When US President Donald Trump resorts to using the weapon of economic siege and sanctions against Iranregardless of whether they are the largest or smallest sanctions in history,it means that the military option he has pursued over the past six months has failed to achieve the desired objectives of the war: namely, forcing Iran to surrender to all American conditions and demands. So far, the exact opposite has happened.
Trump was blinded by arrogance, stupidity, and misleading and poisonous Israeli intelligence regarding the Iranian adversary’s political and military capabilities, the strength of its regime, the enormous popular support surrounding it, and, most importantly, its exceptional management of the war and its sophisticated and coordinated use of military, political and diplomatic instruments of power.
Trump is breathing his last politically and struggling for survival, attempting to achieve any kind of ‘victory’ that could provide him with a lifeline. But his chances of escaping the very deep shock into which his Israeli allies have dragged him appear extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Just as the American military option failed to achieve any of its objectives despite its enormous scale, the economic siege will also failand perhaps fail even more decisively.
Iran is effectively a continent. It covers nearly two million square kilometres, possesses fertile land, and has a population of more than 95 million people that cannot simply be starved. Its people consume what they produce, while its domestic industrial production meets many of its own needs and requirements. On top of that, Iran is surrounded by friendly Muslim countries and populations.
The military option is designed to settle a war quickly. An economic siege, by contrast, prolongs the conflict and makes extracting its intended benefits extremely difficult.So, does Trump and his administration have enough time to reap these uncertain rewards,especially with only three months remaining before the midterm elections?
There are also no signs that his allies in either the West or the East are prepared to participate in such a siege, fearing its consequences.
China has made clear through its president that it will not comply with Trump’s demand to impose a siege on Iran, a country allied with Beijing. The same can be said of Russia.Even most of America’s Gulf allies will not risk their security, stability and very existence simply to comply with pressure from the US president, particularly after he failed them militarily and did not protect them or their enormously expensive military bases from Iranian missiles and drones.Perhaps the hastily assembled Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani Makkah alliance is one of the clearest indications of this changing regional reality.
If Trump has not ruled out returning to the failed military option,which has damaged America’s prestige as a superpower and exposed the limitations of its weapons and military capabilities,Iran is preparing itself carefully for that possibility.
Indeed, Iran may even be the side that initiates the military option. Statements from Iranian leaders point in that direction.Major General Ahmad Vahidi, commander of Iran’s IRGC, said that his country and its striking arms would continue strengthening the production of defensive and offensive military industries across all fields in order to raise levels of military readiness.
Meanwhile, Major General Ali Abdollahi, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, warned the US and its president that any miscalculation by the enemy would be met with ‘crushing, deterrent and destructive revolutionary responses’.
The final warning came from Gen. Hossein Mahbubi, spokesman for the IRGC, who promised the enemies that major surprises were on the way and would be revealed in future military confrontations.According to him, these surprises would involve the size and effectiveness of missile warheads, their range, and the accuracy of their strikes.
[by Abdel Bari Atwan in Rai Alyoum]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque