The General Election, 2009 for the 15th Lok Sabha is for all practical purposes behind us. Nearly 2/3 of the seats have been covered in three phases and the final lists of candidates for the next two have been released. As D. Day approaches, the prospects become clear both for the politics of the nation and the situation of the Muslim community.
It can now be taken that no single party will come anywhere close to the magic figure of 272 to form the government on its own. We shall witness a long drawn-out power play in which the two major parties seek the support of the minor ones, in the process, poaching on the territory of the rival. Still it is doubtful whether INC or the BJP trying their best shall succeed to establish the support base of the former UPA or NDA. Also they cannot be sure of the loyalty of their old friends who have in the meantime defected to the other side or are prepared to return. In this game the INC has a built in advantage.
Despite the bitterness generated by the row over the US nuclear deal, the Left, along with the Third Front which it has crafted after it withdrew its support from the INC, has no option but to rejoin or extend its support to the INC from the outside. It may raise the price tag in the form of an ideologically tougher Common Minimum Programme, or a bigger share of patronage that goes with power.
The only incompatible factors will be the DMK which may now be forced to cede its place to the AIDMK, which after joining the Third Front stands consecrated as secular, and the TMC which may not feel happy about the Congress and the Left coming together. In addition how the INC satisfies the diverse demands or expectations of its old and new allies particularly the BJD, the JD(S) and the AIDMK, remains to be seen.
What is important is the fact that the political scenario is dominated by small and regional parties and their petty games, and the common man stands isolated, even forgotten, in a corner.
It has been said that all is fair in love and war, and now in politics. Therefore we should refrain from applying any moral or ethical standards to the behaviour of the political parties. The fact is that the General Elections 2009 has been singularly devoid of national issues or ideological clarity and deficient even in presenting competing visions of the future. Unencumbered by ideological baggage the parties will gladly jettison what remains of it, if the situation so demands. This applies to secular values, even humanitarian aspects. In electoral politics no party has felt any hesitation or shown any embarrassment in embracing old foes or fielding as candidates controversial persons who have been denied tickets on the bases of caste or ethnicity by their old parties. Winnability is compatibility. So we should not look too closely at the ideological contours of the government which finally take shape.
There has, no doubt, been verbal give-and-take on petty issues, perhaps to amuse the common voters or to gain brownie points. There have also been charges and counter charges dug up from past, also some turbulence arising from internal rifts. Realism now demands that both the major players will allow themselves to set anchor and not to drift away into uncharted waters to jeopardise their opportunity.
The most important political development has been the emergence of the Third Front which has thrown up more than half a dozen Prime Ministerial candidates. Its stated objective was to form a non-Congress, non-BJP government. This is not likely to be fulfilled. But to keep the BJP out of power, it will be compelled to play second fiddle to the INC-led UPA. The UPA has already forgiven the Left and is prepared to resume relations and admit it to the corridors of power; the same for SP. Only the dream of Mayawati may remain unrealised even if she wins 40 out of 80 seats in UP and demands the top post. INC or BJP may then prefer to form minority governments.
Another notable fact is that the Election 2009 has been a largely peaceful exercise, no major violence, no terrorist attacks, though there is no dearth of Bahubalis or Crorepatis in the field. Not many of them are going to win, thanks to the sagacity of the voter. But the Election Commission has ensured that they do not make too much noise or disturb the process. But how can it check personal bribery of the voter?
What about Muslim representation? As predicted in April 2009, it may not even reach the 2004 level of 37. This is due to a variety of reasons. No secular party has done justice to the Muslims in giving tickets or fielding them from winnable seats. Secondly, in states of direct contest between INC and BJP like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, M.P. and Chhattisgarh, the Muslim voters have been taken for granted as they have no option but to vote for INC. This explains that the INC has given Muslims one token seat in some and no seat in the others. Average (excluding BJP) may be just about 5% of seats contested!
On the other hand, in UP Muslims had several ‘secular’ suitors BSP, SP and INC. In Bihar, there is a real contest between RJD-LJP combination, the INC and the JD(U) which has invested its future in keeping Muslims happy. In West Bengal the INC-TMC alliance may upset the monopoly of the Left. Similarly, in Assam the AIDUF and the INC are sharing Muslim votes. In AP the TDP has emerged as a major force against INC. In Karnataka JD(S) and the INC are both claiming Muslim support. In Tamil Nadu DMK-INC combination has lost weight through defection of a number of partners. In any case both the Congress and the DMK have given only one seat to the Muslims. AIADMK has given none. In Kerala, it was the old rivalry between NDF and UDF, but for the first time the Left has put up a Muslim candidate in Kozhikode. All in all, the Muslims will be losers, as apart from their own sectarianism and Baradarivad, the secular parties have divided them, with the support of religious figures and paid propagandists.
But the Muslim community is no longer obsessed with numbers or with secularism as marketed by the parties as the ideology and is beginning to redefine its aspirations in terms of equality and justice, education, employment and development. Operationally the JCMOE did achieve some success in uniting Muslim voters at the constituency level in favour of one candidate but it has not achieved complete success. The community has to deliberate over its failure to recognise the most winnable and acceptable secular candidates which would have consolidated the unity. Despite everyone calling for unity, even religious organisations and institutions and the mediamen fanned division, supporting one party or the other. The elite as usual showed little interest. The intelligentsia, never receptive to politics, showed even less interest.
