SOROOR AHMED takes us down the road of history to analyse some border disputes and resulting wars, and cautions us about some world powers which may encourage hostilities between India and China.
No two countries have such fortified natural boundary dividing each other than China and India. The great snow-capped 2,400-km long and 240-320 km wide Himalayan range works as the impregnable wall, yet these two countries with the largest populations on the globe have one of the oldest border disputes in the modern world.
Exactly 47 years ago the Chinese made several big holes in this wall and occupied a large part of Indian territory in Jammu and Kashmir and North-East. While the Aksai Chin, a part of Jammu and Kashmir, is still under its occupation, it voluntarily withdrew its forces from North Eastern Frontier Agency (NEFA), the earlier name of Arunachal Pradesh, sometimes after the war was over.
In October-November 1962 battle the Indian army suffered humiliating defeat. Not only the Chinese occupied modern day Arunachal and Aksai Chin, it also entered some parts of Assam. The Chinese invasion took the Indians completely off-guard notwithstanding the fact that Indians were well aware of their activities on the border.
The defeat shocked the Indian establishment, mostly its then Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, who till then was strongly espousing the cause of independent Tibet. That the Peoples Liberation Army could inflict such a devastating blow just 13 years after the October 1, 1949 Communist Revolution came as a surprise. Only a decade earlier the Chinese were locked in a grim bloody battle with the American and allied forces in Korea (1950-53).
In 1960s China did not have a good relationship with the then Soviet Union too. Though like the Soviet Union it was a Communist country yet it was trying to assert independently and by late 1960s it had several border clashes with the Russian army. So globally isolated China went on to invade India to, as it said, teach a lesson. The Chinese were, in particular, peeved at the support to Dalai Lama extended by Nehru. The latter fled to India in 1959 and India openly welcomed and supported him.
During 1960s China was not a big economic power. It was devastated by a series of famines, which led to the death of a large number of people. India, a fledgling democracy, was laying the foundation stones of its development.
While the revolutionary zeal was still fresh in Chairman Mao-tse-tung’s Communist China, neighbouring India, a democratic country, was a slow starter. Yet Nehru as a champion of Non-Aligned Movement and Third World countries wanted to emerge as a global leader. The Chinese invasion shattered his dream and 18 months later he died as a broken man.
Today Chinese economy is booming and after the United States it has the most advanced army in the world. China tested atom bomb in 1964 and hydrogen bomb in 1967. It has all sorts of latest weapons in its arsenal.
But India too has consolidated itself economically, politically and militarily. And the Chinese know this fact very well. Unlike in 1962 their army will not get an easy walk-over in India. There are indications that there is serious tension on the border between the two countries.
Border tension – be it anywhere in the world – is a relatively new phenomenon of history. And Chinese do have a sense of history. They know that the McMohan line is more an imaginary division than the reality. The emergence of the concept of nation-state and the use of modern weapons in warfare in the 19th century led to the creation of the borders all over the world. The one between China and India could never be demarcated clearly in the past as almost the entire region was colonised by the European imperialist powers.
Another problem with the border between these two Asian giants is that two of China’s huge provinces – Tibet and Xinjiang (Sinkiang or Eastern Turkestan) – which are situated just north to India, were not always the parts of that country. Just as India got independence in 1947, the concept of the modern China with Tibet and Xinjiang emerged only after the revolution of October 1949.
Initially India did not recognise the Chinese claim over Tibet, and there is no dearth of politicians in India who still question the Nehruvian policy. In fact the Communist Party of India got split on this issue in 1964 and the CPI (Marxist), which is a major ruling partner in West Bengal, holds Nehru – and not China – responsible for the aggression in 1962.
Five decades after the expulsion of Dalai Lama and six decades after the Communist Revolution, China is once again flexing its muscle. What will then China do? Will it attack India even when it has now a workable business relationship with it? China has made massive investment and thousands of Chinese citizens are working in India. In fact one telecom major has over 500 Chinese employees working all over India.
Chinese consumer items, electronic goods and toys have flooded the Indian market. China has opened up economically and politically and is no more living in isolation as was the case in 1962. Since the businessmen never want war for fear of their economic doom, it is argued that the Chinese multi-nationals would never want political tussle to turn into war. After all tension on border is certainly causing hurdle for Chinese and Indian businessmen travelling to each other’s country.
The presence of so many Chinese and Indians in each other’s country may certainly work as a check in the way of full-fledged war between the two countries. But history has many different examples too. When Japan attacked the United States on December 6-7, 1941, there were thousands of Japanese living in that country. In fact about 20,000 of them were jailed in the US on the ground of suspicion of being collaborators. European countries have fought many battles in the past notwithstanding the presence of their nationals in each other’s countries. So the presence of Chinese investment and entrepreneurs may not necessarily be a guarantee to peace.
Still it can be said with a fair amount of surety that China is not going to make the border dispute into a full-fledged war. Yet it will certainly resort to arm-twisting tactic. And it is through India that China will test the United States. With the Soviet Union’s dismemberment and the United States growing economically weak, especially after the recession, this would be the best time for China to flex its muscle. And there is no other region where China has so much interest as in the Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea.
It has already availed the facilities of Pakistani and Burmese ports for its trade. Rivers like Indus, Brahmaputra and Sutlej originate from that country. It has used the water of these rivers to wreak havoc in India. The Karakoram Highway passing through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir down to Karachi is a sort of lifeline to Chinese economy. The Kathmandu-Lhasa Highway has brought the Chinese too close to India. With Maoists still a powerful force in Nepal nothing can be ruled out.
History is replete with wars in which the enemies have taken a detour to reach the objective. The German invasion of France in 1940 is one such example. They did not attack the French army on the international border but came via Belgium and Holland where it met little resistance. Keeping this view, we should close eye on our presence on India-Nepal border in Bihar and UP to check their intrusion.
These are remote possibilities, but the ground reality is that China is, of late, creating problems for India. The problem with India is that it has to man extended borders with Pakistan in the west and Bangladesh and Myanmar in the east. Though the LTTE phenomenon is over yet our navy is exposed to all sorts of pressures. China now does not need to be apprehensive about Russia or Central Asian countries or Mongolia. Further, its coastlines are relatively free of trouble.
The American presence in South Korea, Japan or even for that matter in Taiwan is no big threat to the Chinese. The bourgeoning Chinese interest in Africa and the Middle East cannot be possible without the huge naval presence of that country in the region. In contrast we have no naval presence in South China Sea or anywhere near the Chinese coast.
The Chinese know that India is a reality and will remain so, but they want to achieve many objectives by war of words. For example de-stability in Pakistan is not in their long term interest as huge amount of business is done through the ports of that country. China would never like the US influence to grow in the region. In contrast the US wants to foment trouble in Tibet and in Xinjiang, which is essentially a Muslim dominated province almost one-sixth of the size of China. If western China is embroiled in trouble, the US will get an excuse to tell it that the threat of Islamic terrorism is a global reality.
True, the Obama administration recently dissuaded Dalai Lama from undertaking a visit to the United States but it would be in its interest that Xinjiang is thrown in turmoil. The Chinese are keeping a close watch on all these developments.
The truth is that China is not just interested in a patch of mountainous land in India but is taking every step very carefully and calculatedly. The strategists in North and South Blocs may hopefully be understanding the larger game plan. The United States may be the biggest beneficiary of the break-up of the concept of Chindia.