Uttar Pradesh, being the most populous State with over 21 crore citizens, is also the most important State in the electoral battle. The position of parties here has a direct bearing on the Parliamentary election results also. This State elects 80 Lok Sabha members.
Presently BSP and SP are the main contenders for power in the State. BJP, battered by internal problems, is trying hard to retain its present position. Congress currently holding fourth position in the Assembly is trying its best to improve its lot. In the confused situation it is almost impossible to predict who gets what position. Voters also understand that they need not lose their sleep over the results which would be out on March 6. But they are holding their breath and watching the high tension drama with keen interest. Muslims who form one-fifth of State population appear to be more confused than other communities. They understand that at least for the next five years their fortune in the State depends on the policies of the party or coalition which succeeds in capturing power. They have been the most neglected segment and economically, socially and educationally marginalised by succeeding governments, which did not give them anything except empty promises. They wonder whether they would improve their lot a little by supporting a party more sympathetic to their cause and more honest.
By and large UP Muslims had been voting for the big parties but this time they see impressive presence of Muslim parties in the form of Peace Party, Ulema Council, Welfare Party and some smaller outfits. There is one Ittehad Front also, a loose combination of about 20 outfits, formed on the eve of election to avoid splitting of Muslim votes.
For Muslims voting for communal and anti-Muslim BJP is out of question as they have suffered worst atrocities under its rule. Recent surveys indicate that they suspect that BSP may join hands with BJP when it is convenient for it. Congress is expected to get a better share of their votes this time. Muslim parties may get larger share of Muslim votes. But it is an open question how many seats they would be able to get. One thing is clear to the Muslims that they should not waste their votes by supporting unwinnable candidates whether from their own community or from the big parties. So let us wait and see whether the 4 crore-strong Muslims of UP use their democratic rights judiciously and skilfully.