At the same time there has been a surprisingly wide acceptance of the basic Muslim demand for reservation. In a few places, the Muslim youth even raised the slogan “No Reservation, No Vote”, but few local Muslim leaders made it a condition for the acceptance of a party, or a litmus test for its secularism. But the JCMOE entered the field rather late in the day. It was unable to propagate its message as widely as it should have, or organise as many rallies as it could have to educate the Muslim voters. Thus Muslim electoral strategy for 2009 has succeeded only marginally. But a seed has been sown and the question of Muslim reservation is now on the national agenda, with more than half a dozen, nearly all national and regional parties, supporting it in principle. But it shall require much hard work to make a breakthrough, to defeat the conspiracy of silence, the game of deception by the government and the insensitivity of many friends.
Can Muslims launch a struggle without internal unity, without the support of religious denominations and Baradaris? Secular parties will always need Muslim votes but they will try to get them cheap as basement bargain.
A breakthrough can be achieved only by a committed Muslim organisation and the small and partial progress can be transformed into a permanent success within the next five years. Muslims have to build up a Muslim-based party, especially with the support of the youth if they are to establish a political dialogue with the potential customers on terms of equality.
One look at the map will show that 80% of the Muslim Indians, controlling 54 to 55 seats of Muslim concentration live in nine states – UP, West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra, Assam, Kerala, AP, J&K and Karnataka. One approach can be to concentrate only on these states and their constituencies concerned. At the grassroots level, it is not enough to convince and unite the Muslim community, but also to convince the secular Hindus and the other deprived sections of the nation on the rationale, logic and justice of their demands. Muslims are yet to address their constituency.
A beginning has been made because of late the Muslim mind has been spinning out a strategy to make it independent of the on-going political games in which they are never invited to participate. But the community has to ensure 100% enrolment and high turnout (except when in protest), select and groom potential leaders and build them up so that at election time, there is no dearth of candidates with a base among the people. Rising level of frustration and disenchantment with politics, which reduces them to the role of unpaid palki-bearers for the ‘secular’ parties would be replaced by a new thrust, based on market value.
Two other lessons the Muslims have learnt in this election. One is that their existence, identity and survival is not a gift of the secular parties and they are beginning to question why secularism is seen as a Muslim and not a national concern. The other lesson is that they no longer have a stake in the emergence of a stable and powerful government because by experience they have found that the more stable and stronger the government is, the more insensitive it is to the problems of the minorities and the weaker sections.
This writer had floated the Insaf Party in 1989 but it was a premature exercise. The Muslim community then did not understand the rational behind community-based party. It was dissolved in 1991. But in recent years there have been successful experiments with Muslim-based parties, particularly in Assam under the banner of AUDF which has to be analysed very carefully.
Muslims have also the example of TMMK in Tamil Nadu which has been operating in a politically barren terrain but its effort has to be noted by the Muslims of the North. The Muslims have also recently experimented in participation in people’s movements e.g. in West Bengal, hand in hand with the TMC. Also a major Muslim organisation, the JIH is engaged in developing a political line. The JUH, which has unfortunately been split into two factions, remains a big political force of great potential. And then the Muslim OBCs have to be politicised to come out of their shell and join the Muslim mainstream. In any case the entire community has been found to be a Backward Class by the Sachar Committee almost as backward as the SC/ST and more backward than non-Muslim OBCs.
The purpose behind this article is to propose that the Muslim organisations of national or state importance come together for consultations immediately after the election on formulating both long term objectives and short term programmes of action for the next five years. This gathering should not only have MPs and MLAs but also selected ex-MPs and ex-MLAs, who are still active. Some religious figures, journalists and educationists who have been involved in public life may be invited. After consultations it can take the form of National Muslim Political Convention under the banner of the JCMOE or otherwise but to get over divided loyalties and external influences such a Convention for its success must be preceded by a lot of home work so that various strands of political thinking, awakening and even dreaming which have emerged over the last 60 years after independence can be woven into a new political tapestry.
Today we are in a fortunate position; that nobody can today question our patriotism or our commitment to national unity and integrity or accuse us of conspiring to restore Muslim role or to stage another partition. Nor can anyone question the fact of our backwardness and the national imperative to uplift us so that we all contribute to nation-building and participate in its development.
Muslims are looking for a meaningful initiative and breakthrough but the Muslim leadership stands divided, in many cases committed to its old political connection. Leadership must come together to chalk out a road map which will take us forward. But success will need wisdom, vision, patience, selflessness and diligence. The JCMOE has set the tone and served its limited purpose. But it needs to be revived, reorganised and re-structured to attain the above objective, may be after an agonising appraisal of our past experiments and performance. Neither can we ignore the cracks that have appeared on the walls of the edifice in 2009 nor can we plunge into an uncharted ocean without knowledge and experience. We need to develop grassroots leadership as a source of renewal. On one hand, the people who have shown maturity have to be inducted, on the other, leaders must remember that the strength of a chain lies in its weakest link.
Even to work out the invitation lists and the agenda for the proposed Convention the JCMOE must hold several preparatory meetings. We do not have much time but we can assume a time-frame of five years to achieve our primary goal that out of about 45 seats of 30%+ Muslim concentration, we should be able to send on our own at least 10 MPs who will not act as bonded labour of this political party or the other, but raise the concerns of the community, act independently, without fear or favour, and force the government to take urgent action. The 10 can dominate the house if they know the way and have the will.