As the two-year anniversary of Sudan’s recent war, which began on April 15, 2023, approaches, there is hope that it will stop the collapse of Sudan and restore its geographic and political unity. This optimism is seen due to the success achieved by the army and allied forces in liberating the entire state of Khartoum. They expelled rebel forces and foreign mercenaries and cleansed the capital’s tri-cities. The restoration of the airport, the palace of the republic, the headquarters of ministries and sovereign institutions, the Central Bank, the headquarters of the General Command of the Armed Forces and its subsidiaries, radio and television, and the air bases surrounding Khartoum. The battles were bitter, lasted long. They began with the liberation of Omdurman. The liberation of Khartoum was the culmination of successive victories over the past six months. This paved the way for the liberation of Sinjar and Gezira provinces. The recapturing of Khartoum appears to be a major shift in the course of the ongoing war. It has removed the spectre of Sudan’s division and the collapse of its province. However, the goal of restoring Sudan’s unity and stability still needs to be completed.
After 24 months of fighting, during which the rebel forces (the Rapid Support Forces) appeared to have the upper hand on the ground most of the time, capable of sweeping across the central provinces and threatening the eastern provinces, this forced the Sovereignty Council, led by Army Commander General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to abandon Khartoum and move to a temporary capital in Port Sudan. The “General Command of the Armed Forces” was surrounded by the Rapid Support Forces, who wreaked havoc, looting, and violating civilian property, including Khartoum’s most upscale neighbourhoods, markets, and high-rise buildings. This forced most of Khartoum’s residents to flee and seek refuge outside Khartoum, or even outside Sudan altogether. In addition, the rebel forces destroyed Khartoum’s museums, universities, libraries, and factories. It was similar to the Tatars’ invasion of the capitals of the Islamic world at that time.
In short, the recapture of Khartoum appears to be a major shift in the course of the ongoing war. It has removed the spectre of dividing Sudan and destroying it as a country, but the goal of restoring Sudan’s unity and stability still needs to be completed and requires more than eliminating the rebellion. Sudan is a vast country, even after the secession of the south. Its current area is close to two million square kilometres, and its diverse natural resources are enormous, attracting the ambitions of regional and international lurkers. Its strategic location on the banks of the Red Sea and the course of the Nile River, and its ethnic and tribal composition is extremely complex, with more than 570 tribal groups. Its rule has altered between military and civilian system since declaring its independence in 1956. Its deadly internal wars have continued since before the declaration of independence, and its south separated from it a decade and a half ago. There is no hope of escaping the vicious circles of war except for the establishment of a central state in Sudan. The starting point is for a state apparatus to be established in Sudan. Its regard and services reach all corners. The story is bigger than civilian-military conflicts, and capricious preferences for military or civilian rule. This adds to the risks of fragmentation of the country. It is surrounded by mostly failed and semi-failed provinces, whose internal conflicts penetrate Sudan’s borders with its neighbours deep within Africa. The usual rounds of negotiations may not be of much use. In the most famous and longest war in the south, in which more than a million people were killed, post-war negotiations did not yield beneficial results, neither for Arab northern Sudan nor for its African southern Sudan. Preserving what remains of Sudan as a unified country requires restoring the character of the unified army, based on the principle of universal national conscription and forming a solid nucleus of Sudanese integration and homogeneity.
[by Abdel-Halim Qandil in Al-Quds Al-Arabi]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque