MOHAMMAD NAUSHAD KHAN analyses the scenario emerging in the backdrop of the results of the 16th Lok Sabha elections.
The gross debacle of the Congress Party and some regional parties has got political message for all not to take traditional vote base for granted. The message is loud and clear that if you don’t perform you will perish. Polarisation no doubt has helped the BJP this time but it may not be repeated in the future because India is on the move to attain a mature and dynamic democracy as we move from here, where only governance will hold the key, and not political rhetoric, divisive politics and imaginary goals. The mandate is for development, be it real or imaginary.
The verdict has provided all the parties with an opportunity to introspect seriously and to chalk out strategy and rejuvenate their respective cadres for the challenges ahead. The challenges for the BJP is even more greater because from now onwards the party has to deliver all that has been assured to the people of India while all other parties and communities will be taken on board to achieve the purpose. Let us hope the promises have been made with a sense of commitment rather than political gimmick.
The BJP is well known for its biased approach towards the minority community and its anti-minority plank. Despite all hate speeches and slanderous remarks towards the fag end of the electoral campaign, the basic theme of the campaign revolved around development whether hyped or otherwise. The biggest challenge for the BJP-led government is to create investment-friendly ambience to boost economy and it can only best be achieved when there is peace and growth-oriented atmosphere. All the contentious issues promised by the party in the manifesto, which are impediment to the growth and progress of the country and may create fissure between communities, should be kept on the backburner to expedite growth and at the same time to build confidence in minorities in particular and the large segments of masses in general.
The Hindu in its front-paged editorial on 17 May has reasonably outlined to put the message on the board that Mr. Modi emphatically asserts that his agenda is all about governance and economic change. But the reality remains that there is a huge trust deficit with the minorities, especially the Muslim community, which must be addressed. He is still regarded as a deeply polarising figure not really reaching out to minorities…. In order to close the credibility gap that persists as regards his acceptability to govern all Indians, Mr. Modi must ensure that the idea of India as a pluralist and inclusive landscape in which all citizens have equality before the law as constitutionally decreed, is upheld consistently and transparently, while he is in office as Prime Minister.
The BJP which won only 2 seats in 8th Lok Sabha polls in 1984 increased its tally to 85 seats in 9th Lok Sabha polls, 120 seats in 10th, 161 in 11th, 182 in 12th, 182 in 13th, 136 in 14th, 116 in 15th and now all time high in 16th Lok Sabha polls with 282. No matter how impressive has been the victory for the BJP but the briefing by L.K. Advani after the results were declared in which he said that it is yet to be ascertain about the factors that led to such victory because the party has won even from where the BJP had never won in the past. Now, it is further yet to be analysed as to why Advani was hesitant to admit the Modi factor or what was he trying to refer to between the lines. Advani may have his own reasons but many in the political circles believe that the role of money and machines cannot be completely ruled out.
A case of EVM tampering had come into light at Jorhat in Assam, before the polling commenced, when every time a button was pressed the vote automatically went for the BJP. It was more than enough to blow apart the trust and confidence of people in the free and fair conduct of the elections. Political parties at that point of time failed to raise the tampering issue in the desired manner. The Election Commission was required to look into the matter seriously to ensure free and fair polls. Was the Commission completely assured and satisfied that such tampering did not take at any other place in the country? On 18 May, Congress candidate from Mumbai North, Sanjay Nirupam who is defeated by huge margin has questioned the reliability of Electronic Voting Machines. He has asked the Election Commission to order probe into the functioning of machines. Nirupam also said that in Maharashtra all Congress candidates lost by margin of one to two lakh and this cannot happen without manipulation.
The other explanation of people’s temperament behind this overwhelming mandate has been rightly suggested by Javed Anand, general secretary, Muslims for Secular Democracy, and co-editor, Communalism Combat in his article ’ Sorry, World, we Tried’ in The Indian Express on 17 May that BJP-led NDA coalition had been trounced in the May 2004 general elections. The outgoing prime minister of the alliance government, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, pinned the blame for the debacle on the 2002 communal carnage in Gujarat, under the watch of a leader from his own party. Now, 10 years later, the same man has led a new NDA coalition from the front, notched up an impressive victory and is to be sworn in as prime minister. Modi’s success lies in a coalition of those who adore him for what happened in Gujarat in 2002 and those who ‘don’t care’ what he did then because he promises unbridled growth.
The poll outcome has been disaster for Congress, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, DMK and the Left. On the contrary, regional parties like TMC and the party led by Jayalalita performed remarkably well much beyond anybody had anticipated. The gross debacle of some regional parties has forced the political analysts to debate the emergence of a national party and end of the coalition era because the regional forces have failed to make a noticeable mark in the entire political scene. But at the same time it would be wrong to write off these regional forces because serious introspection will help them regain the lost glory soon.
The outcome of the elections for AAP was neither too good nor too bad, but certainly much below expectations, because the party was emerging as an alternate to the Congress and the BJP. But the party has to find out the fault line about what went wrong. The idea to form the government in Delhi with the help of a party which was the prime target of anti-corruption crusade was surely not a healthy idea because it gave the impression that the party is associated with the Congress no matter by what degree. The idea of the perception better than the rest got lost midway. Abruptly abdicating the post of the Chief Minister gave the impression that if the party is not in a position to face up Congress and the BJP in one state how can it overcome them nationally. If the decision was sought to form the government then why it was not sought to give up. Anyhow, the outcome of Punjab has kept the idea of the party get going because in the absence of any alternate the party will remain relevant elsewhere and still there is hope if it remains united and committed to the cause with clarity and transparency.
Only 23 Muslim candidates have been elected in the 16th Lok Sabha. The debate on the impact of Muslim votes is going on and people are drawing inferences accordingly and the demand for fresh thinking in order to make the Muslims votes along with like-minded communities more effective and result oriented is being talked upon. Dr. Zafarul Islam Khan, president, AIMMM in an interview to The Hindu on 17 May said that with the BJP becoming so powerful in national politics now, Muslims would soon be made irrelevant. Meanwhile, Maulana Syed Jalaluddin Omari, Ameer JIH, while addressing a public meet in the national capital on 17 May asked the Muslims not to be afraid and face anything untoward by strictly remaining within the framework of the law and as enshrined in the Constitution and asked them to strictly refrain from any violence no matter how provocative things may turn.