Last week we saw a set of developments, statements, and leaks which cannot be ignored. Russia appears in a defensive posture tinged with blackmail, while the United States pushes forward to lead a regional movement that, if successful, could lift Syria into an advanced position on the maps of energy production and transit.
These developments began with the meeting of Syrian President Ahmad Al-Shar’a with a delegation from the American company Chevron in Damascus a few days ago, to explore cooperation opportunities for oil and gas exploration along the Syrian coast. What stood out was the presence of representatives from the Qatari holding company UCC at the meeting. This company had led a coalition that included American and Turkish companies in a historic memorandum of understanding signed on May 29 in Damascus, to establish a number of electricity and solar-energy plants valued at seven billion dollars. The executive contracts for this memorandum were signed at the beginning of last month, and implementation has already begun.
A day after Al-Shar’a’s meeting with the Chevron delegation, an eye-catching statement emerged from Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin during a media appearance, where he said that Russian bases and military presence play an important role in stabilising the situation in Syria. This statement came just two days before Reuters published an investigation revealing two armed-insurgency projects on the Syrian coast – one led by Kamal Hassan, former head of military intelligence under the defunct regime, and the other by Rami Makhlouf, Bashar Al-Assad’s cousin. Both men operate from exile in Moscow.
According to Reuters, Russian authorities are aware of Hassan’s and Makhlouf’s projects, and have held unofficial and separate meetings with representatives of both men for several months. Although Moscow has not adopted either project, it has not obstructed them either. On the contrary, Russia even sent an encouraging message, telling representatives of Hassan and Makhlouf: “Organise yourselves and let us see your plans.” Reuters’ account adds that Moscow’s interest in both projects has recently declined, especially after Al-Shar’a’s visit to the Russian capital in October. Despite this, the Reuters investigation included highly detailed information from individuals working inside the insurgency projects or acquainted with them. Notably, the publication of these details coincided with the American move toward tapping into the subterranean wealth of the Syrian coast – and its potential strategic position as a platform for exporting energy to Europe – a wealth and position that remained under Russian dominance until the fall of the Assad regime.
These events coincided with the European Union’s decision to gradually halt imports of Russian gas by late two-thousand-twenty-seven, a move that compels Europeans to intensify their search for alternatives. Syria emerges as a source and corridor that could prove highly viable. This is what Washington appears to be banking on, as suggested by another indicator: a statement made days ago by the deputy executive director of the Syrian Petroleum Company, saying that Syria and Iraq are working to accelerate the rehabilitation of the Kirkuk–Baniyas pipeline, with American support and within broader regional and international efforts to strengthen energy connectivity between the two countries.
Thus it becomes increasingly difficult to dismiss the reading that Russia is pressuring and blackmailing the authorities in Damascus. Moscow did not host leaders of the defunct regime except to keep them as a Plan B – a card to play should no acceptable settlements be reached with the current Syrian leadership regarding Russia’s interests in Syria. According to leaks that followed Al-Shar’a’s visit to Moscow two months ago, the two sides agreed that the Russian bases in Tartus and Hmeimim would remain. But negotiations over the rest of the previous agreements are still underway.
[by EyadAljafari in Al-modon]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque