RIFAT JAWAID is the Founder Editor of Janta Ka Reporter and the only journalist in the world to have received Olympic Gold Medal for reporting in four different languages at one time for the BBC. He was editor of BBC in London for 12 years and in Global News Division he provided editorial leadership for about 400 journalists working in around 15 countries such as Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East. With India Today group, he worked as Managing Editor-input for the group’s four TV channels and also worked with Rediff.com and The Statesman as their eastern India correspondent and feature writer. In an interview with MOHAMMAD NAUSHAD KHAN on the ongoing UP elections, he said it has been the hallmark of the BJP: when they face against the wall, what they do is they invoke the religion. They did the same thing in Bihar and they are doing it once again in UP.
What kind of political sense are you getting from the campaign trail in UP?
UP has been the very complicated state to cover. Unlike in the past, this time there is no clear trend emerging. After the first two phases, you could say there was a sentiment in favour of SP and Congress. There was visible anger against the BJP purely because in the first phase you had the western UP belt which is predominantly Jat and Muslim combination. Jats were very angry with the BJP because they felt they were let down by the Saffron party even after they supported en masse in 2014 general elections. And also there was the second factor; that the Jats felt they have somehow lost their importance in the national politics which they had under Mahendra Singh Tikait who had led the Jat and Kisan movement. Then the responsibility fell on Ajit Singh and his significance in the national politics was diminishing. So the Jats felt compelled to reassert their dominance and therefore they decided this time to teach a lesson to the BJP.
As for Muslim vote, I gathered a sense that Muslims were not voting in favour of one bloc or another but they were very tactical. For example, in Sardhana, which is Sangeet Som’s seat, Muslims voted en masse in favour of BSP because they felt BSP had the better chance to defeat the BJP candidate Sangeet Som. And the same trend I saw in the second phase. One may think that a seat like Rampur is a safe seat for SP leader Azam Khan but this time I thought it was not the same because Tanveer Khan has equally good chance to defeat him. I won’t be surprised if Azam Khan loses. Likewise, go further to Suar, where Azam Khan’s son Abdullah is making a debut. This used to be the safe seat of Kazim Ali Khan, son of Noor Bano, traditional Congress people, but this time contesting on BSP ticket. But there is a wave in favour of Azam’s son Abdullah. In Sambhal which is 65 per cent Muslim seats, Iqbal Mahmood is three times MLA and also a cabinet minister in the Akhilesh government. But I don’t see it to be a safe seat for him. He might lose to MIM and the Owaisi party can make a debut in UP politics through this seat.
Over all, the trend was: A. Muslims were voting tactically. B. There was anger against the BJP. The moment I went to cover the third phase the entire arithmetic got changed. Suddenly we saw a lot of support for the BJP particularly among the youths in urban areas. These are the people who hated demonetisation but not Modi. These are the people who enjoyed the freebies from the Akhilesh government. Their identity of BJP is only Modi. In the third phase, BJP got huge support. In the third phase, there was also a great support to Mayawati and this phase disturbed all the earlier equation. So what I believe is that there is no clear-cut trend emerging and it could be anybody’s game. I also believe that there is least possibility that any party will get absolute majority. This is based on my assessment of three phases. There are four more to go and anything can change.
Is the political arithmetic between SP and Congress reflecting on the ground as desired? And, do you think they would be able to transfer their votes to each other the way Nitish and Lalu did in Bihar?
No. I will tell you even in the first two phases people who wanted to vote for the alliance not because they thought the alliance is a good thing but they voted for the candidate who is good for their area. It is not just because of the alliance. People are voting on the issue of development. They are voting for a powerful candidate. Forget about the advantage, in the third phase there was lots of confusion because the alliance was itself creating a lot of confusion among the voters. When I was in Lucknow Central seat despite having alliance Congress and SP candidates were contesting against each other. There are at least 12 seats where they are fighting against each other. The notable one is Amethi seat.
So after the second phase and before the third phase BSP chief made it clear that her party will not have a post-poll alliance and we all know what she was trying to convey. Do you think a firm message like this from the BSP before elections could have helped the BSP garner more Muslim votes?
When you see the division of votes among the alliance and the BJP, you can see BSP could be the dark horse. The advantage with the BSP is that she has kept her Dalit votes intact. So after then it would be foolish for us to discount Mayawati. Even Mayawati could emerge as the dark horse because she needs only 10 to 15 per cent of Muslim votes. Along with that if she gets some upper caste votes her prospect would be very bright.
