US President Donald Trump’s just concluded two-day visit to India in an election year in America was quite significant in many ways. One needs to look at it beyond the optics and expressions used to shower praise on each other. One also must keep in mind that any US leader would bother about India’s interests only till Washington’s own interests are not hurt.
The first day of his visit was full of optics, which he used to show to the people at home how Trump was welcomed in the largest democracy in the world where he addressed a gathering of over one lakh people at Motera Cricket Stadium (also called Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel Stadium), Ahmadabad. This may help him gain the support of Indian-Americans, particularly those having ultra-nationalist views, during the coming Presidential elections.
The truth is that both countries need each other in the emerging geopolitical global scenario, particularly in what is now called the Indo-Pacific region. The US considers the deepening cooperation between New Delhi and Washington as an essential component of its Indo-Pacific policy to contain the fast expanding Chinese presence in the region. The speed with which China has been acquiring technological, economic and military muscle with a plan for a vast global maritime presence is not only a matter of concern for India but also for the US.
The US is bound to be conscious of China’s programme to increase its naval power with a view to realising its dream of emerging as a future super power. Closer strategic and maritime cooperation between India and the US can send a strong message to Beijing that it cannot be allowed to alter the balance of power in the region and the world. The US would be happy if the realisation dawns on China that India is capable of meeting the challenges Beijing has posed in the race for regional dominance. Since the Chinese expansionist designs have a strong India factor, too, a high-level India-US strategic cooperation can be effective in maintaining America’s super power status.
China’s military strength and economy are both growing at a faster rate to pose a threat to US supremacy at the world stage, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. China today has a $3 trillion (2017 estimates) economy, largest in the world in purchasing power parity and second largest in terms of GDP. It has been acquiring more and more economic muscle after it changed its centrally-planned system to a market-oriented economy.
The US problem in the Indo-Pacific region is also regarded by India as a challenge to it emanating from China. Therefore, if the US takes measures for containing China in India’s immediate neighbourhood – Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan – it serves India’s interests as well. The US can weaken the Chinese strategy of having a strong string of pearls around India if Washington works on it seriously.
An idea about China’s policy of making India’s neighbours less interested in any kind of help from New Delhi can be had from Beijing’s large-scale investments in the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries. China is trying to keep these countries in a debt trap with a view to effectively influencing their policies and programmes.
According to an estimate by Standard Chartered Bank, the pledged Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)-related Chinese investment in Bangladesh stood around $38 billion till July 2019. China has made different kinds of investments in Bangladesh, the maximum being in the power sector, which has led to many foreign affairs experts seeing Dhaka slowly but surely slipping into the Chinese debt trap.
So far as Sri Lanka is concerned, it too remains deep in foreign debt – about $66 billion in all – and China holds 12 per cent of it, the biggest chunk, according to the figures released by the island nation’s Finance Ministry.
This is true about Nepal and Myanmar also. In Nepal and Myanmar, over 90 per cent of the total FDI comes from China. China is Myanmar’s second-largest source of foreign investment and its top trade partner. From 1988 to 2019, approved Chinese investments amounted to more than $20 billion, nearly 26 per cent of the total FDI in that country.
Pakistan has virtually become a China colony with Beijing’s huge investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which begins from the one end of Pakistan bordering China (Xinjiang province) to the other end touching the Arabian Sea where Pakistan’s Gwadar seaport is located.
The prevailing global situation makes India an attractive destination for US partnership in different fields. It was obvious why President Trump was happy to sign India-US deals to speed up the supply of 24 military helicopters worth $2.6 billion to New Delhi. If the purchase of the helicopters along with the techno-commercial US offer for the construction of six nuclear reactors in India was essential for New Delhi, these will also help infuse a new life into the sluggish US defence industry.
It does not matter much if the much-awaited trade deal between the two sides remains to be finalised later this year. The road for it has been cleared.
President Trump, however, did not commit much for India in the ongoing Afghanistan peace process except for New Delhi and Washington reiterating their resolve to ensure that it remains Afghan-led and Afghan-owned. In the joint statement issued after the conclusion of Trump’s India visit, there is no mention of an arrangement to prevent Pakistan from interfering in Afghanistan’s internal affairs through Islamabad-backed Taliban factions, which will be part of the power structure in Kabul after the planned complete troop withdrawal from there by the US in a few months.
India is obviously happy to get fresh US commitments to stamp out cross-border terrorism from South Asia and elsewhere. However, there is nothing new in it.
In the area of technology, President Trump welcomed the promises made by Prime Minister Modi and some CEOs of India that they were on the job to see to it that the Chinese telecom giant Huawei is out of the Indian 5G network soon as a result of Indian investments made for skill development in the US.
A closer study of the joint statement shows that there was no big deal between the two sides as it happened in the case of the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between New Delhi and Washington when India had the Manmohan Singh government and the US administration was led by President George Bush.
Yet the Trump visit was satisfying for India. Among the major gains that came its way was a strategically significant renewed assurance from President Trump that the US would extend full support to India for realising its dream of becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council once it gets expanded as demanded by many countries in view of the changed global scenario.