Uncertainty in Sudan

The departure of Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan from the Sudanese Armed Forces headquarters after five months of conflict raises crucial questions about the path ahead. Will this move lead to negotiations, or will it fuel further escalation in the war?

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The exit of Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan from the headquarters of the Sudanese Armed Forces after five months of war created some ripples. It unleashed several analyses and interpretations, starting with how it was done, and ending with the steps which might follow, and what will happen next. The most important question which was focussed was: Will the army commander’s departure lead to a negotiated solution, or an escalation in the war?

Al-Burhan did not categorically confirm that his exit was an indication of his desire for a negotiated solution. Rather, the strict tone he used in his speeches suggested otherwise, at least for the time being. There are also indications that by talking about a “new” transitional period, he may be preparing for the formation of a caretaker government, particularly since nobody is satisfied with its performance of the current designated government. Rather, most people do not feel its existence and do not know the names of most of its ministers. Perhaps the army leadership thought that the formation of an interim government will satisfy the citizens who are complaining about the continued absence of the executive apparatus and manifestations of the state and services, at a time when their suffering is intensifying. It also believed that this government will be able to respond to the talk of some neighbouring leaders such as Kenya and Ethiopia about a “leadership vacuum” in Khartoum. However, the formation of such a government will not be without obstacles or problems, even if it is a government of competencies.

[by Osman Mirghani in Asharq Al-Awsat]

 

Compiled and Translated by Faizul Haque