful in these villages that they have been able to keep the virus at bay for over a year now. Covid-appropriate behaviour has been considered a social practice and so even though there are no cases, people are penalised for not wearing masks and anyone travelling to the city for any work is quarantined upon their return.
“In some of these villages, while there have been cases in nearby villages, they have remained untouched. We also have 200-odd villages that have reported single-digit Covid-19 cases. These positives are also of those who were migrants and there was no local transmission in these 200 villages.” (as updated by news18.com April 10) If we draw any inferences based on the story of these corona-free villages, it would suggest that the key to higher positivity is only a lax attitude to Covid-appropriate behaviour.
THE MORAL DIMENSION
It is customary to analyse a situation scientifically and look at issues through the narrow prism of sensory data and visible facts. However, sometimes a little moral insight and looking at the macro picture helps one to arrive at more nuanced conclusions and meaningful inferences.
It is narrated In Sahih al Bukhari (Hadith 3474, Book 60 Number 141) by Aisha: “I asked Allah’s Messenger ﷺ about the plague. He told me that it was a punishment sent by Allah on whom He wished. And Allah made it a source of mercy for the believers; for if one in the time of an epidemic plague stays in his country patiently hoping for Allah’s reward and believing that nothing will befall him except what Allah has written for him, he will get the reward of a martyr.”
Thus it is quite well established that there is an element of punishment in the pandemic and in the words of a scholar – “The pandemic is a subtle warning signal from our Creator to mend our ways and observe both moral limits and the boundaries set for utilisation of natural resources.” Pune must save itself from the destructive power of the virus by the prudent practice of health guidelines and getting its act together regarding its medical infrastructure. What is however even more pertinent is restoring its moral compass. Trying to confront the virus without deciphering the hidden signals of the pandemic exhorting us for a holistic introspection of our lives shall be analogous to chasing a mirage, which will turn out to be an exercise in futility.