MOHAMMAD NAUSHAD KHAN analyses the political overtone of Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Uttar Pradesh, because of its numerical strength, attracts enormous political clout and catches imagination of leaders and public in equal dimension. But during the last one decade, the role of northern state in changing the post-poll scenario has got decreased substantially due mainly to the fractured mandate. No doubt, Uttar Pradesh had some role in recent past but certainly not the dominant role in post-poll equation. Will it be different this time?
When Akhilesh Yadav took over as the youngest chief minister of the state with overwhelming support from across all sections irrespective of the caste and religion, the perception drawn at that point of time was that the Samajwadi Party will play a dominant role with more than 50 seats to its kitty after the polls and its chief Mulayam Singh Yadav would be in the race for one of the prime ministerial candidates after the polls. But the big question: what went wrong and how that notion got vanished? Probably, the SP can have the reasonable answer after serious introspection.
The first and the foremost potential reason which many believe is the way the party handled the law and order situation in the state. Secondly, failure to control Muzaffarnagar riots and irresponsible statements made to conceal ineffective handling of the situation. And notably, the government did nothing to fulfil the promise of reservation to Muslims in proportion to their population as promised in the manifesto.
The Supreme Court has recently said that the Uttar Pradesh government was negligent and failed in protecting the fundamental rights of the people. An Apex Court Bench headed by Chief Justice P. Sathasivam while responding to petitions filed by riot victims, non-governmental organisations and residents of Muzaffarnagar holds the state government responsible for being negligent in the beginning and for failing to anticipate the communal violence and the action that was required for its prevention. In the Muzaffarnagar riots more than 50 people were killed and more than 50 thousand people were rendered homeless.
It is not only the Samajwadi Party to be blamed because all parties failed to do what was required of them as being representatives of its people. The Centre had a dilly-dallying approach and failed to exert pressure on the state government. The BJP, instead of coming out to help people, fuelled the flare-up by felicitating riots accused. Surprisingly, political parties in Uttar Pradesh have fielded five candidates accused in the Muzaffarnagar riots cases to contest Lok Sabha polls. Bhartendu Singh from Bijnore, Sanjeev Baliyan from Muzaffarnagar and Hukum Singh from Kairana are contesting on BJP tickets. Samajwadi Party has fielded Nahid Hasan while RLD Kartar Singh and BSP Kadir Rana. But what is even more surprising is that husband and wife (both Muslims) are fighting each other in Muzaffarnagar. Qadir Rana is BSP candidate while his wife Shahida Begum is contesting as an independent.
Vidya Subrahmaniam in the article, “The shifting sands of Muzaffarnagar” in The Hindu on 29 March has attempted to project the ground reality. Six months ago, a raging communal conflagration in and around Muzaffarnagar, had destroyed the social fabric of the region, leading to a bitter polarisation of the hearts and minds, and shaking up patterns of political choices made in the long years of Hindus and Muslims living together. On a visit to these parts, it is evident that the passage of time has not lessened the anger and pain. Indeed, as the two communities relive the nightmare, scorn and hate gush forth, with both sides affirming that relationships have soured irreparably.
The big question: how would Muslims vote this time and what impact will it have on the poll outcome? Figures available with NES Data, CSDS- Lokniti reveals voting pattern of Muslims in 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections. In 2004, 14.3 per cent Muslims voted for the Congress, 61.6 per cent Muslims voted for Samajwadi Party, and 10.1 per cent Muslims voted for BSP, while BJP received 2.5 per cent and others 11.4 per cent. In 2009, 34.6 per cent Muslims voted for the Congress, 30.2 per cent for the Samajwadi Party, 18.50 per cent for the BSP, while BJP received 6 per cent and 21.7 per cent Muslims for others. In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, Samajwadi Party won 23 seats, Congress 21 seats, BSP 20 seats, BJP 10 seats while others won 10 seats. Apart from all other factors caste also play some role in elections. In the caste community breakup there are 18.5 per cent Muslims, Brahmins 9.2 per cent, Rajput 7.2 per cent, Yadavs 8.7 per cent, Jatavs 11.8 per cent, Kurmis 3.6 per cent and Pasis 3 per cent. The figures including others add up to 20.5 per cent for Upper Castes, 39.9 per cent OBCs and 21 per cent SC.
The decision of Narendra Modi contesting from Varanasi and Mulayam Singh from Azamgarh may sound as symbolic for them for one reason or another. But BSP chief, Mayawati, while talking to reporters at a press conference in Lucknow on 20 March, said that Mulayam contesting from Azamgarh and Modi from Varanasi is a conspiracy to give Hindu-Muslim colour before elections. She asked the people from both the communities to thwart such a communal plot.
The political parties in the fray in UP are the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Indian National Congress, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP) Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) Communist Party of India (CPI). Aam Aadmi Party is the new player and has fielded candidates in all 80 seats. Battle for Varanasi in between Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal has made the election in Uttar Pradesh much more interesting and challenging for all other parties.
What impact the new party will have in the national scenario and how it could shape the national political landscape has been rightly answered by Rudolph in his recent journey to India to receive Padma Bhushan. Academicians Lloyd and Susanne Rudolph, after receiving the Padma Bhushan award on 31 March said that there could be significant change in Indian politics if AAP performs well in the Lok Sabha polls. Both, in the last six decades, have extensively researched on Indian democracy and elections and are presently professors at the University of Chicago. In an interview to PTI, Rudolph said, AAP as far as I can see is an urban party and is more appealing to middle class and younger people. If it does well in other cities, then there will be something significant in Indian politics.