There is no doubt that the diplomatic thaw between arch rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, quietly brokered by China, may usher a new era in the Islamic world, particularly in the Middle East region. It has potential to transform not only the geo-politics of the region but also the world at large.
Furthermore, China has also stunned the entire world with its peace diplomacy, a remarkable effort that has seated rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran at the same table. The result has been electrifying, which makes sense given that this may signal the start of a change in the global order.
Regardless of polarity or multipolarity, this handshake has, at least for the time being, stirred discussion about changes to come in the world. As the various Sunni and Shia strongholds in the region have resolved to put differences behind them and shake hands, under the watchful eye of a beaming China, the divisive and erratic American policy in the Middle East has now been exposed.
Of course, no country is more vulnerable to these developments than the US. The Biden administration’s foreign policy is in ruins as it is obvious that US dominance in the Middle East is waning.
China, which has continued to do business with both Saudi Arabia and Iran and is a significant oil consumer, quietly began the peace mediation process. When the deal restoring diplomatic relations between the two foes was inked, the world first learned about this. Both agreed to re-establish a security cooperation agreement that had expired throughout the years of acrimonious hostilities and signed off on a “respect for the sovereignty of states and non-interference in their internal affairs”. As a result of the agreement, host China is now a significant economic and political force in the world, no longer emerging but having arrived.
In the words of noted journalist Saeed Naqvi, “To gauge the importance of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement, mediated by China, it would be useful to see the evolution of this relationship since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. In an era aching for peace, such a radical development would undoubtedly be infectious. Just as the world sat up in wonder at the development, signals became discernible of quiet low-key efforts at repairing other parts of the frayed tapestry of West Asia. Deputy Foreign Ministers of Iran, Türkiye and Syria were headed for Moscow.”
A trilateral announcement on the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia for resuming diplomatic relations that were severed in 2016 was made in the first week of March after China hosted the previously undisclosed discussions between top Saudi and Iranian security officials. Countries in Asia and the Middle East were caught off guard by the news.
Iranian ambassador Iraj Elahi posted in New Delhi claimed Iran kept the negotiations under wraps out of fear of a “third factor” (obviously referring to the US).
While speaking with a small group of journalists at the Islamic Republic of Iran embassy for the first time following the agreement, the Iranian ambassador said it will have deep impacts on the region.
Responding to this scribe’s question on the revival of relations between both the Islamic nations, Elahi underlined that since Iran and Saudi Arabia are the major pillars of the Muslim world, the accord will have an impact on many facets of the area, including security, the economy, and culture.
“Saudi Arabia is a leading country in the Sunni world; Iran is a leading nation in the Shia world. It will affect the region positively,” he hoped.
Without a question, the agreement has the potential to alter the geopolitical dynamics of the region and put a stop to the numerous crises in Yemen, Syria, and other regions.
When asked about the conflict in Yemen, where Teheran is supporting the Houthi militia and Riyadh is supporting the coalition government with military backing, he said that everything would be settled in the end.
The agreement might also warn Israel, which has been utilising regional strife to its benefit. Several tiny Arab states forged diplomatic ties with Israel under the pressure of the US, which is the country that supports Israel the most.
Riyadh has recently exhibited a bit of empathy towards Israel, despite Iran’s foreign policy being firmly anti-US and anti-Israel.
Israelis were unprepared for this accord, which was mediated by an unfriendly China. More so, theagreement is likely to put the Saudis back on track as Iran’s attitude on Israel has remained largely unaltered and as it is implemented.
On the Israeli question, the Iranian envoy also dismissed any softening approach toward Israel. Israel, he claimed, is an occupying power on Palestinian territory. How can an occupant be recognised? He also dismissed a two-state solution to this oldest conflict in the region stating that it is not based on parity and equality.
Saeed Naqvi said,“This stand on Palestine, standing up to the Israel-United States combine obviously resonated in the Arab basement. This unnerved Arab potentates in dalliance with the Americans and Israelis. Playing up the “Shia axis of evil”, therefore served all their purposes. Even thinkers like Henry Kissinger began to amplify this propaganda. The region is no longer focused on the Palestinian question; they are worried about the Shia-Sunni divide.”
It is to be noted that the Israeli embassy in Tehran was turned over to the Palestine Liberation Organisation as a symbol of Iran’s decision to sever ties with Israel and support the Palestinian cause after the Islamic Revolution in February 1979.
During the Shah regime, Israel and Iran kept close ties ever since the creation of Israel in May 1948. And Türkiye was another country after Iran having diplomatic ties with Israel.
Some Gulf countries like the UAE and Bahrain are sitting in the lap of Israel. They may also reduce their ties with the Zionist entity following the resumption of relations between Riyadh and Tehran as it may reduce the footprints and influence of the US in the region.
The reconciliation will have an effect on Saudi Arabia’s position, which has fluctuated between silence and outright backing for Washington on all such problems. The deal to put an end to the seven-year conflict and establish embassies in each other’s capitals within two months will be the subject of much speculation around the world. Officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran had already spoken, indicating a desire on both sides to put a stop to hostilities.
And all parties have accepted and trusted China to move things further. There have been high-level visits. The president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, was recently in Beijing, and late last year, the supreme leader of China, Xi Jinping, was in Riyadh. It is obvious that Beijing will keep an eye on the bilateral relationship and play a significant part in preserving it. More so because it will benefit both adversaries in terms of freedom and sovereignty.
However, the agreement brokered by China did not go down well in the Indian foreign affairs ministry as China is considered a hostile country. India responded cautiously to the Iran-Saudi agreement, claiming that New Delhi has always pushed for negotiation and diplomacy to settle disputes.
Alluding to India’s concerns over China’s role; Iranian envoy Elahi said,“The resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia…would be to the benefit of India since it helps [strengthen] stability and peace in the region and security in the Persian Gulf.”
He asserted that India shouldn’t be concerned about the peace diplomacy of China in normalising relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia as it will boost Middle Eastern stability and security.
Despite [the agreement being achieved with] the mediation of China, he said, “it would be to the interest of India because a substantial portion of the Indian diaspora is in the Persian Gulf countries. It is not a concern for India, in my opinion”.
China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, praised his country’s role as a “good-faith and reliable mediator” in a statement and took a dig at the United States. “The world is not limited to the Ukraine issue,” the statement read, pointing to the crisis dominating American attention over the past year. “There are many issues related to peace and people’s livelihood that require the attention of the international community.”
China’s peace diplomacy has raised red flags in the US and the West, which have been exploiting the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
“China has truly arrived as a strategic actor in the gulf,” said Kristin Smith Diwan, of the Arab Gulf States Institute, quoted by The Washington Post.The influential Post published a detailed article with comments from the experts.
“What is notable … is the decision to hand the Chinese a huge public relations victory – a photo op that is intended to demonstrate China’s newfound stature in the region,” said Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. “In that sense, it would appear to be yet another Saudi slap in the face to the Biden administration.”
Aaron David Miller, a veteran former U.S. diplomat and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said the deal is a “clear sign” that Riyadh “no longer sees a unipolar world fashioned by Washington” and instead is operating in a more “multipolar” context, with “China and Russia playing critically important roles.” He pointed to the “stunning irony” of “China, America’s erstwhile international adversary, brokering a deal with Iran, America’s erstwhile regional adversary, while the U.S. Navy protects the sea lanes in the gulf ensuring Saudi exports of oil to China.”