As soon as the Syrian (Bashar Al-Assad) regime fell, Israel realised that it had a golden opportunity to restructure its surroundings, particularly since this fall also meant the collapse of the “axis of evil” and the Iranian “ring of fire” theory.
But it was not prepared for the possibility that this axis would be replaced by a new force with ambitions and objectives no less daring than what it was, and perhaps greater than that. This is a powerful Türkiye which wants to reshape the Arab East in a way which guarantees it a leading position even in the face of Israel.
Soon after that, analyses began in Israel about what is now being seen as a new threat, namely Türkiye and its influence, on its borders.
From Israel’s point of view, the ongoing strong rapprochement between Türkiye and both the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates made matters worse, particularly after Saudi Arabia agreed to purchase 100 modern Turkish Qaan aircrafts.
Israel fears more than anything the crystallisation of a “Sunni” axis which would replace the Shiite axis and stand in its face.
Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that “the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is about to change the balance of power in the Middle East – in light of Türkiye’s renewed entry as a regional superpower, which could lead to a direct confrontation with Israel.”
The newspaper observed that Türkiye has invested significant military and economic resources in Syria since 2011, not only to strike the Kurdish project but also as part of aspirations to restore Ottoman positions.
Dr. Hai Eitan Yanrojik, an expert on Turkish affairs at the Moshe Dayan Centre at Tel Aviv University, said that the Turks “after they succeeded, with an instant step, in expelling Iran and Russia from Syria, are seeking to fill the emerging vacuum.”
In his view, the pursuit is not limited to northern Syria but also extends to the south. If it observes Turkish positions, Israel sees Ankara’s plans to re-establish the Hejaz railway between Istanbul and Damascus, and pave a highway between Türkiye and Syria.
In addition to the establishment of Turkish airports and ports in Syria, Israel also fears the annexation of parts of Syria, which would reduce Cyprus’ economic waters and prevent the extension of gas pipelines linking Israel, Cyprus and Greece.
Before the news of the developments in the relationship between Türkiye and Saudi Arabia and the UAE was published, Israel, as Yenrojik says, was imagining the emergence of two central alliances in the region: the Israeli alliance, consisting of Cyprus and Greece, alongside Jordan and the UAE, with Saudi Arabia in the background. In contrast, the Turkish alliance with Syria, Lebanon and Libya. In this context, the significant improvement in Turkish-Egyptian relations cannot be ignored, which opens the door wider for the crystallisation of an important regional power to confront Israel.
The news of the Turkish-Saudi agreement to purchase 100 Turkish stealth aircraft similar to the American F-35, worth billions of dollars, has shaken Israeli perceptions of the intensity of the rift between the two countries.
Although the deal in one sense means Saudi Arabia’s intention to reduce its dependence on America, it will also mean strong support not only for the Turkish economy but also for Türkiye’s regional standing.
[by Hilmi Mousa in Al Jazeera]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque