Sudan, on December 9, formally requested an emergency meeting of the Arab League to address what it termed as “interventions in Sudanese affairs.” Information Minister Khalid Aleisir, speaking after discussions with Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed AboulGheit, highlighted the urgency of the matter, stating that Sudan seeks to “neutralise interventions in Sudanese affairs” under the League’s umbrella.
“We rely on the Arab League to play a significant role in the coming period, especially since many regional and international organisations have turned their backs on us during this crisis,”Aleisir remarked, signalling frustration with other bodies like the African Union, which suspended Sudan’s membership in 2021.
The Sudanese Information Minister further reiterated Sudan’s steadfast stance with three key points: “No to interference in Sudanese affairs, no to aggression against the people and no to state fragmentation.”
Who are the regional and international players fuelling the conflict and why is Sudan beset with foreign interference? Can the Arab League play a positive role in resolving the crisis in Sudan and what are the possible pathways to peace?
Dire situation
The current conflict in Sudan has transformed into a severe humanitarian crisis. In a country of around 50 million people, it has taken the lives of more than 24,000 people and an estimated 11 million people (approximately 2.1 million families) are now internally displaced within Sudan and many others fleeing to neighboring countries.
About 25.6 million people, which is over half of Sudan’s population, are facing acute hunger. This includes more than 755,000 people who are on the brink of famine. 19 million school-aged children are at risk of losing their education due to the conflict, as many schools remain shuttered or struggle to reopen.
Nature of Foreign Interference
Sudan’s strategic location, bridging the Sahel (semi-arid region in Africa that stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea), the Horn of Africa (region in eastern Africa that includes the countries of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia), and the Red Sea, has attracted regional and global powers seeking influence in the country’s affairs. Competing interests among these players have escalated Sudan’s internal divisions. Russia has pursued the establishment of a naval base along Sudan’s Red Sea coastline, aiming to secure a foothold in the Horn of Africa and expand its military presence.
The Gulf Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have targeted Sudan’s fertile lands and coastal infrastructure for agricultural investments and port development, enhancing their own trade and food security initiatives.
The United States has focused on promoting a civilian-led government to counterbalance the influence of other powers.
Each player has bank-rolled and backed factions that hold the key to power in the Sudan. For example, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have aligned themselves with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to secure shared interests in regional stability and the management of Nile River water resources.
On the other hand, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), headed by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), have received support from the UAE, the Russian paramilitary group Wagner, and various local militias and tribal factions. This external support by foreign powers has intensified the rivalry between SAF and RSF, which began as a partnership following their joint overthrow of Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Initially allies, their mutual distrust and competing ambitions derailed efforts to integrate the RSF into the SAF and transition to civilian rule. The breakdown of negotiations culminated in violent clashes, plunging Sudan deeper into conflict.
Can the Arab League rescue Sudan?
Undoubtedly, the Arab League has been actively engaging in efforts to mediate in the escalating crisis in Sudan. However, it has been largely unsuccessful in preventing the conflict from deepening into a prolonged civil war. Since the outbreak of hostilities between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April 2023, the pan-Arab body has convened multiple emergency meetings and initiated diplomatic dialogues to explore solutions to the crisis. These efforts were reignited in August 2024, when top diplomats gathered in Cairo for the third emergency meeting in three weeks, aiming to support Sudanese dialogue and halt the bloodshed.
During the August meeting, it was emphasised that the Arab League’s primary objective was to stop the violence, protect civilian livelihoods, and prevent Sudan from becoming reliant solely on humanitarian aid. It was reiterated that all efforts should be exerted to preserve Sudan’s territorial integrity. Despite these efforts, the Arab League could not achieve its stated goals. Ceasefire agreements brokered by Saudi Arabia and the US repeatedly failed, and violence continues to escalate.
Not an encouraging situation
Speaking to Al Jazeera, KholoodKhair, Founding Director of the Sudanese think tank Confluence Advisory and a prominent civil society advocate for Sudan, summed up the dire situation in Sudan, saying, “When the war started out, there was a very deep belief in both camps (RSF and SAF) that they could really take this war and win. Right now, both sides believe they have to win. The level of crimes committed by either side, particularly the RSF, the complications around the overspill into regional countries, and the interests of their patrons or proxies in the Middle East and the Gulf; all of that means they feel they must secure a win to play politics moving forward. Certainly, Sudanese history tells us that no side, whether government-aligned, rebel, or paramilitary – has ever taken a full military victory in Sudan. But I think they (the forces battling it out) are so stuck in this mindset that they must win to secure their futures that they are not considering any other eventuality.
“Obviously, political talks have room here because even if a military victory were to be secured by either side, which is very unlikely, you need a political settlement to create something post-war. What that looks like has not been fully articulated by the SAF, the RSF, their civilian supporters, or their regional supporters.
“Currently, there is a lack of full investment in a civilian political process or any kind of political outcome because everyone in the international community has been so laser-focused on a military ceasefire. A rethink is urgently needed to address the political and military environment in Sudan right now.”
Thus, the road to peace in Sudan is arduous, but only urgent action now can mitigate suffering and prevent the worst-case scenario – a fractured, failed state exporting instability across the Horn of Africa. The international community must act decisively to seize this opportunity for meaningful intervention.