The United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN–HABITAT) is the United Nations agency for human settlements to promote socially and environmentally sustainable towns and cities with the goal of providing adequate shelter for all. According to its 2006 Annual Report, sometime in the middle of 2007, more than half of people worldwide will be living in towns and cities, for the first time in history; this is referred to as the arrival of the “urban millennium”.
REASONS FOR URBAN GROWTH
The terms “city” and “urban” are often used interchangeably and there is no international agreement on the exact definition. However, most countries agree that settlements of 20,000 or more are urban. The term “city” usually implies urban centres with large populations. Settlements expand and become urban for different reasons such as increased prosperity from agricultural exports, tourism, industrialisation, etc. People are attracted to cities for jobs, healthcare, education and higher standards of living. In developing countries the population growth reflects three basic factors: (1) migration from rural areas; (2) natural population increase (births minus deaths) among urban residents; and (3) reclassification of previously rural areas as urban as they change character. Factors that push people out of the countryside include the deteriorating quantity and quality of agricultural lands, poor market infrastructures and lack of supporting institutions, such as sources of credit for small-scale farmers.
THE FORECAST
The world is caught up with rapid urban growth with an estimated 180,000 people being added to the world’s urban population each day. By 2050 over 6 billion people, two thirds of humanity, will be living in towns and cities. North America and Europe’s urban areas already account for about 70-80% of the regions’ populations, and these are expected to stabilise at these levels. Future trends show that 93% of urban growth will occur in Asia and Africa, and to a lesser extent Latin America and the Caribbean. Urban populations are set to double in African and Asian cities over the next 30 years, from under 2 billion in 2000 to nearly 4 billion by 2030.
THE DAWN OF MEGA-CITIES
Many cities have grown exponentially, with a total of 20 cities now boasting populations of over 20 million, compared to just two (New York and Tokyo) in 1950. The United Nations coined the term ‘mega-cities’ initially to describe cities with 8 million or more inhabitants; the UN’s present threshold for mega-city status is 10 million. Even as the mega-cities (more than 10 million people) of the world will continue to grow, the majority of the population growth will be in urban areas of 500,000 people or fewer. The status of Indian ‘mega-cities’ vis-à-vis global mega-cities is as under:
Sr No
City
Population 2001 (millions)
Rank amongst mega-cities
Population 2015
(millions)
Rank amongst mega-cities
% Growth
Tokyo
26.5
1
27.2
1
1
Mumbai
16.5
5
22.6
3
36 %
2
Kolkata
13.3
7
16.7
9
25 %
3
Delhi
13.0
9
20.9
5
60 %
URBAN POVERTY
While it is true that most of the poor are from rural areas, urban poverty too is increasing. According to the World Bank, 30% of poor people live in urban areas. By 2020 the proportion is projected to reach 40% and by 2035 half of the world’s poor people are projected to live in urban areas.
Slums: The year 2007 saw the number of slum dwellers hit 1 billion. The numbers living in slums have also spiked, being worst in sub-Saharan Africa, where slums make up more than 70% of the urban population. According to Inga Bjork-Klevby, Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations, the number of people living in slums will double to two billion by 2030 if urgent action is not taken. UN Habitat has classified five main features facing slums: lack of durable housing, insufficient living area, lack of access to clean water, inadequate sanitation, and insecure tenure.
Housing: One-quarter of all urban housing units in developing countries are temporary structures and more than one-third do not conform to building regulations. It is particularly difficult for the urban poor to obtain tenure because property registration processes are complicated and expensive. The process is even more difficult in the case of informal settlements. Many governments hesitate to legalise them for fear of encouraging more illegal settlements. Outdated government regulations controlling land acquisition and construction of housing coupled with rapid urban population growth have made land scarce which in turn has inflated housing prices. Estimates from various countries show that it would take low-income households 15 to 30 years of saving 30% to 50% of their income to afford a house meeting regulatory norms and minimum standards. In reality, most of the urban poor earn too little to save any money at all. Furthermore, they lack access to credit from commercial lending institutions.
OTHER CHALLENGES POSED BY URBANISATION
Some of the key issues to be tackled by urban planners and administrators are ensuring uninterrupted water and power supply, affordable education, efficient public transport systems, sanitation and proper sewerage and waste disposal facilities, controlling air pollution, tackling street crime, drugs and prostitution.
ISLAMIC URBAN TOWN PLANNING
All the contemporary principles of modern Urban Town Planning can be incorporated within the Islamic framework with a unique paradigm. Aesthetics, safety, slum and urban decay management, reconstruction and affordable and efficient transport systems will be pursued to perfection. A true Islamic economy based on zakat, interest-free banking and equity based investments will allow the government to be benevolent and ensure adequate housing, water, power, and sanitation at affordable or subsidised rates for all its citizens. Higher education facilities and access to interest-free credit in rural areas will decelerate the pace of migration to urban areas and reduce the load onto cities. A detailed vision of Islam’s answer to urbanisation needs more study and research. Muslim countries must establish an ideal Islamic urban city and demonstrate how Islam tackles the challenges of urbanisation. Only then can Muslims expect the urban millennium to become the Islamic millennium.