After a heated exchange between the BJP and Tamil Nadu over the imposition of Hindi, a fresh political storm is brewing in southern states. The controversy revolves around the upcoming delimitation exercise, a process that could significantly alter political representation in Parliament, potentially to the detriment of southern states.
Several political parties in the South have raised strong objections to the BJP-led Union government’s delimitation plans, arguing that the exercise will disproportionately benefit populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh. Since parliamentary and assembly seats are determined based on population, the concern is that a redistribution will further centralise political influence in the North, leaving the South with diminished policy influence.
To counteract the anticipated imbalance, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin has taken the lead in forming a coalition of affected states. He has reached out to both current and former chief ministers, advocating for the creation of a Joint Action Committee (JAC) to strategize a response. Stalin contends that the Union government has neither provided clarity nor made any concrete commitments to address the South’s concerns.
His proposal extends beyond the southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, seeking to include Odisha, Punjab, and West Bengal. As a first step, he has suggested an inaugural conference in Chennai on March 22 to chart a collective course of action.
In his letter to regional leaders, Stalin underscored the gravity of the issue, stating:
“This issue transcends individual state concerns – it strikes at the heart of our federal principles. Together, we must examine the constitutional, legal, and political dimensions of this challenge and jointly develop alternatives that preserve our current representation in percentage terms.”
He further emphasised that this was not just about principles but about securing resources, influencing national policies, and ensuring that economic priorities of the South receive due attention.
On March 5, Stalin presided over an all-party meeting in Chennai, which resolved that the Lok Sabha and state assembly constituencies should remain frozen for another 30 years beyond 2026. The resolution insisted that Tamil Nadu’s current 7.18% share of Lok Sabha seats should not be reduced under any circumstances.
The 84th Amendment to the Constitution had frozen constituency boundaries in 2001 until the first census after 2026. However, given that the 2021 Census has not yet been conducted, the timeline for delimitation remains uncertain.
To further the movement, the Chennai meeting also approved the formation of a JAC to build support across southern states.
A study by Milan Vaishnav and Jamie Hintson in March 2019, using projected 2026 population data, highlights the potential consequences of the delimitation exercise. Their analysis suggests significant losses for the South:
- States expected to lose seats: Tamil Nadu (8), Kerala (8), Andhra Pradesh and Telangana (8), Odisha (3), West Bengal (4), Karnataka (2), Himachal Pradesh (1), Punjab (1), Uttarakhand (1).
- States that remain unchanged: Assam, Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra.
- States expected to gain seats: Uttar Pradesh (11), Bihar (10), Rajasthan (6), Madhya Pradesh (4), Jharkhand (1), Haryana (1), Gujarat (1), Delhi (1), and Chhattisgarh (1).
If the total number of Lok Sabha seats is set at 530+13 (as projected) and reallocation occurs under Articles 81 and 82, the collective representation of the five southern states could drop from 129 to 103 seats. Currently, the South holds 129 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats, which many already consider insufficient. A further reduction would drastically reduce their voice in national decision-making.
India has undertaken four delimitation exercises since its independence: in 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002. The last significant increase in Lok Sabha seats occurred in 1973, when the number was raised to 545. However, the 2002 exercise only redrew constituency boundaries without altering seat allocations.
During the 1973 exercise, no state lost seats, but several states gained. Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh remained at 39 and 85 seats, respectively. At the time, the redistribution acknowledged national goals of population control, rewarding states that had managed their growth effectively.
Today, the concern is that southern states are being penalised for their early success in controlling population growth, while northern states, which continue to grow at a faster rate, stand to gain disproportionately from the new seat distribution.
Beyond the delimitation debate, another controversy is brewing in the South – the imposition of a three-language formula under the new education policy.DMK spokesperson Saravanan Annadurai accused the BJP of using the language policy to marginalise Tamil Nadu students:
“There is a sinister agenda behind this. They want to filter out Tamil Nadu students from the education system. The RSS doesn’t want the masses to be educated; they want them to be trained in vocational courses. Please consign this third-language policy to the dustbin.”
Echoing similar concerns, Telangana Congress leader V Hanumantha Rao criticised the BJP-led government, calling both the delimitation exercise and the language policy an injustice to South India. He urged political parties to unite in resisting these measures.
Given the contentious history of delimitation, the Union government faces a critical challenge in ensuring a fair and equitable process. Transparency and inclusivity will be key to avoiding a deepening of regional divides.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah attempted to allay fears, stating that southern states would not lose a single parliamentary seat in the event of a delimitation exercise. However, his remarks failed to reassure regional leaders. Former Union Minister P Chidambaram dismissed the promise as hollow, pointing out that there was no guarantee that seats in the most populous states – Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh – would not increase.
Punjab Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi party leader Bhagwant Mann also charged that the Union government was attempting to crush its political rivals with this faulty exercise. Mann accused the BJP of strategically reducing seats in states where the BJP and its partners are weak while strategically increasing seats in states where the BJP’s divisive agenda is flourishing, raising doubts about the party’s intentions. Furthermore, he backed Stalin’s appeal for like-minded parties to band together in opposition to the Union government’s repression, which was intended to stifle democracy.
As delimitation remains a looming reality, Congress MP and general secretary Jairam Ramesh has also voiced concerns, arguing that states with early success in family planning should not be penalised.
The battle over representation is far from over, and as the 2026 deadline approaches, tensions are only expected to escalate. The South’s demand for fair representation is not just about numbers but about ensuring that progressive states are not sidelined in national decision-making. With Stalin leading the charge, the coming months will determine whether the South can influence the final delimitation framework or face an irreversible shift in India’s political balance.