Syria, the land of prophets and messengers, has become a chessboard of international politics, with numerous pawns and players involved in this game. Who will emerge victorious remains a question for the future, but the current developments suggest that Israel is reaping the most benefits.
One of the key agendas of Zionist forces is the establishment of “Greater Israel,” and a significant strategy to achieve this goal involves neutralising Israel’s neighbouring countries. Recently, Israel has effectively moved toward this objective. For the first time in Israeli military history, nearly 250 airstrikes were conducted in a single day. These strikes targeted centres in Syria deemed critical in military, intelligence, and strategic terms. According to the Israeli President and Defence Minister, these operations were carried out in defence of Israel and with future threats in mind.
Impacts on Israel’s Neighbouring Countries
It is evident that Israel has largely managed to align its neighbouring countries, Jordan and Egypt, with its interests. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s bases have been targeted, weakening the group significantly. Advanced missiles and other weaponry were used in these attacks, inflicting damage even on Hezbollah’s leadership. After Lebanon, Israel’s focus has shifted to Syria, which has long been a major adversary for Israel.
HTS and Israel’s Strategy
During recent developments in Syria, the growing influence of HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) is viewed by Israel as a potential threat. The map of Greater Israel presented by Zionist forces includes present-day Syria. On the other hand, HTS considers not just Syria but also the region encompassing Israel as part of its vision. This is why Israel perceives HTS as a future enemy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also highlighted this threat, stating that efforts are being made to keep chemical weapons and sensitive intelligence in Syria away from militant groups to prevent future risks to Israel.
Bashar al-Assad’s Setbacks and Israeli Operations
International media is reporting on the decline of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the advances of opposition militant groups, but there is little focus on the damage caused by Israeli operations. Recently, Israel not only carried out about 250 airstrikes but also deployed troops near the Golan Heights. These heights are approximately 30 kilometres from Damascus and 60 kilometres from Beirut. If Israeli forces establish ‘permanent bases’ in these heights, it could enable them to monitor the governments in Beirut and Damascus closely in the future.
U.S. Involvement
The involvement of the U.S. in recent Syrian events cannot be ignored. Former U.S. President Donald Trump once referred to Syria as a “land of deserts and death,” stating that the U.S. has no interest there. However, international analysts believe that the U.S. deep state, including intelligence agencies and arms dealers, remains active in Syria. Some experts suggest that just as the U.S. persuaded Iraqi military officers before Saddam Hussein’s downfall, American agents have gained access to Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle in Syria.
Iran and Syria
Iran has long supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime. During the protests against Assad in 2011 and the civil war in 2013, Iranian forces, the Revolutionary Guard, the Zainabiyoun Brigade, and Hezbollah fighters stood by Assad. Iran considered Syria a crucial front against Israel, and Hezbollah’s military support was facilitated through Syria. Recent developments and Assad’s defeat could deal a significant blow to Iran.
Russia’s Strategy
Russia, which has maintained a presence in Syria through its naval and air forces, tried to protect Bashar al-Assad. However, Russia is now embroiled in an international conflict and wishes to reduce its responsibilities in Syria.
Gulf Countries’Cautious Stance
The Gulf countries have adopted a highly cautious stance on Syria. This is because the various groups active in Syria’s opposition have a track record that concerns Gulf rulers. These groups’ ideologies are contrary to the governance styles of Gulf monarchies, posing potential threats to their regimes.
Recently, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman invited Bashar al-Assad to an Arab League meeting in Riyadh. This was the first Arab League meeting Assad attended in a decade. Assad hoped that the conference would lead to Gulf countries aiding him, but the outcomes were contrary to his expectations.
Among the militant groups in Syria are individuals from Gulf countries. These groups comprise young fighters with a militant mindset, whether from Chechnya, China, Uzbekistan, or Türkiye. The success of these militant groups could alarm Gulf rulers, fearing that it might incite unrest and rebellion in their own countries.
India’s Stance
India has adopted a cautious approach to the situation in Syria. However, Indian citizens stranded there were evacuated through the embassy. Relations between India and Syria have always been friendly, with embassies in both countries’ capitals.
For India, taking a clear stance on the current situation in Syria is challenging because the ideologies of the groups vying for power there do not align with India’s values. Nevertheless, India must take steps to protect its interests in Syria. India has much to offer Syria, particularly its social model, where diverse minorities and cultures coexist harmoniously.
India should step forward to play a leading role in Syria, as it has done in the past by supporting Palestine and opposing Israeli aggression. India’s economic interests could also be tied to Syria, and India could play a significant role in rebuilding the war-torn country.
Türkiye’s Interests
Turkey is another key player in Syria’s current situation. In 2017, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan played a crucial role in mediating an agreement between the government and opposition militants to control the Syrian civil war. Erdoğan has his own political goals.
First, to suppress Kurdish rebels who are causing unrest and demanding an independent state, Erdoğan supported militant groups that could counter the Kurds. Reports suggest that the U.S. has provided aid to these militants through Türkiye, with Türkiye’s consent.
Erdoğan’s second goal is linked to his vision of restoring the glory of the Ottoman Empire. A few years ago, he stated that they would pray in Damascus’ Umayyad Mosque and visit Salahuddin Ayyubi’s tomb. In a recent statement, Erdoğan claimed that there are now only two great leaders in the world: himself and Putin. Erdoğan aspires to bring the territories of the Ottoman Empire under Turkish influence, either by annexing them or by exerting political and economic dominance.
To achieve these objectives, Türkiye supported opposition militants. Türkiye’s influence in Syria is evident as Turkish currency circulates alongside Syrian currency, reflecting Türkiye’s efforts to establish political and economic control in Syria.
Now Türkiye seeks to establish a friendly government in Syria to play a role in the country’s reconstruction. This reconstruction is a major economic opportunity, as economics is prioritised over politics in the modern era.
Among the various groups active for change in Syria, HTS holds major influence. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has a complex and controversial past, having been associated with ISIS and al-Qaeda. However, he has now distanced himself from both organisations and expressed a willingness to adopt democratic values. HTS claims that Syria will be a democracy where all communities will have equal rights.
The Role of Russia
For Russia, Syria has always been significant, particularly as a counterbalance to American influence in the region. Russia supported Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad, for decades due to their alignment with the Ba’ath Party, which was ideologically closer to Russia and the communist bloc.
During the recent conflict, Russia attempted to protect Bashar al-Assad, but it now seeks to extricate itself from Syria. Another possible reason is that Iran and Russia warned Assad years ago to take necessary steps to improve the country’s situation. However, like many authoritarian rulers, Assad believed he was invincible and continued his oppressive policies.
Now, the atrocities coming to light are horrifying. Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, also committed severe atrocities against the Syrian citizens. In the 1980s, Hafez al-Assad killed thousands of Muslim Brotherhood members in a single day in cities like Hama. Oppression does not last long because the Creator’s law dictates that when oppression exceeds limits, it leads to downfall, and its consequences are evident in this world.
The Future of Syria
The change in power in Syria is impacting various forces and groups. The Sunni-majority HTS enjoys U.S. support, highlighting the irony of American policy toward Muslim fighters.
It remains to be seen whether Syria will follow the path of Lebanon and Iraq, becoming a weak state that provides security for Israel, or whether the Syrian people will finally achieve a government based on democracy and their aspirations after 54 years of oppression.
[The writer is Secretary, Markazi Taleemi Board, New Delhi]