Saddened Akali Dal Vows to Go Shiv Sena Way

Contrary to the rest of India, Punjab is the one state where the Bharatiya Janata Party has witnessed decline ever since Narendra Modi came to power on May 26, 2014. Tamil Nadu may be the other state where the BJP, along with AIADMK, performed badly in 2019 Lok Sabha election – the alliance only won one seat – but here the case is somewhat different as the saffron brigade had no history of being an influential party.
In contrast, in Punjab it has been sharing power with the Shiromani Akali Dal ever since the pre-1980 Bharatiya Jan Sangh days. Just one example is enough to measure the weakening of the BJP in this north Indian state. In 2007 Assembly poll it alone won 19 seats; in 2017 it managed to win just three seats while its partner SAD got 15. The newly formed Aam Admi Party bagged 20.
After the last Lok Sabha poll, the relationship between the two partners deteriorated so much that on September 26 the SAD did not hesitate to snap its ties with the National Democratic Alliance, though along with the BJP, Shiv Sena and Janata Dal United it was its oldest constituent. The SAD decided to off-load the BJP as it started considering the latter as a burden.
Curiously, many BJP leaders and workers too wanted to distance itself and go alone as they were not appreciative of some of the stands of the SAD.
The ruling Congress party, which has 77 MLAs in the House of 117, is till now comfortably placed as farmers’ anger is directed more against the Centre, which recently enacted three farm laws.
In 2012 the SAD won 56 and BJP 12 seats against Congress 46. If Akali Dal always champions the cause of Sikhs, who form 57.7 per cent of the state population, the BJP is always expected to get the votes of Hindus, who form about 38.5 per cent. On the other hand, the Congress, as a secular party, has always been getting the votes of all sections of the society. But in the recent years the BJP support base among the Hindus has shrunk. The Congress had in 2017 walked away with a good majority of Hindu votes, not to speak of Sikhs’ as well. Even the AAP made big inroads though it made entry in the state Assembly election for the first time.
The decline of SAD-BJP alliance continued in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, though it was contested after the Balakot strike in Pakistan. The nationalistic passion whipped up elsewhere in the country could not work much here.
The Congress won eight seats, against two each by SAD and BJP and one by AAP, which had entered the 2014 Lok Sabha poll with a bang winning four seats.
So, when the Akalis decided to dissociate themselves from BJP on September 26 on the plea that it was not taken into confidence while the three Farm Laws were enacted, they were just waiting for an excuse. It is not only that the farmers of Punjab, largely Sikhs, were upset over the new laws, the community in particular is wary over the strong pro-Hindutva line adopted by the Narendra Modi government. The Sikhs were not happy in the manner in which Article 370 was abolished and Jammu and Kashmir bifurcated. There are a large number of Sikhs who are in favour of more autonomy for Punjab. So naturally they did not like the development in Jammu and Kashmir.
Similarly, Sikhs also took part in street protests in Punjab and even in Delhi’s Shaheen Bagh to register their opposition to CAA-cum-NRC.
Though the Akalis supported the CAA in Parliament, it demanded that Muslims be included in the list of communities – there are six in number – which should get citizenship. The Akali Dal also had expressed its displeasure over the February Delhi communal riots. The Sikhs of Delhi were in the forefront in the post-riots relief and rehabilitation works.
Initially the SAD made flip-flop over the three Farm Laws but on September 17, the birthday of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, its lone cabinet minister, Harsimrat Kaur Badal, daughter-in-law of former chief minister Prakash Singh Badal, resigned. In the beginning it was thought that soon the SAD and BJP would make a patch-up as the Assembly election is due within 18 months from now. But the Akalis were in no mood to budge as the sentiment of farmers was very much against the Centre’s new legislation. As the Akalis want to exploit the situation created after the enactment of farm laws to bounce back by the early 2022 Assembly election, the BJP is struggling to gain ground.
Though the SAD had deserted the NDA just before the Assembly poll in Bihar, apparently it may not have much impact in this eastern election-bound state. But it has certainly sent a wrong message as the SAD decision follows a similar move by Shiv Sena – an ideologically close ally of the BJP – in Maharashtra 11 months back. Before that, the Telugu Desam Party too had bid adieu to the NDA, but that was before the last Lok Sabha poll.
If in Bihar the BJP is content with playing second fiddle, in Maharashtra, where it is stronger than Punjab, it is trying to expand its base among the outsiders. If Shiv Sena, and to some extent the Nationalist Congress Party, tend to cultivate Maharashtrian votes the BJP is trying to further consolidate its position among the Gujaratis and North Indians. The whole Sushant Singh Rajput and Kangana Ranaut episode is being seen in this background.