Are you satisfied with the role of Election Commission?
For the first time in the history of Independent India, you have an Election Commission which has become absolutely toothless and surrendered before the Central government. I am very disappointed with the Chief Election Commissioner, Naseem Zaidi who had an opportunity to become another TN Sheshan. There is a Supreme Court ruling which says you cannot seek votes in the name of religion, forget about the Election Commission guidelines. There is nothing bigger than the Supreme Court. Very recently just before the code of conduct took place Supreme Court clearly said that.
Prime Minister and Amit Shah have time and again during the campaign made a mockery of the Supreme Court ruling and there is no action. There is very weak opposition, for they too have failed to mount an attack on this issue demanding action against the party by the Election Commission. The dangerous thing is that if polarisation happens, you know who is going to benefit. Stakes are very high for the BJP in UP. Poor performance will severely dent the leadership of Prime Minister Modi within his own party. If they are able to win, it will help them get a majority in the Rajya Sabha. And if they get that, God save the country because they can pass any law with impunity.
The seven-phase election has actually helped them and there was no need of so many phases because it would help them manipulate the process. Seven phases across India I can understand but for UP seven phases is too much. I don’t understand the logic behind it. What is going to happen with the EVM in this one month long period? Who is going to ensure that here would not be tampering with the EVMs in these periods? These are valid apprehension one may have in mind as right-minded citizens. When stakes are so high and practices are so corrupt, it’s obvious that people would have doubt.
Do you think the political language in the state is different from that of 2014 polls?
Of course, it is different. I have said it time and again and from day one that Modi is no messiah of development; he is out and out a communal guy. We had said that when I was heading a channel and we did half an hour programme on it. He wanted entire India to believe the reason behind he chose Varanasi that he was looking at the Poorvanchal region. It was a political decision. I had always said that it was a communal decision because there is a significance of Varanasi because Sabarmati Express that was burnt in Godhra passes through Varanasi. There was a communal symbol to that. There are many examples to say that he is not a champion of development.
In 2014 he was able to sell the idea of development and Gujarat Model but nobody enquired what actually Gujarat Model was. I can say that Lucknow is far more developed than most of the state’s capital even Mumbai and Delhi and even London. I have stayed in London for 13 years; even in London you would not have 8-lane roads. The modern Lucknow is like that. There is amazing river front and two expressways; they are modern along the line of the UK. The reason why Modi was able to sell his kind of development is because people believed it. And when media is in your pocket, there is no one to play devil’s advocate. Now after two years and a half, he has been found out. It has been the traditional hallmark of the BJP: when they face against the wall, what they do is they invoke the religion. They did the same thing in Bihar and they are doing it now in UP.
We need to understand why the narrative has got changed because he does not have anything to sell to the people in the last two years and a half. It was despicable for a prime minister to talk of Kabrastan and Shamshan. Despicable in a sense, first it was a breach of Supreme Court guidelines and secondly he was telling lies. I have found out that the Akhilesh government has allocated Rs 100 crore for antusthithaan which means both kabrastan, shamshan and other burial ground. Facts are also available that power supply was more during Diwali, i.e. 15400 MW as compared to 13500MW during Eid. This is another lie.
What according to you could be the likely impact of UP polls on our national polity?
If BJP wins then it’s a game changer. Modi government is already accused of being very arrogant so much so that it does not care about institution and media. The government has already rejected the names of a large number of judges cleared by the collegium. Many say that the government is also trying to influence the judiciary. When two of the four pillars of democracy are compromised then what is the future of India. It will be completely suffocated. What happened in JNU is just tip of the iceberg. Just imagine without having the numbers in Rajya Sabha they have been able to do what they want; can you imagine what they could do after having the numbers in the Rajya Sabha.
Now imagine if BJP loses then it’s bad news for the BJP because in Punjab they are not completely in the race. Goa also is not going in their favour. In Uttarakhand also it is not very much clear. If they lose, it will have a question mark on the performance of prime minister and his leadership within the party. After Bihar election, there was serious rebellion in the party and many leaders went public and wanted accountability to be fixed. And this time the rebellion would be even bigger. We have also got information that the rebel BJP candidates have fielded their candidates and are determined to cause defeat to the BJP.